Transcript 슬라이드 1
Emerging Regional Economic Architecture: Outlook for the ASEAN-Plus Processes and TPP A Presentation at the International Conference on Asia-Pacific Regional Economic Integration and Architecture Auckland, March 5, 2010 Professor Sung-Hoon Park Graduate School of International Studies Korea University [email protected] Order of Discussion I. Issues at Stake II. Revisiting the Old Initiatives III. Exploring New Initiatives IV. Remaining Issues I. Issues at Stake • Increasing Worldwide and Asia-Pacific Regionalism • United States since Mid-1980s • Asian Financial Crisis 1997 • APEC’s Difficulties to Achieve Bogor Goals (Crises) • New and Old Initiatives for Asia-Pacific Regional Architecture • Old: APEC; ASEAN+1; ASEAN+3; East Asia Summit • New: TPP-4; TPP-8; FTAAP; APC; EAC, etc. II. Revisiting the Old Initiatives • East Asian Processes • East Asian FTA? • Form/Coverage/Membership • Northeast Asian Processes • China+Japan+Korea (CJK)? • Korea+China? • Japan+China? • Asia-Pacific Processes • ASEAN+X and the ASEAN-Centrality • FTAAP a Solution? III. Increasing New Initiatives: Asia-Pacific Community (APC) • What Differentiation to Existing and Old Initiatives? • Community for What? • ASEAN as an Entity or on the Basis of Individual Countries? • ASEAN-Centrality Abandoned? • Loose End for Membership a Main Feature? • United States • Russia III. Exploring New Initiatives: East Asia Community (EAC) • What Differentiation to Existing and Old Initiatives? • Community for What? • Membership Issue • United States? • India? • Russia? • Vehicle of Cooperation and Integration? • Trade and Investment? • Diplomacy and Security? III. Exploring New Initiatives: FTA of the Asia-Pacific (FTAAP) • From the Scratch or Using Stepping Stones? • • • • An APEC-wide Negotiation? TPP’s as a Stepping Stone? ASEAN+X as a Stepping Stone? Linking (Docking and Merging) Sub-regionals? • Other Issues to be Resolved • Roadmap • TPP-4TPP-8TPP-10FTAAP?: Commitment Strong Enough? • ASEAN+3ASEAN+6 (EAS)ASEAN+X? • NAFTA+AFTA+? III. Exploring New Initiatives: Trans-Pacific Partnership (TPP) • Initial Launch and Membership Expansion Planned • TPP-4TPP-8Tpp-10(?)TPP-21(?) • Europe’s “Staged Regionalism” as a Model? • A Number of Obstacles Expected • Asia-Pacific Diversity and the Final Goal? • A Divide in Asia-Pacific a Big Risk To be Addressed • The “Leadership” Problem • United States? • What Role for China? • What about “ASEAN” as an Entity IV. Remaining Issues • Asia-Pacific Diversity • ASEAN-Centrality • Areas of Cooperation • Trade and Investment the Only Cooperation Area? • Security? • Financial/Monetary Cooperation? • Modality of Cooperation • OECD Modality? Thank You Very Much!