Transcript Climate Change: AND NOW FOR THE GOOD NEWS! We CAN reduce the CO2 and other greenhouse gases in our atmosphere to safer levels.

Climate Change:
AND NOW FOR
THE GOOD NEWS!
We CAN reduce the CO2 and other
greenhouse gases in our atmosphere
to safer levels
5
2.0
4
1.5
3
1.0
2
0.5
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Per Capita Emissions (tonnes C person-1 y-1)
Total CO2 emissions (Gt C y-1)
Top 20 CO2 Emitters & Per Capita Emissions 2009
(5.4 tnC = 20 tnCO2)
Global Carbon Project 2010; Data: Gregg Marland, Thomas Boden-CDIAC 2010; Population World Bank 2010
The solutions !
November
2009
That’s ALL
the WORLD’s
energy
November
2009
The ‘WWS’
solution:
Wind
Water
Solar
NOT
including:
CCS,
Nuclear,
Other
‘exotic’
sources
HUGE RESOURCES
AVAILABLE
AVAILABLE
TECHNOLOGY
COST EFFECTIVE
POLITICS
BIGGEST
OBSTACLE
9%
51%
NEEDED
11.5 TW
40%
READILY
AVAILABLE
580 TW
Tidal
Geothermal
Hydro
Wind
Wave
Solar Roof PV
Concentrated
solar
PV Power
85%
 REDUCE household
energy demand by 50%
 Electrify all transport
(reduce car use)
 Changes to agriculture
(away from red meat and imports)
 Large increase in offshore wind power
 Load timing and biomass
backup
 Connect to European
grid
Australian Solutions!
 The big picture:
 Solar and Wind
 supplemented by




Hydro
Biofuels
Geothermal
Ocean (tidal and wave)
 and perhaps ?
 Gas (?)
 Nuclear (??)
 Coal with CCS (???)
283 GW = about 170 ‘Hazelwoods’
2013 ~ 318,000
The Solutions! – World wind power
The Solutions! – World wind power
Global Wind Power potential and actual use.
Data on next slide is from Global potential for wind-generated
electricity Xi Lua, Michael B. McElroya,and Juha Kiviluomac:
PNAS 7 July 2009 (Proceedings of the National Academy of
Sciences USA)
Data on following slides is from Cleantechnica‘s Zachary
Shahan who used the findings of the most recent study by
the Global Wind Energy Council (GWEC), released February
2012 to calculate the ranking of the top 20 countries in terms
of cumulative installed wind power (per MW) per million
people (to end of 2011), and newly installed wind power per
million people (in 2011).
Graphs by KB
Total PV including domestic
Based on data from Global potential for wind-generated electricity
Xi Lua, et.al. PNAS July 2009
Total potential wind power
by country
Australia’s TOTAL
Power use is about
400 GW (Everything!)
Based on data from
Currently installed wind power
per million people
Based on data from
New wind power installed in
2011 per million people
Australian Solutions - solar!
Australian Solutions - solar!
The yellow
square is
about 100 km
Receives ~200
PJ of solar
energy per
day
Ample for ALL of
Australia’s
energy (at only
5% collection
efficiency).
[A city uses
around 1 PJ
of electricity
per day]
TOTAL Australian energy use:
~ 11 PJ per day = 120 GW
That is about 80 ‘Hazelwoods’ (1.6 GW)
PV Power Plants (>10 MW) Installed - Total Power
3500
3000
Peak power (MWp)
2500
2000
1500
1000
500
0
Data from Wiki Solar July 2013
Total PV including domestic
(Thousand GWp)
Total POTENTIAL CSP
by country
Total installed CSP
by country
International
Action
 But why should
we do anything
while nobody else
does?
 Many MOST are
doing FAR more
than us!
Trial and error in a carbon world Adam Morton Sat Age November 12, 2011
International Action
 China is doing
FAR more than
us!
26 October 2006
154 Megawatt
Concentrated Solar PV
18 July 2013
1½ Megawatt
Media Bias
The Coal Seam
Gas issue:
Emissions “up to
87% smaller”
Media Bias
The Coal Seam
Gas issue:
Emissions “up to
87% smaller”
Media Bias
How to get 87% less!
The Institute has found that
$4.5 billion in subsidies are
given to the mining
industry each year –
including:
$2,349 million in fuel
subsidies
$495 million in tax write-offs
for capital works
$550 million in deductions for
exploration and
prospecting
$400 million in accelerated
depreciation write-offs
Zero Carbon Australia 2020
A plan for repowering Australia with 100%
renewable energy in ten years
www.bze.org.au
ZERO
beyond
emissions.org
Science based. Solutions focused.
•
•
•
•
•
Volunteer run
Probono contributions
Completely independent
Staff coordinators
Run on donations
beyondZEROemissions.org
Zero Carbon Australia Stationary Energy
Plan Contributors
beyondZEROemissions.org
Zero Carbon Australia Plan (ZCA) Guiding Principles
• Fully accept latest climate science evidence
• Uses only proven commercially available
technology
• 100% renewable energy in 10 years
• Maintain or enhance Australia’s:
• Energy Supply security and reliability
• Food and water security
• Standard of living
beyondZEROemissions.org
The Zero Carbon
Australia Project
• Stationary Energy Plan
Released July 2010
• Buildings Plan
Released August 2013
• Transport Plan: Very soon
• Land Use Plan IN PROGRESS
• Industrial Processes
• Australia as Energy Superpower
beyondZEROemissions.org
“We have the resources. We need
the will.”
Dr. Peter Doherty, Nobel Laureate,
School of Medicine, University of
Melbourne
beyondZEROemissions.org
“Wow! What a wealth of practical
information … should be
compulsory reading for anyone
who aspires to design, construct
or operate buildings in Australia.
BZE’s recommendations
deserve to be taken very
seriously.”
-- CRAIG ROUSSAC
CEO, BUILDINGS ALIVE
beyondZEROemissions.org
Lateline 28 Nov 2013: “High Speed Rail $billions
cheaper than government estimation”
Why ten years?
Carbon Budget 2010-2050
“Limiting CO2
emissions to
1 trillion tonnes* by
2050 gives us a
75% chance of
keeping global
warming below
2oC”
•2000 – 2050
•BUT we have
already used
almost half!
Meinshausen, et al. (2009):
Greenhouse-gas emission targets
for limiting global warming to 2oC.
Nature 458, 30 April 2009
SEE ALSO www.PRIMAP.org b e y o n d Z E R O e m i s s i o n s . o r g
Why ten years?
Carbon Budget 2010-2050
We are here
Most of Europe
beyondZEROemissions.org
beyondZEROemissions.org
Generating electrical energy
67% Fossil
92%
beyondZEROemissions.org
Generating electrical energy
Traditional Power Generation
beyondZEROemissions.org
Generating electrical energy – from the Sun
Concentrated Solar Thermal
Parabolic Troughs
Power Towers
beyondZEROemissions.org
Concentrated Solar Thermal
Concentrated Solar Thermal
PS20 Abengoa Spain (near Seville)
Concentrated Solar Thermal
Solnova, Abengoa Spain (near Seville)
Solnova, Abengoa Spain (near Seville)
PS10
PS20
Gema
solar
Anda
sol
SEGS Plants
354MW in Mohave Desert, California, since 1984
(Solar Electric Generating Stations)
Andasol Spain (near Granada)
SEGS Plants
354MW in Mohave Desert, California, since 1984
(Solar Electric Generating Station)
Solar Two – 1996 - 1999
Run by the U.S. DoE,
Sandia National Laboratories,
Lockheed Martin
10MW turbine, 3 hrs storage
Concentrated Solar
Thermal with
Storage
Gemasolar, Spain 20 MW Day AND NIGHT
Gemasolar, Spain 20 MW Day AND NIGHT
NOW!
Heliostat
565oC
290oC
‘Un-Molten’
Salt
Thermal Storage
Thermal Storage
World Solar Thermal growth
•
Spain
•
•
•
2,440MW by 2013, 15,000 MW 'in the pipeline'
$20Bn of investment
USA/China/Europe/Africa
Australia?
beyondZEROemissions.org
Australia?
beyondZEROemissions.org
Australia?
Huge solar project in limbo as Newman pulls funding
March 29, 2012
The new LNP government plans to pull funding for the Solar
Dawn solar research and power plant at Chinchilla.
The first chance to test whether solar thermal energy can
provide large-scale alternative power in Australia may be in
doubt under the new LNP state government.
The incoming Queensland government wants to pull out of an
agreement formed by its predecessor to provide $75 million
towards the $1.2 billion Solar Dawn solar research and power
plant at Chinchilla, west of Toowoomba, Premier Campbell
Newman said yesterday.
beyondZEROemissions.org
Generating electrical energy – from the Sun
Zero Carbon Australia Solar Thermal Power
220 MW Module





3500 MW Solar Region
To Supply 60% of Australia’s energy
Each module generates up to 220MW
Ability to store energy and dispatch as needed, day or night
A plant or Solar Region will be made up of 19 modules and will
have a total capacity of 3,500MW
There will be 12 Solar Regions across Australia (→ 42 GW total)
beyondZEROemissions.org
Generating electrical energy – from wind
ZCA2020 Wind Power
And the other 40%?
beyondZEROemissions.org
Generating electrical energy – from wind
ZCA2020 Wind Power
• 40% of Australia’s total Energy
• 6,400 turbines (7.5 MW)
Aus 48,000 MW
beyondZEROemissions.org
World Wind Power growth
•
•
Sweden 4,000 MW 1100 Enercon Turbines
Denmark 50% wind by 2025
•
•
20% in 2010
China 150,000 MW wind by 2020
beyondZEROemissions.org
ZCA Wind Power
• Supply 40% of Australia’s stationary energy
• 6,400 7.5 MW Enercon E-126 turbines
• Wind Region. 2,000 - 3,000 MW
• 270 - 400 turbines
• 23 wind regions across Australia
beyondZEROemissions.org
Using less energy
Energy Efficiency Opportunities
beyondZEROemissions.org
“Wow! What a wealth of practical
information … should be
compulsory reading for anyone
who aspires to design, construct
or operate buildings in Australia.
BZE’s recommendations
deserve to be taken very
seriously.”
-- CRAIG ROUSSAC
CEO, BUILDINGS ALIVE
beyondZEROemissions.org
ZCA Buildings Plan
Replacing all gas fired appliances/services with efficient
electric alternatives
Upgrading centralised air-conditioning systems
Fully insulating buildings
Reducing solar heat gain through windows
Full draught proofing;
LED lighting replacement for all lighting types;
Raising the bar on energy performance for electrical
appliances
Training in energy efficiency and working
Real time feedback via Energy Management Systems
On site renewable energy generation with solar
photovoltaic and microwind.
beyondZEROemissions.org
Using less energy
beyondZEROemissions.org
Using less energy
Gas
space
heater
Split system
heat pump
beyondZEROemissions.org
Using less energy
ZCA Total Electrical Energy Demand
Existing services
beyondZEROemissions.org
Using less energy
ZCA Total Electrical Energy Demand
Electrifying other fuels
beyondZEROemissions.org
Using less energy
ZCA Total Electrical Energy Demand
Electrifying transport
beyondZEROemissions.org
Using less energy
Energy Efficiency in Transport –
Nissan Patrol
Capacity 5
17 litres per
100km
Siemens Combino tram
Capacity 190
16 litres per 100km
(Oil Energy Equiv)
beyondZEROemissions.org
Using less energy
Energy Efficiency in Transport –
95% efficient
20% efficient at best
Wasted
Used
beyondZEROemissions.org
Using less energy
Australia Business as usual Electricity Use
TOTAL MW.hours per person per year (2010 – 2030)
33 kWh/day
beyondZEROemissions.org
Using less energy
ZCA and German Electricity Use
TOTAL MW.hours per person per year (2010 – 2030)
33 kWh/day
ZCA
Germany
beyondZEROemissions.org
Using less energy
beyondZEROemissions.org
Zurich
Using less energy
Munich, Germany
Using less energy
Copenhagen
Using less energy
Copenhagen
Using less energy
Copenhagen
Melbourne
beyondZEROemissions.org
Using less energy
beyondZEROemissions.org
Australian Total End-Use Energy
Present
ZCA 2020
beyondZEROemissions.org
100% Renewable Energy for
Australia - three main components
Concentrated solar
thermal power
Wind power
Upgraded
electricity grid
Renewable electrical energy
The National Grid
SKM Review of ZCA2020 transmission
“The review finds that the transmission
scenario proposed is technically feasible in
terms of capacity and reliability. In addition, the
proposed transmission uses mature technology
with proven capability around the world.”
beyondZEROemissions.org
Renewable electrical energy
HVDC High Voltage Direct Current
 Forget the “you can’t
transmit power that
far” mantra
 HVDC has been
developed in the last
decade and has solved
the problem of long
distance transmission
beyondZEROemissions.org
Renewable electrical energy
HVDC
High Voltage Direct Current
 Transmits more power on
a given line
 Doesn’t lose power
through radiation
 Enables different systems
to be interconnected
 Can be used over 1000’s
km rather than 100’s
beyondZEROemissions.org
Renewable electrical energy
Simplified illustration of the
advantage of HVDC over HVAC
AC only at peak voltage for a short time
DC at peak voltage constantly
beyondZEROemissions.org
Renewable electrical energy
HVDC is more
cost effective
over long
distances
AC
DC
1000 km
beyondZEROemissions.org
2000 km
Australia's
energy
grid: Grid
20202020
Australia’srenewable
Renewable
Energy
Renewable electrical energy
100% Renewable Stationary Energy
Bio, Hydro 2%
Wind 40%
Solar 60%
beyondZEROemissions.org
beyondZEROemissions.org
beyondZEROemissions.org
beyondZEROemissions.org
beyondZEROemissions.org
beyondZEROemissions.org
Renewable electrical energy
Resource Requirements
beyondZEROemissions.org
Renewable electrical energy
Enercon Viana Do Costelo Wind Turbine blade and tower
factories Portugal
250 towers per year 600 Blades 400 Jobs
beyondZEROemissions.org
Peak Concentrated Solar ‘roll-out’
600,000 Heliostats
30 concrete towers
beyondZEROemissions.org
Renewable electrical energy
Labor Requirements
140 thousand
beyondZEROemissions.org
Achievability: Jobs In Context
140 thousand
beyondZEROemissions.org
Solar Thermal Cost Reduction
beyondZEROemissions.org
Safe Climate: a Bargain at 3% of GDP
beyondZEROemissions.org
Economics
ZCA investment - $370 billion – 3% of AUS
GDP for 10 years
Component
$AU,Bn
Solar Thermal
$175
Wind
$72
Transmission
$92
Other
$31
Total
$370
beyondZEROemissions.org
Economics
ZCA per year and Australia’s GDP
ZCA
AUS GDP (2009)
1200
• ZCA – $37Bn for 10 years
• Australian Gambling 2009 – $20Bn (ONE yr!)
• Australian Insurance 2009 – $38Bn (ONE yr!)
beyondZEROemissions.org
Economic Cost over 30 years
Electricity only (325TWh/yr)
$Bn
beyondZEROemissions.org
Economic Cost – ALL energy, 30 years
beyondZEROemissions.org
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 Text
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PV “Farms”
PV “Farms”
t
PV “Farms”
t
But how do we store it?
 Pumped hydro
Australian Sustainable
Energy by the numbers
Peter Seligman
Nullarbor pumped seawater
electricity storage
Bunda cliffs
From Google Earth
200 GWh battery
That is, about 8 hours of energy for all Oz
Okinawa pumped seawater electricity
storage
But how do we store it?
 Compressed air
But how do we store it?
 Compressed air
But how do we store it?
 Batteries
But how do we store it?
 Batteries
www.bze.org.au
beyondZEROemissions.org
OUR CHOICE
FOR THE NEXT
30 YEARS
1 m2 mirror
zero emissions
OR
20 tons of coal
72 tonnes CO2
half the jobs
www.bze.org.au
beyondZEROemissions.org
Where to next?
?????? Notes from Keith
Is PV + Battery storage the way to go?
Will the grid survive?
Didn’t have time to talk about this at the conference, but there are big questions
about what will happen as solar PV + battery storage approaches grid parity – ie it
becomes economic to disconnect from the grid and use only PV with storage. It
already is in many regional areas. Within a few years it probably will be in cities.
BUT that usually assumes that gas will be used for cooking, space heating and hot
water. Those are around half (or more) of the normal domestic energy use. As
shown in the BZE Buildings Plan, we need to move away from gas as it locks in a
level of CO2 emissions that might be a little less than coal-fired electricity, but is
nowhere near the level we need to reach to seriously tackle climate change – ie
almost zero.
The problem is that if many people move off-grid, those who can’t will have to pay
more and more as the cost is shared among fewer households. This could lead to
what has been called the ‘death spiral’ for the grid. As the cost rises more and
more people abandon it and cause ever more cost increases!
This has been discussed on the renewable energy news sites on the next slide:
Where to next?
?????? Notes from Keith
Discussion of grid-parity and the ‘grid death-spiral’. The two sites below are a great
source of info on these issues – and you can sign up for daily updates:
www.reneweconomy.com.au
www.businessspectator.com.au/climate
In particular see:
http://reneweconomy.com.au/2014/will-the-grid-become-optional-solar-and-storage-already-at-parity-49444
http://reneweconomy.com.au/2013/energy-storage-why-we-need-it-and-what-its-worth-55835
http://www.businessspectator.com.au/article/2014/2/26/smart-energy/how-close-great-grid-defection
Another great site is
https://theconversation.com/au
https://theconversation.com/pumped-hydro-energy-storage-making-better-use-of-wind-18565
The following slides are ones I would have talked to given more time. The the notes page below the slide for more on
each one.
http://www.ecoult.com/blog/2013/06/04/ultrabattery-energy-storage-system-featuring-in-pnms-latest-commercial-2/
http://www.energyforthepeople.com.au/
reneweconomy.com.au
The big question! If too many people go off-grid,
will it lead to grid collapse? That would actually
be a social disaster!
The best answer to the emission problem is
large scale renewable generation and storage
supplied by CSP, wind and pumped hydro
storage as well as rooftop solar PV fed into the
grid.