Transcript WCRP to IGFA

(a selection of) Important data
and modeling activities
sponsored by WCRP in 20112012
Major findings, recommendations
and actions
Data/Modeling
• 24-28 October 2011, Boulder, WCRP Open Science Conference:
actionable science, http://www.wcrpclimate.org/conference2011/documents/WCRP%20Conference%20AGU
_Eos_mtg.pdf
– Prediction of the Earth System, bridging physical climate and biogeochemistry
– Cloud/aerosols/radiative feedback and climate sensitivities
– Regional climate/seamless prediction
– Quantify predicted climate uncertainty
– Decadal/initialized predictability
– Polar predictability
– Extremes attribution
– Sea-level rise
– Capacity building
• Most challenges will involve both data and modeling efforts
Data
•
18-20 April 2011, Frascati, WCRP-GCOS workshop on the evaluation of satellite-related
global climate datasets, http://www.wcrpclimate.org/documents/ECV_Wksp_WCRP_Report.pdf
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FACT1 data sets = great value and opportunity for verification and validation of Earth/climate
models
FACT 2 incompatibility of format, projection and error characteristics were identified as major
impediments to sub-optimal use of observations
AIM promote intercomparison and the evaluation of datasets of Essential Climate Variables (ECV)
following GCOS Requirements
FOCUS lessons learned and best practices for a manageable sub-set of space-based
observations rather than being all encompassing (future could focus on in situ and/or additional
space-based observational records)
ACTION establish an international framework for a consistent approach to the production,
evaluation and accessibility of global climate datasets, which could lead to inventory of essential
climate data sets
ONGOING discussions with NCDC to host ECV inventory on GOSIC, draft plan developed and
being reviewed
ESA tentatively agreed to host the follow-up meeting early 2013, possibly with WDAC2
Data
• WOAP Flux report, http://www.wcrpclimate.org/documents/woap_fluxes_report_01_2012.pdf
– Common issues over land, ice and sea:
• RECOM Evaluation of products (in-situ, models, reanalysis) and
accuracies, WDAC ideal for cross-entity dialogue
– Distribution of reference sites
• RECOM Initial consideration on land, optimization (distribution,
consistency, multi-variable
– Flux measurement and data processing
• RECOM Liaise with space agencies, gap analysis
– Global datasets of fluxes: RECOM devpt of community guidelines
– Evaluation of model fluxes: RECOM continuation of WGNE SURFA
Data
• 7-11 May 2012, Silver Spring, 4th International Reanalysis
Conference, http://icr4.org/ppts/Bosilovich_Wrapup.pdf
– FACT Reanalyses: one of most used info in climate research
– CHALL: unsecure funding, some observing systems at risk will impact
quality, bias correction and ref obs, uncertainty estimations, longer
periods
– NEED: international coordination
– POTENTIAL: coupled and hybrid assimilation, adjusting cov and
assimilation windows
– ACTION: conference every 4-5 years, data assimilation conference in
2 years
– ACTION: make reanalyses available on ESGF
Modeling
• 21-26 March 2011, Trieste, 1st International CORDEX
Conference,
http://cdsagenda5.ictp.it/askArchive.php?base=agenda&ca
teg=a10131&id=a10131s37t80/slides
– RECOM: leverage CMIP5 experience, approach, architecture,
formats
– RECOM: focus on 3 VIA applications (health, agriculture, water)
– CHALL: populate the GCM/RCM/RCP matrix
– RECOM: extend CORDEX mandate
– DONE: from “CORDEX Task Force on Regional Climate
Downscaling” to “CORDEX Science Advisory Team” established
– TO-DO: web portal consistency, develop all regions
– TO-DO: identify suitable observational data sets for each region
Modeling
• 5-9 March 2012, Honolulu, CMIP5 Analysis
Workshop, http://www.wcrpclimate.org/documents/ezine/WCRPnews_1403201
2.pdf
– CONCL: spread and patterns of new CMIP5 AOGCM and
ESM similar to CMIP3
– CHALL: some problems persist (double ITCZ, Arctic
clouds and circulation, Antarctic sea ice loss, etc)
– CHALL: CMIP5 has far more info to be analyzed, IPCC
deadline, continuous ESG population
– ACTION: prepare grounds for CMIP6, AR6
Modeling
• 20-23 March 2012, Pasadena, The Physics of
Weather and Climate Models
Others
• Past
– Drought workshops
– Sub-seasonal to seasonal Project (WCRP/WWRP)
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• Upcoming
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WGNE Systematic errors
WGNE Short to medium range coupled predictions
Pan-WGSIP
Pan-CORDEX
Data assimilation (TBD)
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• CLIVAR, CLIC, SPARC, GEWEX data and modeling activities
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