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The 7th Asia Economic Forum
“ The Asian Century in the Making:
Achievements, Challenges, and Future Trends”
Plenary SessionＶ: Sustaining Asia’s Economic Recovery
Phnom Penh, Cambodia, 30th July, 2011
Juro Nakagawa
About Juro Nakagawa:
・Special Adviser to Japan Promotion Center for
Advanced Technology(JPAT)
・President of Japan Business Intelligence Society
・Vice President, International Academy for Study of
Asian Community
・ Guest Professor, Nihon University Graduate School of
Global Business;
・Former Professor of Tokyo Keizai University,
Tokyo Japan
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1. Financial crisis in 2008 and the Global Economy
With regard to Sustaining Asia’s Economic Recovery,
I would like to review the issue from the macro stand point
on Asian Community and the proposal of necessity of
Asian joint study on recent Northeast and East Japan’s
Great Earthquake and Tsunami.
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Since the financial crisis which surfaced in Autumn, 2008 in
the USA, the great change in economic and financial structures in
the world has been accelerated. Under such circumstances the
regional economic integration in Asia has been accelerated. At the
same time the tensions on the territorial issues of the domain of
islands between Japan, China, Korea, Vietnam and the Philippines
are heightening and menacing the security of those countries.
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In the meantime, China has been growing as a big
power not only in the political fields but also in economic
one. In 2010, China surpassed Japan in GDP attaining
10.3% annual growth. However the consumer price
increase and real estate bubble in China have incessantly
widened the acute gap between the rich and the poor. The
expected change in the top Chinese administration in
March 2012 might affect the East Asia. The relations
among China, Japan and the USA will be a major issue in
2012.
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The global economy appeared to be stabilized after the
Lehman shock in 2008. However, the USA public financial
debt issue and that of the EU led by Greece and followed by
Portugal and Ireland bring serious concern to the global
economy. In the meantime, the recent Great East Japan
Earthquake, Tsunami and the Fukushima nuclear power plant
disaster have inflicted a great adverse effect on the Japanese
economy, especially on auto and electronic manufacturers due
to the sudden interruption of supply chains in the disaster area.
Thus the Japanese economy is suffering greatly.
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In China, the USA and Russia, there will be the Presidential
elections in 2012 and the substantial change in politics is
expected. Under such circumstances, the regional economic
integration in the ASEAN will be accelerated by 2015. At the
same time, among the ASEAN+3, and +6 the regional
integration will be discussed for realization. In the meantime,
the FTAAP by the APEC and the TPP led by the USA have been
discussed for realization.
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I hereby propose the following for constructing the Asian
Economic Community.
①
In Asia, we should make our very best efforts to
construct the AFTA (ASEAN Free Trade Area) and then
to organize the ASEAN+3(China, Korea and Japan) and
the ASEAN+6(including the addition of India, Australia
and New Zealand). After that, we may consider to form
the ASEAN+8 (adding The USA and Russia). For the
time being, Japan may start negotiations on FTA or EPA
with China and Korea.
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②
In forming the ASEAN+3 free trade area, we must
take into consideration issues such as the diversity of
the cultures, traditions, religions, and the region’s unique
historical backgrounds. Thus we may pursue a multilateral
approach for building the Asian Community not only for
economic integration but also for the social, cultural,
academic and ethical integrations including cooperation in
the disaster management in the region as follows.
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To vitalize and expedite cultural exchange in the region
To establish the Asian Union University to educate the youth in
the region for the Asian Community.
We are currently considering establishing such a
university jointly by Japan and China.
Cambodia University is welcome to join such a venture.
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To establish the Asian Community, we must put much weight on
ethics in pursuing the welfare and happiness of the
people of the region, based on Asian ethics, embodied in
such religions as Confucianism, Buddhism, Islam and
Christianity on top of economic prosperity. In Asia such
an ethical community should be established in the 21st
century as a model of community.
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2. Asia wide Free Trade Area
In order to form an Asia wide Free Trade Area in the future,
including the ASEAN+3 and +6, it is recommended to
develop a long term strategy that takes into consideration
strengthening and further deepening the economic and
trade relations with the Shanghai Cooperation
Organization (SCO) as it is becoming a potential and
effective energy and economic community in Central Asia
led by China and Russia. With such a strategy, the ASEAN
could benefit from rich natural resources of China, Russia
and the Central Asia.
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In the field of transportation and logistics, the ASEAN will
be able to obtain the competitive advantage in international
business and trade through the network in the Middle East,
Europe and Central Asian states via the rail ways of Siberia
and via oil and gas pipe lines.
The expanded East Asia Community in the future should
include the BRICs countries i.e. China, Russia and India
(Brazil is out of the region) and in Eurasia, Tajikistan,
Kyrgyztan, Kazakhstan and Uzbekistan. The expanded Asian
Community should be constructed on the base of the
ASEAN+3 or +6 as a nucleus.
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3. The Strategy of the ASEAN
In order to strengthen and deepen the economic relations
with the ASEAN and other Asian countries, the EU had
established the ASEM (Asia Europe Meeting ) with 27
countries of the EU, the ASEAN 7+3, and observer countries
such as Mongolia, India, Pakistan and Iran consists of 41
countries plus the EU and the ASEAN secretariats. Thus, the
EU is employing a long term strategy in expanding its
economic and trade relations with Asia and Eurasia.
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In the meantime, the USA is endeavoring to realize the
expansion of the NAFTA to South America under the name
of the FTAA (Free Trade Area of the Americas). At the
same time, she is working very hard to establish the TPP
(Trans Pacific Partnership) with APEC member countries,
such as Chile, Peru, New Zealand, Australia, Brunei,
Singapore, Vietnam and Malaysia as a nucleus of the
FTAAP ( Free Trade Area of the Asia Pacific).
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I do expect that ASEAN members, Indonesia and
Malaysia, which have close relations with Moslem
countries of Central Asia and the Middle East will take a
positive and important role in establishing an Asia wide
community. Furthermore, the best use of overseas Chinese
and Indian overseas residents’ networks in Asia is
imperative for the establishment of an Asia wide Free Trade
Area and the Asian Economic Community.
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For such purposes, it is highly recommended that we
make the SCO and the ASEAN join in a Pan Asia
economic cooperation strategy in Eurasia where one of
the largest markets is expected in the 21st century. This
will connect Europe, Africa, Middle East, Central Asia,
India, Russia, Mongolia and China, thus constituting the
most important area from the stand point of geopolitics.
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4. The FTA Spoke and Hub Strategy
It is recommended to have the FTA Hub and Spoke Strategy
in order to make the FTA and the Economic Community more
feasible and viable. The EU has expanded to the Mediterranean,
African countries and to the MERCOSUR in order to strengthen
its economic ties by the FTA. The EU is taking the Spoke
Strategy to the above-mentioned countries and further to the
ASEM countries. The USA likewise is taking a similar Spoke
FTA Strategy through the FTAA for South America, and the
TPP and the FTAAP for the Asia Pacific, Saudi Arabia in the
Arabian Gulf and India in South West Asia as well.
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Under such circumstances, Japan and the ASEAN
should make a Hub and Spoke FTA strategy based on the
AFTA, the ASEAN+3, +6 and with the SCO, which
makes the FTA more competitive in the FTA and Asian
Economic Community in the 21st global competition.
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5. Disaster Management and Environment Protection
We must cooperate with the ASEAN in the joint study for
the prevention of natural disasters such as earthquakes,
tsunamis and also on the nuclear power accident which we
recently experienced in Fukushima. For such natural disasters,
prevention efforts in the ASEAN together with Japan, China
and Korea should be made. The Kyoto University has taken the
lead in a joint study of natural disasters with international
research institutes through the Japan Initiative: for
the ”Formation of Asian Disaster Experience Knowledge Bank
Network” The Harvard University Reischauer Institute of
Japanese Studies has established Digital Archive of Japan’s
2011 Disasters.
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The Harvard University Reischauer Institute of Japanese
Studies has established Digital Archive of Japan’s 2011
Disasters.
In the 20th century and the first decade of 21st century, Asia
suffered so much from natural disasters such as earthquakes,
tsunamis, typhoons and floods, causing the loss of almost half a
million lives, especially in India, Pakistan, Bangladesh, Sri
Lanka. Examples are complemented, in 1923 the East Japan
earthquake with 230,000 casualties, in 1976, the Tangshan,
China earthquake with 240,000 casualties, In 2004 the Aceh
earthquake and Tsunami, Indonesia with 50,000 casualties, in
2008, the Sichuan earthquake, China with 90,000 casualties, in
2011, the Northeast and East Japan earthquake and tsunami with
20,000 casualties (estimated).
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Further more the Fukushima Nuclear power plant
accident has caused a great deal of damage and sufferings in
the expanding areas. It is much hoped to expedite and
accelerate a joint study on how to prevent such natural
disasters among Asian nations especially among the
ASEAN+3, +6 and also +8.
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6. Toward the new Paradigm for the sustainable Society in Asia
Fukushima Nuclear Power Plant accident shows the breakdown
of Japan Model~ “Production Game”. Japan has concentrated on
Mass Production, Mass Consumption and Mass Scrapping,
following the American way of life. On this turning point of the
history, we must reorganize our society in order to protect the
environment, based upon Asian own cultures and Asian ways of life,
departing from mass production and excessive consumption to
realize a sustainable society.
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We must change the public economic policy to realize a
sustainable and environmentally friendly society in harmony
with nature, instead of harming agriculture and the environment
in Asia.
Today we are in an age of one –day trip economic area among
Japan, Korea, China Taiwan, India and the ASEAN.
The ASEAN countries must cooperate to attain the sustainable
Asian Society, preparing for the coming Era of Pax-Asiana in
the 21st century.
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Major reference;
① “The USA TPP strategy and East Asian Community”，
Makoto Taniguchi, July11, 2011, Kyoto University
② “Integrated Disaster Protection Strategy for Global
Society and Partnership in East Asian Region”,
Norio Okada, July 11, 2011, Kyoto University
③ “Mega Economic Area~Asia and Japan”, Mizuho
Research Institute、Sept,2010
④ “Proposals on Disaster Recovery Policy for Great East
Japan Earthquake”、Volunteers from faculty members
(GRIPS) June, 2011
⑤ “ASEAN” Weekly Toyo Keizai, July 16th , 2011
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⑥ “Promoting Asia wide Free Trade Area and The ASEAN”,
Juro Nakagawa, December 13th ,2010, Universitas Darma
Persada Jakarta, Indonesia
⑦ “The perspective of Cooperation in Central Asia and
East Asia”, Japan Trade Center, 2008
⑧ “Global Economic Strategy”,~Cooperation,
Co-creation and Global Contribution”
Ministry of Economy,Trade and Industry of Japan,
Gyosei, May 2006
⑨ “BRICs 3 billion market”, Harvard Business Review,
May 2006
⑩ “The Shanghai Cooperation Organization”, SCO Bulletin,
Beijing, 2006
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