Transcript P8.4.
Main results of the Break-out session on Tendency Surveys Gian Paolo Oneto Istat The main issue emerging from the discussion concerns the need of Guidelines in the practice and development of tendency surveys: the resulting practical proposal is about an Handbook Practical utility of the Handbook The Handbook on Tendency Surveys is intended for those that carry out tendency surveys and those who use composite tendency indicators. Drawing on a wide range of experience and expertise, the handbook should outlines harmonization practices for: questionnaire design, survey questions, survey execution (sample design, frame, reference list) data processing (weighting, treatment of non responses..) the use of results (disseminaton, seasonal adjsustement, calculation of sentiment indicators). More on the contents of the Handbook.. The handbook is intended to assist those that carry out surveys by helping to create an harmonized list of questions by economic activity. The handbook can be used as a guide through the process of setting up sample survey operations and data processing. The handbook will provide guidance for dissemination of survey results. but… The handbook will guide users on the applicability of tendency surveys with respect to macroeconomic situations. It is intended to serve the needs of analytical users by making them aware of the statistical methods and techniques employed in tendency surveys and composite tendency indicators. Reasons to go further with respect to the guidelines currently provided by EC and by Oecd A new handbook should go further by taking into consideration additional economic sectors and the needs of developing countries. The new handbook can be relevant as an internationally approved set of guidelines applicable to all countries and multiple economic activities. The Handbook will be useful for national statisticians and organizations that carry out and analyze tendency surveys. A tentative table of contents has been tabled TABLE OF CONTENTS 1. INTRODUCTION 2. SAMPLE DESIGN (Survey frame, Sampling, Contacts with respondents, Periodicity and timeliness) 3.1. QUESTIONNAIRE DESIGN 3.2. STANDARD “HARMONISED” QUESTIONNAIRES (by survey) 4. DATA PROCESSING, QUALITY AND ANALYSIS ( Measurement and processing errors, Aggregation and weighting; Conversion of multiple-choice questions into quantitative time series, seasonal adjustment) (continue) TABLE OF CONTENTS (2) 5. USE OF TENDENCY SURVEY RESULTS a. Nowcasting and forecasting macroeconomic aggregates; b. Confidence and sentiment indicators: how to synthesize the information contained in tendency surveys; c. Applications of tendency surveys in business cycle analysis and turning points dating and detection 6. DATA DISSEMINATION AND PUBLICATION (Metadata, Publication procedures) ANNEX (online): Country practices; sample questionnaires Open questions... Is there an operational consensus about the scope of the new Handbook, based on the standard approach of Official Statistics Manuals? Are there controversial questions in the “second tier” of the Handbook (the one focused on the construction and utilisation of confidence indicators) ? What can be the organizational arrangement best suited to launch this project (an Expert Group)? What are the International organizations ready to take the lead?