Transcript P7.3.9.

Tendency Surveys terminology
Rosa Ruggeri Cannata – Eurostat
Third International Seminar on Early Warning and
Business Cycle Indicators
17 – 19 November 2010, Moscow
Tendency Surveys
 qualitative information from individuals and company
managers about the financial and economic situation of their
household or their business in the following sectors:
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Industry
construction
retail trade
services
consumers
special surveys: investment
 Possible extensions
– agriculture
– energy
Tendency Surveys terminology
A way to synthesise the information at sector
level: Confidence Indicators
 Aggregating answers by balances
 Selection of component series
– standard set of components for individual countries or
– aggregates or more representative series for individual countries
 Weighting of component series
– different weights
– equal weights for individual components or aggregates
– Information on the economic development by sector
 Industrial confidence indicator: arithmetic average of balances
to questions on:
– Order books
– Stock of finished products
– Expectation on production
Tendency Surveys terminology
A way to synthesise the cross-sectoral
information: Sentiment Indicators
 Integration of information coming from different sectors
 comparability of series: standardisation
 ESI: five surveyed sectors are aggregated to track GDP
growth at Member State, EU and euro area level
 Obtained by standardised individual components of
confidence indicators with different weights: (Industry
40%, Services 30%, Consumers 20%, Construction 5%
Retail trade 5%)
Tendency Surveys terminology
Climate indicators
 Sectoral or general level
 Based on qualitative information
 Representing the underlying cyclical situation at a
particular moment
 Based on more sophisticated methods
 Examples:
– European Commission BCI for euro area
– IFO Business Climate for economic development in
Germany
– French business climate
Tendency Surveys terminology
A sector climate indicator: The BCI for the euro
area
 European Commission Business Climate Indicator for
the manufacturing sector in the euro area
 Five balances of opinion from the industry survey:
production trends in recent months, order books, export
order books, stocks and production expectations
 factor model-based using the results of the industry
survey
 designed to assess cyclical developments in the euro
area
Tendency Surveys terminology
Ifo World Economic Climate
 The Ifo World Economic Survey (WES) assesses worldwide
economic trends by polling transnational as well as national
organizations worldwide about current economic developments in the
respective country
 WES is designed to give an accurate picture of the economic
situation and forecasts for important industrial, emerging and
developing economies on a quarterly basis
 individual replies are combined for each country without weighting
 Replies are “graded”
 Within each country group or region, the country results are weighted
according to the share of the specific country’s exports and imports in
total world trade
 Euro area Economic Climate: The Ifo World Economic Climate for the
16 member countries of the euro area is the arithmetic mean of the
assessments of the general economic situation and the expectations
for the economic situation in the coming six months
Tendency Surveys terminology