Transcript WGNE activities and plans Andy Brown and Christian Jakob WGNE co-chairs © Crown copyright Met Office.

WGNE activities and plans
Andy Brown and Christian Jakob
WGNE co-chairs
© Crown copyright Met Office
Liaison
© Crown copyright Met Office
•
WWRP: YOTC/MJO, grey-zone project with Mesoscale
WG, Joint Working Group on Verification, Polar and
subseasonal-seasonal projects
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THORPEX: PDP workshops, DAOS
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WGCM : Transpose-AMIP, metrics, model errors
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GEWEX (GASS(GCSS, GABLS), GLASS): MJO, greyzone, ideas to develop coupled land surface – boundary
layer study
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SPARC and WGSIP: impact of stratosphere on NWP?
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Operational centre reports and progress reviews
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Co-ordinated experiments and
projects
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• Transpose-AMIP
• SURFA
GOOD PROGRESS
LIMITED PROGRESS
• Cloudy-radiance
DONE
• Grey-zone GOOD PROGRESS
• Verification
• NWP performance (eg TCs, precipitation, issues with verification against
analysis) ONGOING
• Polar (CBS-style; ConcordIASI intercomparsion)
• Climate metrics
GOOD PROGRESS
• Effects of aerosol on NWP, seasonal
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NEW
REVIEW EVIDENCE NEXT YEAR
Transpose-AMIP:
testing climate models in NWP mode
• Core experiment is to run 64 hindcasts, each 5 days long, initialised
from ECMWF YOTC analysis.
• Optional experiment to repeat the same set of hindcasts with NASA
MERRA re-analysis or own analysis.
• The hindcasts spread through the annual and diurnal cycles and
chosen to tie in with YOTC and coincide with some of the IOPs in:
• VOCALS (SE Pacific stratocumulus)
• AMY (Asian monsoon)
• T-PARC (mid-latitude Pacific)
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Status of experiments:
EC-Earth (Frank Selten)
IPSL (Sandrine Bony/Solange
Fermepin)
Met Office (Keith Williams)
Meteo France (Michel Deque)
MIROC (Masahiro Watanabe)
MPI (Bjorn Stevens)
MRI (Tomoaki Ose)
NCAR (David Williamson/Brian
Medeiros)
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Expt
pledged
Expt run
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Awaiting
CMIP5 runs
Data
converted
Data on
ESG
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Technical
issues
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Awaiting
ESG upload
Awaiting
ESG upload
Awaiting
CMIP5 runs
Awaiting
CMIP5 runs
www.transpose-amip.info
Proposed diagnostic subprojects
• MJO dynamics in the Transpose-AMIP II hindcasts: (PI: Mitch Moncrieff)
• Water budget analysis (PI: Gill Martin)
• Comparison of methodologies (initial tendency using own analysis vs 5-day forecast
using alien analysis) (PI: Mark Rodwell)
• Cloud regimes (PI: Keith Williams)
• Intense extra-tropical windstorms (PI: Peter Knippertz)
• Relationship between short and long timescale model errors (PI: Shaocheng Xie)
• Regional investigation into model tendencies (PI: TBD)
• VOCALS analysis (PI: TBD)
• 2009 SE Asian monsoon analysis (PI: TBD)
• More desirable
• Real evidence at WGNE of some centres getting real value from examination of
errors at different timescales
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www.transpose-amip.info
SURFA
• Comparison of NWP surface flux
data with observational products
• Real-time provision of ECMWF
and DWD data for several years
• Within last year, JMA, MeteoFrance data added for 2008 and
2009
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Ge Peng et al, GRL submitted
Planned comparison of models with buoy
and cruise flux data (Chris Fairall)
• STRATUS/DART2 buoys, Chilean coast (+
cruise data)
• NTAS
(+cruises planned)
N. Atlantic Trade wind
• WHOTS
(+cruises planned)
Hawaii
• KEO
Kuroshio Extension
• PAPA
NW Pacific
How to invigorate / co-ordinate community efforts more widely on
use of ocean surface flux data to evaluate models (NWP as well as climate)?
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Grey zone project
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How to parametrize physical processes in
the “grey-zone” (1-10km)?
• Of interest to
• Operational mesoscale NWP
• Many already running at resolutions of a few km but
room for more systematic testing to complement existing
assessments of parametrization choices?
• Future global models
• What to do as global models enter this range?
• Regional climate models
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Proposed case: cold-air outbreak
• Designed to be relevant to and to engage as broad a range of
communities as possible
• Mesoscale modellers
• Global modellers
• LES/CRM/parametrization development community (GCSS)
• Case to be run across whole range of resolutions (from
convection resolved to fully parametrized)
• Back diagnose fluxes at different resolutions from high resolution
‘truth’
• Idealized case with periodic boundary conditions
• Parallel inflow-outflow option for mesoscale models for which
the above is difficult
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1.5 km
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Global
Ceres
MODIS
Ctrl
Mod BL
Change to inhibit cumulus
convection (in favour of
turbulent mixing) when
layer above LCL
sufficiently sheared
Obs
Mod BL
Ctrl
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Effect of mixing change on surface SW
bias in climate model
NEW-OLD
OLD Error map
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New Error map
green : own
analysis
Pink :
ECMWF
analysis
Blue :
radiosondes
The impact is more
marked at short
ranges (12hr vs 48h)
Scores wrt own
analysis better than
wrt independent
analysis
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Workshops, publications, meetings
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WGNE-THORPEX PDP
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Joint expert meeting on “Diagnosis of Forecast Errors” held
in Zurich, July 2010
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State of the art models still suffer from substantial errors
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Diagnostic work (+dynamical expertize) has potential to inform
developers at process level to guide development
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Future activities on application of diagnostic techniques to monsoon
problems and cyclonic systems
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ECMWF/Met Office working together on monsoon and planning
to extend invitation, through WGNE, for input from other
centres when work sufficiently mature
WGNE/PDP/ECMWF workshop on model error, June 2011
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Need more fundamental research into stochastic physics and linking
of that community to WGNE/GASS projects (e.g. grey zone)
Other forthcoming meetings
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Physics of weather/climate models (JPL, Spring 2012)
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With WWRP, WCRP partners
Ocean coupling (Washington, Autumn 2012)
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Joint workshop with GODAE/OceanView to look at current knowledge of
pros/cons of ocean coupling for NWP. Also use of short range coupled
model errors to understand longer-range ones
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Annual WGNE meeting (Toulouse, Autumn 2012)
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WGNE systematic errors meeting (Exeter, Spring 2013)
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Annual WGNE meeting (Melbourne, Autumn 2013)
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Aerosols for NWP?
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Next step: use of short-range coupled model errors to
inform climate model development
Coupled model DJF bias at day 30
GloSea4 seasonal DJF bias
Coupled model DJF bias at day 4
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Summary
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WGNE hosts a wide range of activities in support of
model evaluation and development.
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Enhanced collaboration with WWRP/THORPEX.
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Meso-scale group, THORPEX PDP and DAOS,
YOTC, JWGV, ...
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Enhanced links within WCRP (SPARC, WGCM,
WGSIP)
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Model and DA development remains at the heart of
better forecasts at all ranges and needs to remain a
high priority!
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Membership changes
• New members
• Julio Bacmeister
• Saulo Freitas
• Jean-Noel Thepaut
• Ayrton Zadra
• (Ex-officio) WWRP Mesoscale WG Chair (Jeanette
Onvlee)
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Questions?
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