Transcript Climate Change Science & Solutions Part 4: Toward Zero Emissions Keith Burrows Australian Institute of Physics Education Committee (Vic)

Climate Change
Science & Solutions
Part 4: Toward Zero
Emissions
Keith Burrows
Australian Institute of Physics
Education Committee (Vic)
The solutions !
November
2009
That’s ALL the
WORLD’s
energy in 20 yr
HUGE RESOURCES
AVAILABLE
AVAILABLE
TECHNOLOGY
COST EFFECTIVE
POLITICS
BIGGEST
OBSTACLE
9%
51%
NEEDED
11.5 TW
40%
READILY
AVAILABLE
580 TW
Tidal
Geothermal
Hydro
Wind
Wave
Solar Roof PV
Concentrated
solar
PV Power
85%
Australian Solutions!
 The big picture:
 Solar and Wind
 supplemented by
 Hydro
 Biofuels
 Geothermal
 Ocean (tidal and wave)
 and perhaps:
 Gas (?)
 Nuclear (??)
 Coal with CCS (???)
 SAHE (????)
As yet unknown or unforseen sources of energy?
283 GW = about 170 ‘Hazelwoods’
2013 ~ 318,000
The Solutions! – World wind power
The Solutions! – World wind power
Australian Solutions - wind!
 “A [world] network of land-based 2.5 MW turbines
… operating at as little as 20% of their rated
capacity could supply over 40 times the current
worldwide consumption of electricity”
Global potential for wind-generated electricity Lua, McElroy, Kiviluomac, Harvard & Finland, April09
Australia’s
86 PWh =
850 PJ/day
Annual
Global potential for wind-generated electricity:
Xi Lua, Michael B. McElroya, and Juha Kiviluomac
Current total
energy use
is ~16 PJ/day)
Current wind ~ 0.2 PJ/d
Global Wind Power potential and actual use.
Data on next slide is from Global potential for wind-generated
electricity Xi Lua, Michael B. McElroya,and Juha Kiviluomac:
PNAS 7 July 2009 (Proceedings of the National Academy of
Sciences USA)
Data on following slides is from Cleantechnica‘s Zachary
Shahan who used the findings of the most recent study by
the Global Wind Energy Council (GWEC), released February
2012 to calculate the ranking of the top 20 countries in terms
of cumulative installed wind power (per MW) per million
people (to end of 2011), and newly installed wind power per
million people (in 2011).
Graphs by KB
Based on data from Global potential for wind-generated electricity
Xi Lua, et.al. PNAS July 2009
Total potential wind power
by country
Australia’s TOTAL
Power use is about
400 GW
Based on data from
Currently installed wind power
per million people
Based on data from
New wind power installed in
2011 per million people
Australian Solutions - solar!
Australian Solutions - solar!
 The yellow
square is
about 100 km
 Receives
~200 PJ of
solar energy
per day
[A city uses
around 1 PJ
of electricity
per day]
 Ample for ALL
of Australia’s
energy (at only
5% collection
efficiency).
TOTAL Australian energy use:
~ 11 PJ per day = 120 GW
That is about 80 ‘Hazelwoods’ (1.6 GW)
PV Power Plants (>10 MW) Installed - Total Power
3500
3000
Peak power (MWp)
2500
2000
1500
1000
500
0
Data from Wiki Solar July 2013
Total PV including domestic
(Thousand GWp)
Total POTENTIAL CSP
by country
Total installed CSP
by country
International
Action
 But why should
we do anything
while nobody else
does?
 Many are doing
FAR more than
us!
Trial and error in a carbon world Adam Morton Sat Age November 12, 2011
International Action
 China is doing
FAR more than
us!
 The Institute has found
that $4.5 billion in




subsidies are given to the
mining industry each year
– including:
$2,349 million in fuel
subsidies
$495 million in tax writeoffs for capital works
$550 million in deductions
for exploration and
prospecting
$400 million in accelerated
depreciation write-offs
Zero Carbon Australia 2020
A plan for repowering Australia with 100%
renewable energy in ten years
www.bze.org.au
Science based. Solutions focused.
•
•
•
•
•
Volunteer run
Probono contributions
Completely independent
Staff coordinators
Run on donations
www.bze.org.au
Zero Carbon Australia Stationary Energy
Plan Contributors
www.bze.org.au
Zero Carbon Australia Plan (ZCA) Guiding Principles
• Fully accept latest climate science evidence
• Uses only proven commercially available
technology
• 100% renewable energy in 10 years
• Maintain or enhance Australia’s:
• Energy Supply security and reliability
• Food and water security
• Standard of living
www.bze.org.au
The Zero Carbon
Australia Project
• Stationary Energy Plan
Released July 2010
• Buildings Plan
Released August 2013
• Transport Plan: Very soon
• Land Use Plan IN PROGRESS
• Industrial Processes
• Australia as Energy Superpower
www.bze.org.au
“We have the resources. We need
the will.”
Dr. Peter Doherty, Nobel Laureate,
School of Medicine, University of
Melbourne
www.bze.org.au
“Wow! What a wealth of practical
information … should be
compulsory reading for anyone
who aspires to design, construct
or operate buildings in Australia.
BZE’s recommendations
deserve to be taken very
seriously.”
-- CRAIG ROUSSAC
CEO, BUILDINGS ALIVE
www.bze.org.au
Key Questions
•
•
•
Why 100% renewable by 2020?
What is the Technology?
•
Existing, commercially available
•
Baseload Solar Thermal with storage
•
Fully modelled
Materials, Jobs, Economics?
•
•
Resourced and costed in detail
How do we make this happen?
www.bze.org.au
Why ten years?
Carbon Budget 2010-2050
“Limiting CO2
emissions to
1 trillion tonnes* by
2050 gives us a
75% chance of
keeping global
warming below
2oC”
•2000 – 2050
•BUT we have
already used
almost half!
Meinshausen, et al. (2009):
Greenhouse-gas emission targets
for limiting global warming to 2oC.
Nature 458, 30 April 2009
SEE ALSO www.PRIMAP.org w w w . b z e . o r g . a u
Why ten years?
Carbon Budget 2010-2050
We are here
Our
Per
capita
CO2
budget
Most of Europe
if
spread
evenly
over
5
years
World Per capita CO2 budget if spread evenly over 40 yrs
www.bze.org.au
Hazelwood – 1.4 kg of CO2 for every 1 kilowatt.hour – one of worst in world!
Generating electrical energy
67% Fossil
92%
www.bze.org.au
Generating electrical energy
Traditional Power Generation
www.bze.org.au
Generating electrical energy – from the Sun
Concentrated Solar Thermal
Parabolic Troughs
Power Towers
www.bze.org.au
Concentrated Solar Thermal
www.bze.org.au
Concentrated Solar Thermal
www.bze.org.au
Solnova, Abengoa Spain (near Seville)
SEGS Plants
354MW in Mohave Desert, California, since 1984
(Solar Electric Generating Station)
Solar Two – 1996 - 1999
Run by the U.S. DoE,
Sandia National Laboratories,
Lockheed Martin
10MW turbine, 3 hrs storage
Concentrated Solar
Thermal with
Storage
Gemasolar, Spain 20 MW Day AND NIGHT
www.bze.org.au
Gemasolar, Spain 20 MW Day AND NIGHT
NOW!
www.bze.org.au
Heliostat
www.bze.org.au
565oC
290oC
www.bze.org.au
‘Un-Molten’
Salt
Thermal Storage
Thermal Storage
World Solar Thermal growth
•
Spain
•
•
•
2,440MW by 2013, 15,000 MW 'in the pipeline'
$20Bn of investment
USA/China/Europe/Africa
www.bze.org.au
Australia?
Generating electrical energy – from the Sun
Zero Carbon Australia Solar Thermal Power
220 MW Module





3500 MW Solar Region
To Supply 60% of Australia’s energy
Each module generates up to 220MW
Ability to store energy and dispatch as needed, day or night
A plant or Solar Region will be made up of 19 modules and will
have a total capacity of 3,500MW
There will be 12 plants distributed across Australia (→ 42 GW total)
www.bze.org.au
Generating electrical energy – from wind
ZCA2020 Wind Power
And the other 40%?
www.bze.org.au
Generating electrical energy – from wind
ZCA2020 Wind Power
• 40% of Australia’s total Energy
• 6,400 turbines (7.5 MW)
Aus 48,000 MW
www.bze.org.au
World Wind Power growth
•
•
Sweden 4,000 MW 1100 Enercon Turbines
Denmark 50% wind by 2025
•
•
20% in 2010
China 150,000 MW wind by 2020
www.bze.org.au
Using less energy
Energy Efficiency Opportunities
www.bze.org.au
“Wow! What a wealth of practical
information … should be
compulsory reading for anyone
who aspires to design, construct
or operate buildings in Australia.
BZE’s recommendations
deserve to be taken very
seriously.”
-- CRAIG ROUSSAC
CEO, BUILDINGS ALIVE
www.bze.org.au
ZCA Buildings Plan
Replacing all gas fired appliances/services with efficient
electric alternatives
Upgrading centralised air-conditioning systems
Fully insulating buildings
Reducing solar heat gain through windows
Full draught proofing;
LED lighting replacement for all lighting types;
Raising the bar on energy performance for electrical
appliances
Training in energy efficiency and working
Real time feedback via Energy Management Systems
On site renewable energy generation with solar
photovoltaic and microwind.
www.bze.org.au
Using less energy
www.bze.org.au
Using less energy
Gas
space
heater
Split system
heat pump
www.bze.org.au
Using less energy
ZCA Total Electrical Energy Demand
Existing services
www.bze.org.au
Using less energy
ZCA Total Electrical Energy Demand
Electrifying other fuels
www.bze.org.au
Using less energy
ZCA Total Electrical Energy Demand
Electrifying transport
www.bze.org.au
Using less energy
Energy Efficiency in Transport –
Nissan Patrol
Capacity 5
17 litres per
100km
Siemens Combino tram
Capacity 190
16 litres per 100km
(Oil Energy Equiv)
www.bze.org.au
Using less energy
Energy Efficiency in Transport –
95% efficient
20% efficient at best
Wasted
Used
www.bze.org.au
Using less energy
Australia Business as usual Electricity Use
TOTAL MW.hours per person per year (2010 – 2030)
33 kWh/day
www.bze.org.au
Using less energy
ZCA and German Electricity Use
TOTAL MW.hours per person per year (2010 – 2030)
33 kWh/day
ZCA
Germany
www.bze.org.au
Using less energy
Zurich
Using less energy
Munich, Germany
Using less energy
Copenhagen
Using less energy
Copenhagen
Melbourne
Using less energy
Australian Total End-Use Energy
Present
ZCA 2020
www.bze.org.au
100% Renewable Energy for
Australia - three main components
Concentrated solar
thermal power
Wind power
www.bze.org.au
Upgraded
electricity grid
Generating electrical energy – from the Sun
Zero Carbon Australia Solar Thermal Power
220 MW Module





3500 MW Solar Region
To Supply 60% of Australia’s energy
Each module generates up to 220MW
Ability to store energy and dispatch as needed, day or night
A plant or Solar Region will be made up of 19 modules and will
have a total capacity of 3,500MW
There will be 12 Solar Regions across Australia (→ 42 GW total)
www.bze.org.au
ZCA Wind Power
• Supply 40% of Australia’s stationary energy
• 6,400 7.5 MW Enercon E-126 turbines
• Wind Region. 2,000 - 3,000 MW
• 270 - 400 turbines
• 23 wind regions across Australia
www.bze.org.au
Renewable electrical energy
100% Renewable Stationary Energy
Bio, Hydro 2%
Wind 40%
Solar 60%
www.bze.org.au
Renewable electrical energy
The National Grid
SKM Review of ZCA2020 transmission
“The review finds that the transmission
scenario proposed is technically feasible in
terms of capacity and reliability. In addition, the
proposed transmission uses mature technology
with proven capability around the world.”
www.bze.org.au
Renewable electrical energy
HVDC High Voltage Direct Current
 Forget the “you can’t
transmit power that
far” mantra
 HVDC has been
developed in the last
decade and has solved
the problem of long
distance transmission
www.bze.org.au
Renewable electrical energy
HVDC
High Voltage Direct Current
 Transmits more power on
a given line
 Doesn’t lose power
through radiation
 Enables different systems
to be interconnected
 Can be used over 1000’s
km rather than 100’s
www.bze.org.au
Renewable electrical energy
Simplified illustration of the
advantage of HVDC over HVAC
AC only at peak voltage for a short time
DC at peak voltage constantly
www.bze.org.au
Renewable electrical energy
AC
HVDC is more
cost effective
over long
distances
DC
1000 km
www.bze.org.au
2000 km
Australia's
energy
grid: Grid
20202020
Australia’srenewable
Renewable
Energy
Renewable electrical energy
www.bze.org.au
Renewable electrical energy
www.bze.org.au
Renewable electrical energy
www.bze.org.au
Renewable electrical energy
www.bze.org.au
Renewable electrical energy
www.bze.org.au
Simulations of scenarios with 100% renewable electricity in the
Australian National Electricity Market
Ben Elliston, Mark Diesendorf, Iain MacGill,
Simulations of scenarios with 100% renewable electricity in the
Australian National Electricity Market
Ben Elliston, Mark Diesendorf, Iain MacGill,
Renewable electrical energy
Resource Requirements
www.bze.org.au
Renewable electrical energy
Getting the job done in 10 years
Manufacturing
Construction
www.bze.org.au
Renewable electrical energy
Enercon Viana Do Costelo Wind Turbine blade and tower
factories Portugal
250 towers per year 600 Blades 400 Jobs
www.bze.org.au
Renewable electrical energy
Peak Concentrated Solar ‘roll-out’
600,000 Heliostats
30 concrete towers
www.bze.org.au
Renewable electrical energy
Labour Requirements
140 thousand
www.bze.org.au
Renewable electrical energy
Labour Requirements
140 thousand
www.bze.org.au
Renewable electrical energy
Achievability: Jobs In Context
140 thousand
www.bze.org.au
Renewable electrical energy
Solar Thermal Cost Reduction
www.bze.org.au
Economics
ZCA investment - $370 billion
3% of AUS GDP for 10 years
Component
$AU,Bn
Solar Thermal
$175
Wind
$72
Transmission
$92
Other
$31
Total
$370
www.bze.org.au
Economics
ZCA per year and Australia’s GDP
ZCA
AUS GDP (2009)
1200
• ZCA – $37Bn for 10 years
• Australian Gambling 2009 – $20Bn (ONE yr!)
• Australian Insurance 2009 – $38Bn (ONE yr!)
www.bze.org.au
Economics
Economic Cost over 30 years
Electricity only (325TWh/yr)
$Bn
www.bze.org.au
Economics
Economic Cost – ALL energy, 30 years
www.bze.org.au
Blank
Text
www.bze.org.au
Blank
Renewable electrical energy
100% Renewable Stationary Energy
Bio, Hydro 2%
Wind 40%
Solar 60%
Solar PV ?
 No heat
 No steam
 No motion
 Direct to
electricity
www.bze.org.au
Cost of solar PV has dropped remarkably
And is now
competitive
even without
subsidies
www.bze.org.au
Cost of solar PV has dropped remarkably
This means
large scale
solar ‘farms’
may well be
more
economical
than CSP.
BUT....
www.bze.org.au
Cost of solar PV has dropped remarkably
How to store
the energy
for night and
cloud?
Batteries?
www.bze.org.au
CST still the best for 24 hour solar electricity
Concentrated
Solar
Thermal (or CSP)
with molten salt
heat storage still
seems the best
option for 24 hour
electricity
production.
www.bze.org.au
Other storage technology
may challenge CSP!
PV “Farms”
t
PV “Farms”
t
But how do we store it?
 The big problem is night time and low wind.
 We need to store enough energy in some
form to fill in overnight and possibly for a few
days.
 One option:
 Pumped hydro
 Others …
PV “Farms”
t
But how do we store it?
 Pumped hydro
Nullarbor pumped seawater
electricity storage
Bunda cliffs
From Google Earth
200 GWh battery
That is, about 8 hours of energy for all Oz
Okinawa pumped seawater electricity
storage
But how do we store it?
 Compressed air
But how do we store it?
 Compressed air
But how do we store it?
 Batteries
But how do we store it?
 Batteries – perhaps using ‘smart on-grid’ car
batteries?
www.bze.org.au
www.bze.org.au
Zero Carbon Australia - Conclusion
• Must be done to secure our climate and future
• Technically doable
• ‘Shovel ready’ using off the shelf technologies
• Fully Resourced
• We have the materials
• Jobs rich
• Fully Costed
• 3% of GDP for 10 years
• Saving over 30 years
www.bze.org.au
Zero Carbon Australia
Pipe Dream?
"It is time the Greens stopped
deliberately misleading the Australian
public with their claims that Australia
can move to 100 per cent renewable
energy within a decade," Mr Ferguson
told The Australian. "They are living in
fantasy land if they think this can be
achieved."
www.bze.org.au
Zero Carbon Australia
Pipe Dream?
Or doable dream of a
realistic, sustainable future
for our children?
www.bze.org.au
 Share the plan
 Zero Carbon Plan Contributor
Transport
Buildings
Land use
 Public Engagement
 Media team
www.beyondzeroemissions.org
www.bze.org.au
 Become a baseload supporter
 Your donation will go towards designing
& implementing Australia's new
renewable energy future.
 Assist volunteer coordinators
Technical Directors
Media
Administration
www.beyondzeroemissions.org
www.bze.org.au
www.bze.org.au
www.bze.org.au
OUR CHOICE
FOR THE NEXT
30 YEARS
1 m2 mirror
zero emissions
OR
20 tons of coal
72 tonnes CO2
half the jobs
www.bze.org.au