World Meteorological Organization Working together in weather, climate and water WMO 2nd Conference of the OECD International Network on the Financial Management of Large-scale.
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World Meteorological Organization Working together in weather, climate and water WMO 2nd Conference of the OECD International Network on the Financial Management of Large-scale Catastrophes Session 2: Natural hazard awareness and disaster risk reduction education The role of the WMO in natural hazard awareness and disaster risk reduction education; Maryam Golnaraghi, Ph.D. Chief of WMO Disaster Risk Reduction Programme September 24, 2009, Bangkok, Thailand www.wmo.int Potential role of Role of National Meteorological and Hydrological Services within more comprehensive National Disaster Risk Management Programmes Alignment of national to local policies, legislation, planning, resources multi-sectoral organizational coordination and collaboration Risk Identification Risk Reduction Risk Transfer Hazard databases Hazard statistics 1 Climate forecasting and trend analysis Exposed assets & vulnerability Risk analysis tools PREPAREDNESS: early warning systems emergency planning CAT insurance & bonds 2 MITIGATION AND PREVENTION: Medium to long term sectoral planning (e.g. zoning, infrastructure, agriculture) 3 Weather-indexed insurance and derivatives Other emerging products Information and Knowledge Sharing Education and training Systematically linking know-how to capacity development projects Monitoring and Evaluation of national practices National and Regional Projects •Implementation of projects, Training, Institutional Capacities Building, sharing good practices and lessons learnt linked to projects Development of Guidelines based on Lessons Learnt Identification and Documentation of Good Practices and learning Lessons Role of National Meteorological and Hydrological Services in Risk Assessment Alignment of national to local policies, legislation, planning, resources multi-sectoral organizational coordination and collaboration Risk Identification Risk Reduction Risk Transfer Hazard databases Hazard statistics Climate forecasting and trend analysis Exposed assets & vulnerability Risk analysis tools PREPAREDNESS: early warning systems emergency planning MITIGATION AND PREVENTION: Medium to long term sectoral planning (e.g. zoning, infrastructure, agriculture) CAT insurance & bonds Weather-indexed insurance and derivatives Other emerging products Information and Knowledge Sharing Education and training Systematic documentation of good practices and guidelines initiated Standardization of Hazard Data, metadata and analysis tools – Guidelines for floods, droughts, tropical cyclones and storm surges and other meteorological hazards underway Initiatives underway for standardization of hazard information for Floods, Droughts, Meteorological Hazards 1. Flood hazard data and mapping guidelines (underway) 2. Drought assessment and mapping (underway) 3. Storm Surge hazard data and mapping (underway) 4. Other meteorological hazards data and mapping guidelines (initiated (March 2009) • Severe Weather, Heat waves, Tropical Cyclones 5. Tools to assess evolution of hazard trends in the future …(next step) FLOOD First Implementation of Flood and Drought Hazard Mapping underway in South Eastern Europe (with UNDP, World Bank, ISDR)) Partnership Development Projects with other UN Agencies Role of National Meteorological and Hydrological Services in Risk Reduction Alignment of national to local policies, legislation, planning, resources multi-sectoral organizational coordination and collaboration Risk Identification Risk Reduction Risk Transfer Hazard databases Hazard statistics Climate forecasting and trend analysis Exposed assets & vulnerability Risk analysis tools PREPAREDNESS: early warning systems emergency planning MITIGATION AND PREVENTION: Medium to long term sectoral planning (e.g. zoning, infrastructure, agriculture) CAT insurance & bonds Weather-indexed insurance and derivatives Other emerging products Information and Knowledge Sharing Education and training What is an Effective EWS? 4 1 Community Preparedness National to local governments supported by DRR plans, legislation and coordination mechanisms 5 2 COORDINATION AMONG NATIONAL SERVICES 3 3 Meteorological 3 warnings Hydrological feedback Geological Marine Health (etc.) 5 5 feedback Capacity development in Multi-Hazard Early Warning Systems with Focus on Institutional Coordination, Cooperation and NMHSs Guidelines (Section 3) Synthesis of Good Practices in Early Warning Systems and Role of NMHS in Multi-hazard EWS (Section 4) Bangladesh Cyclone Preparedness Programme Cuba Tropical Cyclone Early Warning System French “Vigilance System” Shanghai MultiHazard Emergency Preparedness Programme (Annex I) (Annex II) (Annex III) (Annex IV) Synthesis & guidelines developed from four “good practices” first document of a series of guidelines that the WMO is developing in the field of Early Warning Systems. Systematic documentation of good practices in Multi-Hazard Early Warning Systems • Four good practices in Multi-Hazard EWS Documented Cuba, France, China/Shanghai, Bangladesh • Guidelines on “Capacity Development in MultiHazard EWS with focus on Institutional Coordination and NMHS,” nearly finalized • Training package being published (Springer Verlag 2010) Training workshops on Multi-Hazard Early Warning Systems (2009-2010) Focus: Institutional cooperation and coordination Targeting: Directors of Disaster Risk Management and National Metrological and Hydrological Services Programme: • Training on good practices in EWS • Training in guidelines on « Capacity development in MultiHazard Early Warning Systems with Focus on Institutional Coordination, Cooperation” • Interactive discussions to assess participating countries capacities, gaps and needs • Opportunities for regional cooperation • Outcomes are linked to development projects Training workshops on Multi-Hazard Early Warning Systems (2009-2010) South East Europe Central America and the Carribeans South East Asia Southern and Eastern Africa Role of National Meteorological and Hydrological Services for Financial Risk Transfer Markets Alignment of national to local policies, legislation, planning, resources multi-sectoral organizational coordination and collaboration Risk Identification Risk Reduction Risk Transfer Hazard databases Hazard statistics Climate forecasting and trend analysis Exposed assets & vulnerability Risk analysis tools PREPAREDNESS: early warning systems emergency planning MITIGATION AND PREVENTION: Medium to long term sectoral planning (e.g. zoning, infrastructure, agriculture) CAT insurance & bonds Weather-indexed insurance and derivatives Other emerging products Information and Knowledge Sharing Education and training Requirements for Meteorological and Hydrological information to support Financial Risk Transfer Dec 2007, WMO Headquarters Participants: (8 re-insurers, 13 Met Services, WFP, World Bank, UNDP, WRMA) USER Perspectives: • • Information (data and forecasts): – Availability and accessibility of historical and real-time data – Data quality assurance, filling data gaps, Other data value-added services (??) – Reliability, authoritative and timeliness of data (for contract design and settlement) – Medium-term Weather and Seasonal Forecasts (portfolio management and forward looking risk analysis) – Long term trend analysis (long-term market development strategy) Technical support and Service delivery Meteorological Services Perspectives: • Need for awareness raising among Met services • Resources, ability and priorities to deliver • “Commercial” ,“Security” and “Turf” Issues associated with data accessibility http://www.wmo.int/pages/prog/dpm/cat-insurance-wrm-markets-2007/index_en.html Systematic documentation of good practices and guidelines initiated Training Materials to support financial risk transfer markets WMO/World Bank/WFP will be developing joint report on lesson’s learnt from pilots Information Service delivery: Experiences of National Meteorological Services for provision of data and information to this market will be documented (2009-2010) Progress with Catastrophe (CAT) Insurance / Bond and Weather Risk Management Markets Catastrophe Insurance and Bond Markets European Agricultural Risk Weather Risk Management Markets (ART) Hydro Electric Power Risk Contracts Wind Power Risk Contracts Southeastern Europe Disaster Risk management Project CAT Bond Markets post Hurricane Andrew UK Flood CAT Bond & Southeastern and Central European Risk Insurance Facility Indian Agricultural Risk Heating Degree Day Contracts Caribbean Catastrophe Risk Insurance Facility Drought Risk Management in Ethiopia Malawi Drought Risk Management Pacific Risk Insurance Facility Developing Tools and Training on Climate Forecasting and Analysis tools Statistical analysis of historical data is only first estimate . Needs for forward looking information to augment statistical hazard analysis and mapping Impact of climate on sectors are linked to…. • Changing patterns of hydro-meteorological extremes – Frequency, severity and location of droughts, floods, tropical cyclones, heat waves, etc • Accumulation of risk linked to deviations of meteorological and hydrological conditions from normal – Variations and changes in the onset of seasons, changes in the rainfall amounts and patters, etc. Emerging Technologies (Weather and Climate Time Scales) Short- to Medium-Range Weather 0-14 days Seasonal Forecasts Short-Term Climate months to seasons Long-Term Climate decades to century Forward looking risk analysis for improved planning and risk managment Utilization in the financial risk transfer markets Droughts Climate variability and change and their impacts are not uniform geographically Trends in heavy rainfall Trends in Frost and Heat Waves Need for production of local climate information… Highly Resource Intensive! (IPCC, 2007) IPCC 4th Assessment Report, 2007 Global/Regional/National Cooperation Framework For Provisions of Climate Services Four Major Thrusts: • Understanding of information needs of at-risk sectors – Through partnerships (with UN, international and regional agencies) • Designation and coordination of network of global and regional climate centers – to faciliate provision of forecasting and analysis tools and information to national centers • Strengthen observation networks • More targeted climate research Global/Regional Network of WMO Designated Climate Centers ECMWF Moscow Exeter Montreal Beijing Toulouse Seoul Tokyo Washington Lead Centre for LRFMME Gobal Producing Centres of Long Range Forecasts (GPCs) Pretoria Melbourne Regional Climate Centres (RCCs) RCC Network Nodes (Pilot) Lead Centre for SVSLRF SVSLRF: Standardized Verification System for Long Range Forecasts LRFMME: Long Range Forecast Multi-Model Ensemble CLW/CLPA/WCAS Climate Risk management Project in Africa WMO/World Bank Project in Africa Funded by GFDRR • Countries: Burundi, Djibouti, Eritrea, Ethiopia, Kenya, Rwanda, Sudan, Somalia, Tanzania, and Uganda • Objectives: Development of climate information based on observations and latest climate tools and forecasting technologies • Sectors: Agriculture and water resource management • Timeline of data: Different climate scales up to 20 years: • Partners – National: NMHS, sectors representatives – International/Regional: World Bank, – Technical: GlobalClimate Centers (US, UK, ECMWF, Pretoria) and Regional centers (IGAD) • Status: Project was launch on June 21 • World Bank project manager: Amal Talbi-Jordan Thank You For more information please contact: Maryam Golnaraghi, Ph.D. Chief of Disaster Risk Reduction Programme World Meteorological Organization Tel. 41.22.730.8006 Fax. 41.22.730.8023 Email. [email protected] http://www.wmo.int/disasters