Transcript WGNE activities and plans Andy Brown and Christian Jakob WGNE co-chairs © Crown copyright Met Office.

WGNE activities and plans
Andy Brown and Christian Jakob
WGNE co-chairs
© Crown copyright Met Office
Role of WGNE
•
Working Group on Numerical Experimentation
•
Jointly established by the WCRP and the WMO Commission
for Atmospheric Sciences (CAS)
•
Responsibility of fostering the development of atmospheric
circulation models for use in weather prediction and climate
studies on all time scales and diagnosing and resolving
shortcomings.
• A distillation of the Terms of Reference…..
• Advice, liaison
• Co-ordinated experiments
• Workshops, publications, meetings
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Liaison
© Crown copyright Met Office
•
WWRP: YOTC/MJO, grey-zone project with Mesoscale
WG, Joint Working Group on Verification
•
THORPEX: PDP workshops, DAOS
•
WGCM : Transpose-AMIP, metrics, model errors
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GEWEX (GCSS, GABLS, GLASS): MJO, grey-zone
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SPARC and WGSIP: stratospheric modelling? model
errors?
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Operational centre reports and progress reviews
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Co-ordinated experiments and
projects
© Crown copyright Met Office
• Transpose-AMIP
• SURFA
GOOD PROGRESS
DATA FROM MORE CENTRES
• Grey-zone
NEW
• Cloudy-radiance
DONE
• High resolution AMIP
?
• Verification
• NWP performance (eg TCs, precipitation)
ONGOING
• Polar (CBS-style; ConcordIASI intercomparsion)
• Climate metrics
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GOOD PROGRESS
NEW
Transpose-AMIP:
testing climate models in NWP mode
• Core experiment is to run 64 hindcasts, each 5 days long, initialised
from ECMWF YOTC analysis.
• Optional experiment to repeat the same set of hindcasts with NASA
MERRA re-analysis or own analysis.
• The hindcasts spread through the annual and diurnal cycles and
chosen to tie in with YOTC and coincide with some of the IOPs in:
• VOCALS (SE Pacific stratocumulus)
• AMY (Asian monsoon)
• T-PARC (mid-latitude Pacific)
• 9 centres committed to submit data
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Proposed diagnostic subprojects
• MJO dynamics in the Transpose-AMIP II hindcasts: (PI: Mitch Moncrieff)
• Water budget analysis (PI: Gill Martin)
• Comparison of methodologies (initial tendency using own analysis vs 5-day forecast
using alien analysis) (PI: Mark Rodwell)
• Cloud regimes (PI: Keith Williams)
• Intense extra-tropical windstorms (PI: Peter Knippertz)
• Relationship between short and long timescale model errors (PI: Shaocheng Xie)
• Regional investigation into model tendencies (PI: TBD)
• VOCALS analysis (PI: TBD)
• 2009 SE Asian monsoon analysis (PI: TBD)
• More desirable – valuable database to be used alongside
TIGGE etc. PDP interest?
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www.transpose-amip.info
SURFA
• Real-time provision of ECMWF
and DWD data for several years
• Within last year, JMA, MeteoFrance data added for 2008 and
2009
• Ge Peng et al, A comparison of
various equatorial Pacific surface
wind products. For submission to
GRL.
© Crown copyright Met Office
Planned comparison of models with buoy
and cruise flux data (Chris Fairall)
• STRATUS/DART2 buoys, Chilean coast (+
cruise data)
• NTAS
(+cruises planned)
N. Atlantic Trade wind
• WHOTS
(+cruises planned)
Hawaii
• KEO
Kuroshio Extension
• PAPA
NW Pacific
© Crown copyright Met Office
Cloudy infrared radiances:
Intercomparison exercise
Sponsored by ISSWG and WGNE
Coordinators: Lydie Lavanant, Florence Rabier
Contributors: Arlindo Arriaga, Thomas August, Sylvain Cros, Nadia Fourrié, Antonia
Gambacorta, Sylvain Heilliette, Fiona Hilton, Min-Jeong Kim, Tony McNally, Hidenori
Nishihata, Ed Pavelin, Ben Ruston, Claudia Stubenrauch
Comparison of IASI Cloud Products for
cloudy radiance assimilation
Rationale:
IASI data for temperature and humidity sounding are now assimilated in
clear conditions at many operational meteorological centres.
However, a large amount of situations, more than 80% on the whole
globe, are covered by clouds.
The first step is to detect and characterize the clouds in the footprint of
the sounder.
Experimental settings:
All methods are applied to a 12-h global acquisition on 18 Nov. 2009.
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First results over the globe
The grey color corresponds
to clear situations or
undetermined cloud
heights.
The main meteorological
structures have been
retrieved by all the
schemes but the cloud
heights can be very
different.
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Grey zone project
© Crown copyright Met Office
How to parametrize physical processes in
the “grey-zone” (1-10km)?
• Of interest to
• Operational mesoscale NWP
• Many already running at resolutions of a few km but
room for more systematic testing to complement existing
assessments of parametrization choices?
• Future global models
• What to do as global models enter this range?
• Regional climate models
© Crown copyright Met Office
Example of testing of existing 4km convection closure
No convection scheme
Too high
With convection scheme
CAPE dependent t
Closer to
Too low
radar
10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80
mm/hour
10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80
mm/hour
10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80
mm/hour
12/10/00 flood event
Peak rainfall rates within 60x60km squares over 12 hours 4km
gridlength forecasts
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Convection closure
• 4km CAPE limited CAPE closure
• 1.5km No convection scheme
• Both models add significant value to coarser models
(surface forcing; shower advection)
• Convection decisions based on case-studies /
verification scores
• Role for idealized work to supplement case study /
verification work (metrics need care)
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Proposed case: cold-air outbreak
• Designed to be relevant to and to engage as broad a range of
communities as possible
• Mesoscale modellers
• Global modellers
• LES/CRM/parametrization development community (GCSS)
• Case to be run across whole range of resolutions (from
convection resolved to fully parametrized)
• Back diagnose fluxes at different resolutions from high resolution
‘truth’
• Idealized case with periodic boundary conditions
• Looking at parallel inflow-outflow option for mesoscale models
for which the above is difficult
© Crown copyright Met Office
CONSTRAIN: Cold air
outbreak 31 Jan 2010
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1.5 km
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Global
Ceres
MODIS
Dx=333m
333kmx167km
© Crown copyright Met Office
Aside: Interest also for existing global models
(weather and climate)
ISCCP analysis
Williams et al
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Cloudnet
Illingworth et al.
Workshops, publications, meetings
© Crown copyright Met Office
WGNE-THORPEX PDP

Joint expert meeting on “Diagnosis of Forecast Errors” held
in Zurich, July 2010

State of the art models still suffer from substantial errors

Diagnostic work (+dynamical expertize) has potential to inform
developers at process level to guide development

Future activities on application of diagnostic techniques to monsoon
problems and cyclonic systems


ECMWF/Met Office working together on monsoon and planning
to extend invitation, through WGNE, for input from other
centres when work sufficiently mature
WGNE/PDP/ECMWF workshop on model error, June 2011
© Crown copyright Met Office
Other forthcoming meetings

YOTC Science Symposium (Beijing, May 2011)

Annual WGNE meeting (NCAR, October 2011)
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
Physics of weather/climate models (JPL, Spring 2012)
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Planning joint workshop with GODAE/OceanView to look at current knowledge of
pros/cons of ocean coupling for NWP, and consider need for co-ordinated
experimentation
Aerosol/chemistry for NWP (2013?)


With WWRP, WCRP partners
Oceans for NWP (2012?)
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
Joint session with WGCM
As above for question of what level of aerosol/chemistry is necessary for NWP.
Need to engage with GAW community.
WGNE systematic errors meeting (2013?)
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Summary

WGNE hosts a wide range of activities in support of
model evaluation and development.

Enhanced collaboration with WWRP/THORPEX.

Meso-scale group, THORPEX PDP and DAOS,
YOTC, JWGV, ...

Enhanced links to WCRP (SPARC, WGCM, WGSIP)

Model and DA development remains at the heart of
better forecasts at all ranges and needs to remain a
high priority!
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Membership changes
• Outgoing
• Pedro Silva Dias
• Pierre Gaultier
• Jim Hack
• Martin Miller
• Proposed new members
• Julio Bacmeister
• Saulo Freitas
• Jean-Noel Thepaut
• Ayrton Zadra
• Proposed ex-officio membership
• WWRP Mesoscale WG Chair (Jeanette Onvlee)
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Questions?
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