Transcript PACOM Socio-Economic Challenges TSDM 21 Source: NWC Faculty

PACOM Socio-Economic
Challenges
TSDM 21
Source: NWC Faculty
India—Basic Facts
•Population: 1.189 Billion
•Age structure (0-14 yrs)
•187,450,635 males; 165,415,758 females
•Life expectancy at birth: 66.8 years
•Head of Government: Prime Minister Manmohan
SINGH; Chief of State: President Pratibha Devisingh
PATIL
•GDP (PPP basis): $4.060 trillion (compare with
China [$10.090 trillion] United States [$14.660
trillion])
•GDP Real Growth Rate: 10.4% (2010 est.)
•Labor force: 478.3 million
•Labor force by occupation:
•Agriculture: 52%
•Industry: 14%
•Services: 34%
•Population below the poverty line: 25%
•Public debt: 51.9% of GDP
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World’s Largest Economies: 8 are Located within
the Asia-Pacific region
India
(5th Largest)
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*numbers are based on purchasing power parity and are 2010 year estimates; accessed from
https://www.cia.gov/library/publications/the-worldfactbook/rankorder/2001rank.html?countryName=India&countryCode=in&regionCode=sas&rank=5#in
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India: Mass Protests against
Government Corruption (Jan 2011)
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Illegal Migration/Trans-border Crime Concerns: India
builds border fence next to Bangladesh (Tripura)
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Kashmir: Key Flashpoint in South Asia
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Pakistani Helicopter patrols Line of Control (near
Siachen)—in Pakistani-administered Kashmir
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ASEAN Basics (part 1)
• The Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN)
was founded on August 8, 1967
– With adoption of the ASEAN Declaration in Bangkok,
Thailand
– Originally, ASEAN had 5 members (Indonesia, Malaysia,
Philippines, Singapore and Thailand)
• Expanded to its current 10 (with addition of Brunei Darussalam,
Vietnam, Laos, Burma and Cambodia)
• “Formation of the organization reflected an attempt to forge
independent foreign policies in the context of Cold War pressures.”
• On February 24, 1976, ASEAN created the ASEAN Secretariat,
located in Jakarta, Indonesia (headed by a Secretary-General, who
serves a five-year term)
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ASEAN Basics (part 2)
• The ASEAN Charter
– The new ASEAN Charter went into effect on December 15,
2007, superseding the ASEAN Declaration; the Charter is
effectively a constitution for ASEAN, committing the
member states to create an “ASEAN Community in
furtherance of peace, progress and prosperity of its
peoples.”
– Some new goals include: (1) maintenance of peace,
stability and security in the region; (2) promotion of
greater political, security, economic and socio-cultural
cooperation; (3) preservation of SE Asia as an are free of
weapons of mass destruction (including nuclear weapons);
(4) creation of a just, democratic and harmonious
environment in the region
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ASEAN Basics (part 3)
• ASEAN has a number of subsidiary or associated groups, including:
– ASEAN Regional Forum (ARF)
• Established in 1994, with 26 Asian and Pacific states (plus European Union): “to facilitate
dialogue on political and security matters in the region”
– ASEAN + 3 (APT)
• Includes ASEAN members plus China, Japan and South Korea; created in 1997 partly as
response to Asian economic crisis, and partly as a way to balance northeast Asian power in
the security dialogue process with ASEAN
– East Asia Summit (EAS)
• Created in 2005: includes ASEAN +3 members, plus Australia, New Zealand and India
(Japan and other countries wanted the non-East Asian powers included to balance against
China); also referred to as ASEAN + 6
– East Asian Community (EAC)
• Still in the early, conceptual state: vision is to create an EU-style association of Asian
nations.
– APEC (separate but parallel organization to ASEAN)
• APEC = Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation
• APEC “works to facilitate economic growth, cooperation, trade and investment in the AsiaPacific region.” (It has 21 member countries, including many non-East Asian countries,
including Peru, Chile, Mexico, United States, Russian Federation)
• ASEAN is one of three official observers in APEC
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How the Economic Crisis (97/98) significantly
changed China’s geopolitical position in Asia
• China refrained from
devaluing its currency (which
helped contain the crisis)
• China’s credentials as a
“responsible rising power”
were strengthened
Shenzhen Container Port
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• China was able to shape the
creation of the ASEAN + 3
(APT) framework
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ASEAN + 3 (China, Japan, S. Korea), known
as “APT”
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The APT was established in 1997
(during economic crisis); includes
ASEAN members + China, Japan, S.
Korea
Designed to foster cooperation in 20
areas, ranging from security issues, to
transnational crime, tourism, health,
environment, science and technology
http://www.aseansec.org/19105.htm
ASEAN and China have signed 5
documents in the political/security field
(including on subjects such as South
China Sea and nontraditional security)
China wants to create free trade zone
within APT framework, while Japan
wants to expand number of countries
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East Asian Summit (EAS)
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Designed to foster exchange of views
on regional political and economic
issues
First EAS was held on 14 December
2005
East Asian Summit could provide the
framework for future East Asian
Community
In addition to APT, EAS includes India,
Australia and New Zealand (believed
to have been included to ‘balance’
Chinese power); 2011: US and Russia
will join (or have been invited)
China’s view: multilateral institutions
in SE Asia can advance Beijing’s
foreign policy interests (not viewed
any longer as constraint to PRC power)
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Where is terrorism in Asia?*
(It may not be where you think)
Attacks
Dead
Wounded
Hostages
Victims
Iraq
3,183
4,123
14,100
113
18.336
Afghanistan
3,950
3,826
5,792
1,172
10,790
Pakistan
1,782
2,709
5,591
623
8,923
India
1,048
905
1,070
423
2,398
Thailand
519
356
878
6
1,240
Philippines
295
231
346
230
807
Nepal
44
14
100
0
114
Indonesia
19
12
29
0
41
Bangladesh
7
2
12
0
14
Sri Lanka
2
0
3
0
3
Malaysia
1
0
0
0
0
North Korea
1
0
0
0
0
*Data covers time period 1/1/10 to 12/31/10; data source: National Counterterrorism Center (NCTC) database:
https://wits.nctc.gov/FederalDiscoverWITS/index.do?N=0
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Thailand’s Insurgency in the South
• Limited mainly to 3
provinces: Yala, Pattani
and Narathiwat (near
Thai-Malaysia border)
– Thailand annexed the 3
provinces in 1902,
although people are
Muslim and speak Malay
dialect
• More than 4,300 people
have died (since 2004)
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Insurgency in Southern Philippines
Key groups:
– Moro Islamic Liberation
Front (MILF)
– Moro National
Liberation Front (MNLF)
– Abu Sayyaf
– New People’s Army
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MILF members
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Violence in Xinjiang (China)
(burned bus in 5 July 2009 riots)
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Maoist Insurgency in India
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China is Emerging as the Most Significant Player
in Global Energy Markets
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Source: International Energy Outlook 2010, Dept of
Energy, Energy Information Agency
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China’s SLOC Dilemma
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“马六甲海峡是中国海上石油生命线, 它与中国经济安全息息想关” – […the Malacca Strait
is China’s maritime oil lifeline, for China’s economic security it is akin to breathing itself.] –
XDJC, December 2004
“当前国内进口石油的95%要通过海运, 其中80%要经过马六甲海峡 ... 马六甲...易于封锁
.. 但中国海军却鞭长莫及, 一旦发生以外, 将给中国的能源安全造成极大危害...” -[Currently, 95% of China's oil imports are transported by sea; of this, 80% transit the Malacca
Strait. This strait is easy to blockade ... but [ this mission] is beyond the power of China's
Navy, so that if this occurs, then China's resource security will be gravely compromised.] –
JZWQ, June 2006
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