Transcript WGNE activities and plans Andy Brown and Christian Jakob WGNE co-chairs © Crown copyright Met Office.

WGNE activities and plans
Andy Brown and Christian Jakob
WGNE co-chairs
© Crown copyright Met Office
What is WGNE?
The Working Group on Numerical Experimentation (WGNE),
jointly established by the WCRP and the WMO Commission for
Atmospheric Sciences (CAS), has the responsibility of fostering
the development of atmospheric circulation models for use in
weather prediction and climate studies on all time scales and
diagnosing and resolving shortcomings.
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Terms of reference
1.
Advise the JSC and CAS on progress in atmospheric modelling.
2.
Review the development of atmospheric models for use in weather prediction and
climate studies on all scales, including the diagnosis of shortcomings.
3.
Propose numerical experiments aiming to refine numerical techniques and the formulation
of atmospheric physics processes, boundary layer processes and land surface processes in
models.
4.
Design and promote coordinated experiments for:
•
validating model results against observed atmospheric properties and variations;
•
exploring the intrinsic and forced variability and predictability of the general circulation of
the atmosphere on short to extended ranges;
•
assessing the intrinsic and forced variability of the atmosphere on climate timescales.
5.
Promote the development of data assimilation methods for application to numerical
weather and climate predictions, and for the estimation of derived climatological quantities.
6.
Promote the development of new methods for numerical weather prediction and climate
simulation.
7.
Maintain scientific liaison with other WCRP and CAS groups as appropriate.
8.
Promote the timely exchange of information, data and new knowledge on atmospheric
modelling through publications, workshops and meetings.
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In short……
• Development of atmospheric models – all
space and time scales
• Advice, liaison
• Co-ordinated experiments
• Workshops, publications, meetings
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WGNE activities in light of a model development framework
Application
Model
NWP; seasonal;
climate
Diagnostics to
identify causes of
model error
Develop model
improvements
Perform process
studies (model +
observations)
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Overall
assessment and
verification
Definition and
design of
suitable process
studies
Jakob, BAMS, in press
Current activities
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Enhancing routine forecast verification

Many activities largely carried out in strong collaboration with the
Joint WWRP/WGNE Working Group on Forecast Verification
Research

A very good example of the long-term successful collaboration
between WWRP and WGNE.

WGNE has been instrumental in the establishment of a Climate
Model Metrics Panel (members from across WMO activities)
24-h FC-Error of location of
rainfall systems in SE Australia
Courtesy BOM
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Transpose AMIP II (WGNE/WGCM)
Seamless research in action

Exercise climate models in NWP
mode

Enables diagnosis of
parametrization behaviour under
realistic flow conditions.

Project entering Phase 2 ->
Focus on YOTC year(s) -> 64
coordinated forecasts

2 sets of analyses

Data will be available through
PCMDI

Rainfall forecasts at ARM SGP
6 centres committed
http://hadobs.metoffice.com/tamip/news.html
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Transpose AMIP II – diagnostic subprojects
•
MJO dynamics in the Transpose-AMIP II hindcasts: (PI: Mitch Moncrieff)
•
Water budget analysis (PI: Gill Martin)
•
Comparison of methodologies (initial tendency using own analysis vs 5-day
forecast using alien analysis) (PI: Mark Rodwell)
•
Cloud regimes (PI: Keith Williams)
•
Relationship between short and long timescale model errors (PI:TBD)
•
Regional investigation into model tendencies (PI: TBD)
•
Comparison of current climate and NWP models (PI:TBD)
•
2009 SE Asian monsoon analysis (PI: TBD)
•
……..
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Cloudy infrared radiances:
Intercomparison exercise
Sponsored by ISSWG and WGNE
Coordinators: Lydie Lavanant, Florence Rabier
Contributors: Arlindo Arriaga, Thomas August, Sylvain Cros, Nadia Fourrié, Antonia
Gambacorta, Sylvain Heilliette, Fiona Hilton, Min-Jeong Kim, Tony McNally, Hidenori
Nishihata, Ed Pavelin, Ben Ruston, Claudia Stubenrauch
Comparison of IASI Cloud Products for
cloudy radiance assimilation
Rationale:
IASI data for temperature and humidity sounding are now assimilated in
clear conditions at many operational meteorological centres.
However, a large amount of situations, more than 80% on the whole
globe, are covered by clouds.
The first step is to detect and characterize the clouds in the footprint of
the sounder.
Experimental settings:
All methods are applied to a 12-h global acquisition on 18 Nov. 2009.
11
First results over the globe
The grey color corresponds
to clear situations or
undetermined cloud
heights.
The main meteorological
structures have been
retrieved by all the
schemes but the cloud
heights can be very
different.
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WGNE-THORPEX PDP effort on model diagnostics

WGNE and THORPEX Predictability and Dynamical Processes
(PDP) WG have agreed to jointly strengthen research activities in
forecast error diagnostics in support of model development.

Cross-representation at each others meetings (A Brown / T Jung)

Joint expert meeting on “Diagnosis of Forecast Errors” held in
Zurich, July 2010

State of the art models still suffer from substantial errors

Diagnostic work (+dynamical expertize) has potential to inform
developers at process level to guide development

Future activities on application of diagnostic techniques to
monsoon problems and cyclonic systems
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Other activities on model development and
enhancement

Parametrization -> with GMPP (GCSS, GLASS, GABLS)

High-resolution (km-scale) NWP

Cross-representation at WWRP Mesoscale Working Group Meetings

Possible coordinated project on effects of resolution near convectionresolving scales
Atmospheric composition

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WGNE-25 had a series of invited talks
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Members will provide input on current status of operational AC prediction
Coupled atmosphere-ocean NWP


Increased collaboration with GODAE OceanView (workshop / project?)

SURFA project to compare NWP near surface fields and fluxes to buoy
data
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ECMWF and DWD cf WHOI flux buoy at 20S 85W
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Physics / model development workshop
WGNE in collaboration with all WCRP and WWRP partners is
planning to hold a workshop on “Physics in Global and Earth
System Models”.
Aim:
Define 4-5 key areas for model development in the next 5 years (e.g.
build on results of WGNE/WCRP initiated survey)
Charge the workshop to draw up a plan of attack for each of the
areas.
Likely time-frame: September 2011
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Summary and Challenges

WGNE hosts a wide range of activities in support of model evaluation
and development.

Enhanced collaboration with WWRP/THORPEX.

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Meso-scale group, THORPEX PDP and DAOS, YOTC, JWGV, ...

Enhanced links to WCRP (SPARC, WGCM, WGSIP)

Model and DA development remains at the heart of better forecasts at
all ranges and needs to remain a high priority!

New activities need to be carefully integrated into the group’s
functions without the loss of focus on atmospheric model and DA
development, which defined the group’s success over the last 25
years!

Possible impact of WCRP restructuring?
Questions?
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