Transcript WCRP matters and implications for WGNE WGNE 29th session 10-13 March 2014 Melbourne, Australia C.

WCRP matters and implications
for WGNE
WGNE 29th session
10-13 March 2014
Melbourne, Australia
C. Jakob on behalf of M. Rixen, WCRP JPS, Geneva
Mission & Objectives
World Climate Research Programme supports
climate-related decision making and adaptation
planning by coordinating research required to improve
(1) climate predictions and
(2) understanding of human influence on climate
“for use in an increasing range of practical
applications of direct relevance, benefit and value
to society”
(WCRP Strategic Framework 2005-2015).
Now includes MJO TF
GC Clouds: challenges
GC Clouds: opportunities
GC Clouds: organization
S. Bony & B. Stevens
GC Clouds: model development
GLOBAL FRAMEWORK
FOR CLIMATE SERVICES
Goal:
Improved management of climate
variability and change and adaptation to
climate change through use of climate
information in policy and practice from
global to national scale
Prediction
Initial priority for first 4 years:
• Agriculture and food security
• Disaster risk reduction
• Water resources
• Health
www.gfcs-climate.org
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Capacities in climate services
Basic
Basic
Countries/Territories
##ofofCountries/Territories
70
Essential
Essential
60
50
Full
Full
40
30
20
10
Less
than
Less than
basic
Basic
• More than 70 countries have only
basic or less than basic capacities
to provide climate services
• ≈ 60 countries can provide full
Advanced
Advanced
or advanced climate services
0
Infrastructural
capacityCategory
category
Infrastrucal Capacity
Pilot projects in Burkina Faso, Chad,
Mali, Niger, Sudan and South Sudan.
Under preparation:
Botswana, Nepal and Spain
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Research, Modelling and Prediction
Main gaps to be addressed
• Weak communication between communities of scientists and practitioners
and the need to go the “last mile” between science deliverables and
service-oriented ready-to-use climate information products @ global,
regional, & local scale
• Lack of seamless suite of climate products for contiguous time
scales from weather to seasonal, interannual, decadal predictions
and centenial climate projections (e.g. WGNE+S2S to fill gap)
• Still unknown predictability & limited prediction skill for a range of
key time-space scales and some important phenomena (PS e.g.
systematic error affecting climate predictions)
• Lack of comprehensive approaches and experience in dealing with
uncertainty (e.g. for extremes)
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ICSU’s Future Earth
conceptual framework
Proposed Research Strategy:
At the simplest level, Future Earth must answer
fundamental questions about how and why the
global environment is changing, what are likely
future changes, what the implications are for
humans and other species, and what choices can be
made to reduce harmful risks and vulnerabilities,
enhance resilience, and create prosperous futures.
Call for proposal: Fast Track Initiatives and Cluster Activities
Deadline 4 April 2014 – need some GEC core project umbrella
CMIP new structure
Earth System Grid Federation
JSC34-WMAC2: Earth System Grid Federation
to become WCRP main mechanism for
exchanging data (climate
simulations+observations+reanalyses) in the
next decade, including core projects
- on-going progress to publish CORDEX and
WGSIP-CHFP simulations
WGCM: a new Infrastructure Panel to maintain
standards and metadata across MIPS
Intercomparison Models-Observations
Coordinated with CMIP5 are parallel efforts to collect and
make available observationally-based products
Obs4MIPs
A pilot effort to improve the connection between data experts and scientists involved in
climate model evaluation. Aligned with CMIP5, with encouragement from the WGCM,
WGNE, WDAC.
NASA and the U.S. DOE have initiated the project with significant contributions of
appropriate NASA products. This is expanding to other products from other agencies.
Communities to contribute data to Obs4MIPs such as cryosphere, biogeochemistry, etc.
WDAC
• WDAC3, Galway, Ireland, May 2014: special session on
(sea and land) fluxes: importance for ESM, coupling, …
• ECV inventory being developed jointly by CEOS, CGMS
and WMO (WCRP+ GCOS)
• In prep: doc on best practices for data set assessments
(+maturity index) and publications (DOI)
• obs4MIPs panel to identify suitable data sets for inclusion
in ESGF/obs4MIPS and develop guidelines
– obs4MIPs-CMIP workshop: 29 Apr – 1 May, NASA HQ:
atmosphere, ocean, land, cryosphere, carbon, chemistry, radiation,
simulators, etc
• ana4MIPs parallel effort to bring reanalyses into ESGF
Very relevant, even if you think you are a “climate scientist”!
Miscellaneous
• Synergies with other groups (WGSIP, S2S, etc): maximize research
impact, avoid duplications
• Potential stronger synergies between WGNE/WGCM Climate Model
Metrics Panel (http://www-metrics-panel.llnl.gov/wiki) and
WWRP/WGNE Joint Working Group on Forecast Verification
Research (JWGFVR) – towards seamless metrics and verification
• Recommendation from the Systematic Error Workshop: establish a
Transpose-CMIP effort: systematic biases in coupled climate models /
ESM in weather-forecast/hindcast mode
– Similar to Transpose-AMIP
– Potential for Transpose AMIP/CMIP comparison
– WGNE engagement?
Thank you for your attention!