Transcript Slide 1

Update on CORDEX
Key issues for discussion
Filippo Giorgi
Abdus Salam ICTP
CORDEX-SAT meeting, ICTP 16-17 May, 2014
COordinated Regional Downscaling EXperiment
CORDEX
• Update on management
• Super-brief update on general
CORDEx progress (detailed ones on
regional efforts will be presented later
in the meeting)
• Brief summary of the ICRC-2013
• Issues emerging from current
experience and discussions
CORDEX Management
• The original Task Force on Regional Climate
Downscaling (TFRCD) was terminated after
successfully ending its mandate
• CORDEX is now a project within the newly
formed Working Group on Regional Climate
(WGRC)
• Science Advisory Team (SAT) was formed
CORDEX SAT
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F. Giorgi (Co-Chair, to be renewed)
W. Gutowski (Co-Chair)
I. Anguelovski (Spain) ?
R. Krishnan (India)
H.S. Kang (Korea)
C. Lennard (S. Africa)
G. Nikulin (Sweden)
S. Solman (Argentina)
T. Stephenson (Caribbean)
F. Tangang (Malaysia)
B. Timbal (Australia)
CORDEX Phase I experiment design
Model Evaluation
Framework
AMIP
like
Climate Projection
Framework
Multiple regions (Initial focus on Africa)
50 km grid spacing
ERA-Interim LBC
1989-2007
CMIP
like
RCP4.5, RCP8.5
1951-2100 or 1980-2050
Decadal predictions
1980-2010, 1990-2000, 2005-2035
Regional Analysis
Regional Databanks
Multiple AOGCMs
CORDEX: Recent Progress
• Numerous CORDEX presentations at major
meetings
– EGU RCM session largest in the CL area
– Regional modeling session at AGU
• Major pan-CORDEX conference ICRCCORDEX 2013 (See next slide)
• Many model communities completing
ensembles of simulations over various domains
• Papers appearing with explicit use of CORDEX
framework (JC, CD, JGR, CR, CC etc.)
The Conference will bring together the international community of regional climate
scientists to present and discuss results from WCRP regional climate studies, with
a particular emphasis on the CORDEX initiative.
4 Nov: High-Level Session
• High-Level Session: key findings from the IPCC AR5 WGI: The Physical
Science Basis
• Stakeholder Dialogue: regional climate information for decision-makers
5-7 Nov: Science Segment
• Key results from Regional Climate Research and Phase I of the CORDEX
project
ICRC-CORDEX 2013 conference
• Venue and time: Brussels, 4-7 November 2013
• Two segments
– Day 1: High level IPCC segment
– Day 2-4: Scientific conference
• Expected attendance
– Over 500 registrations
– ~470 abstracts submitted
• Plenary + Poster sessions+ side focused meetings
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CORDEX progress/achievements
Issues in dynamical and statistical downscaling
Application to IAV work
Future developments/directions
• Co-sponsorship by the EU Com. and other agencies
Emerging issues for discussion
• Need for a mechanism for better
coordination/homogeneization across activities
in the different CORDEX domains and more
generally across the wider CORDEX
community
– The creation of a CORDEX International Project
Office (CIPO) will substantially help in this regard
– Three good applications for the CIPO have been
submitted and will be evaluated
Emerging issues for discussion
• Data management and distribution
– See Grigory’s presentation/discussion
– Interaction with the end-user community
• Need of a clear protocol for the identification
and “approval” of CORDEX domains
– New domains are being proposed based on
different “regional” needs: MENA, SE Asia
– Important issue as the target horizontal resolution
increases
Emerging issues for discussion
• Better integration of statistical downscaling
– See Bertrand’s presentation and discussion
• Possible increased focus on regionally-specific
forcings
– Effects of land-use change; collaboration with the
LUCID project
– Effects of aerosols
– Regional attribution
Emerging issues for discussion
• Transition to CORDEX Phase II
• Increase of “base” resolution: 50 km  25 km
• Development of regional pilot “flagship” studies
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High resolution (non-hydrostatic, cloud resolving?)
Process based analysis
Added value
Use of multiple downscaling techniques
Earth system coupling
Regional forcings (land-use, aerosols)
Comprehensive comparison with observations
End-to-end, climate-to-end user, studies
Production of actionable information
Emerging issues for discussion
• Strong need of funding in support of CORDEX
research.
• RCMs are currently mostly seen as “tools” to
produce ouput in support of climate services,
but substantial model development is needed,
especially when going to non-hydrostatic
resolutions.
– Need of lobbying for model development projects !!!
THANK YOU
Flagship pilot studies
• Motivation: Focused studies to address key questions
about the “value” of the CORDEX approach
• What are the questions?
– High resolution (non-hydrostatic, cloud resolving)
– Process based analysis
– Added value
– Use of multiple downscaling techniques
– Earth system coupling
– Regional forcings (landuse, aerosols)
– Comprehensive comparison with observations
– End-to-end, climate-to-end user, studies
– Production of “actionable” information
Key issue: How do we choose
the flagship studies
• A decision protocol will be needed
• Some criteria will be needed
– Based on physical science key issues/hotspots
– Based on VIA key issues/hotspots
– Based on availability of high quality,
comprehensive (multi-discipline) data, observation
campaigns etc.
– Based on interactions with other WCRP programs
(e.g. GEWEX)
– Based on availability of (or potential for) funding