Transcript Climate Change: AND NOW FOR THE GOOD NEWS! We CAN reduce the CO2 and other greenhouse gases in our atmosphere to safer levels.

Climate Change:
AND NOW FOR
THE GOOD NEWS!
We CAN reduce the CO2 and other
greenhouse gases in our atmosphere
to safer levels
2.0
5
4
1.5
3
1.0
2
0.5
Global Carbon Project 2010; Data: Gregg Marland, Thomas Boden-CDIAC 2010; Population World Bank 2010
1
Per Capita Emissions (tonnes C person-1 y-1)
Total CO2 emissions (Gt C y-1)
Top 20 CO2 Emitters & Per Capita Emissions 2009
The solutions !
World action
 REDUCE household
energy demand by 50%
 Electrify all transport
(reduce car use)
 Changes to agriculture
(away from red meat and imports)
 Large increase in offshore wind power
 Load timing and biomass
backup
 Connect to European
grid
November
2009
That’s ALL
the WORLD’s
energy
November
2009
The ‘WWS’
solution:
Wind
Water
Solar
NOT
including:
CCS,
Nuclear,
Other
‘exotic’
sources
HUGE RESOURCES
AVAILABLE
AVAILABLE
TECHNOLOGY
COST EFFECTIVE
POLITICS
BIGGEST
OBSTACLE
9%
51%
NEEDED
11.5 TW
40%
READILY
AVAILABLE
580 TW
Tidal
Geothermal
Hydro
Wind
Wave
Solar Roof PV
Concentrated
solar
PV Power
85%
Australian Solutions!
 The big picture:
 Solar and Wind
 supplemented by




Hydro
Biofuels
Geothermal
Ocean (tidal and wave)
 and perhaps ?




Gas (?)
Nuclear (??)
Coal with CCS (???)
SEEPS - SAHE???
Submarine Aquifer Hydro Energy
Flexible Plastic Pipeline to Land
Over pressure spill
High Pressure (5-20 bar)
Rigid Ring connected to funnel
Freshwater Forced by Gravity
Marine Aquifer
Impermeable Plastic Funnel covered by sand
Geoff Croker
Fresh Water Aquifer Low
Pressure (<0.1 bar)
Oct 2012
The Solutions! – World wind power
The Solutions! – World wind power
Oz
Australia: approx 2,300 MW (one hundredth of total)
The Solutions! – World wind power
Actually now
Macarthur
420 MW
2009
Australia: approx 2,300 MW (2011) (Pop ~ 24 mill)
Denmark: approx 3,900 MW (2011) (Pop ~ 6 mill)
Australian Solutions - wind!
 “A [world] network of land-based 2.5 MW turbines
… operating at as little as 20% of their rated
capacity could supply over 40 times the current
worldwide consumption of electricity”
Global potential for wind-generated electricity Lua, McElroy, Kiviluomac, Harvard & Finland, April09
Australia’s
86 PWh =
850 PJ/day
Annual
Global potential for wind-generated electricity:
Xi Lua, Michael B. McElroya, and Juha Kiviluomac
Current total
energy use
is ~16 PJ/day)
Current wind ~ 0.2 PJ/d
Global Wind Power potential and actual use.
Data on next slide is from Global potential for wind-generated
electricity Xi Lua, Michael B. McElroya,and Juha Kiviluomac:
PNAS 7 July 2009 (Proceedings of the National Academy of
Sciences USA)
Data on following slides is from Cleantechnica‘s Zachary
Shahan who used the findings of the most recent study by
the Global Wind Energy Council (GWEC), released February
2012 to calculate the ranking of the top 20 countries in terms
of cumulative installed wind power (per MW) per million
people (to end of 2011), and newly installed wind power per
million people (in 2011).
Graphs by KB
Based on data from Global potential for wind-generated electricity
Xi Lua, et.al. PNAS July 2009
Total potential wind power
by country
Australia’s TOTAL
Power use is about
400 GW
Based on data from
Currently installed wind power
per million people
Based on data from
New wind power installed in
2011 per million people
Australian Solutions - solar!
Australian Solutions - solar!
 The yellow
square is
about 100 km
 Receives
~200 PJ of
solar energy
per day
[A city uses
around 1 PJ
of electricity
per day]
 Ample for ALL
of Australia’s
energy (at only
5% collection
efficiency).
TOTAL Australian energy use:
~ 11 PJ per day = 120 GW
That is about 80 ‘Hazelwoods’ (1.6 GW)
(Thousand GWp)
Total POTENTIAL CSP
by country
Total installed CSP
by country
2015
Total installed PV
by country 2011
International
Action
 But why should
we do anything
while nobody else
does?
 Many are doing
FAR more than
us!
Trial and error in a carbon world Adam Morton Sat Age November 12, 2011
International Action
 But why should
we do anything
while nobody else
does?
 Many are doing
FAR more than
us!
Media Bias
 The Coal Seam
Gas issue:
 Emissions “up
to 87% smaller”
Media Bias
 The Coal Seam
Gas issue:
 Emissions “up
to 87% smaller”
Media Bias
How to get 87% less!
Zero Carbon Australia 2020
A plan for repowering Australia with 100%
renewable energy in ten years
beyond
Z E R O emissions.org
Science based. Solutions focused.
•
•
•
•
•
Volunteer run
Probono contributions
Completely independent
Staff coordinators
Run on donations
beyondZEROemissions.org
Zero Carbon Australia Stationary Energy
Plan Contributors
beyondZEROemissions.org
Zero Carbon Australia Plan (ZCA) Guiding Principles
• Fully accept latest climate science evidence
• Uses only proven commercially available
technology
• 100% renewable energy in 10 years
• Maintain or enhance Australia’s:
• Energy Supply security and reliability
• Food and water security
• Standard of living
beyondZEROemissions.org
The Zero Carbon
Australia Project
• Stationary Energy Plan
RELEASED July 2010
• Transport Plan: Very soon
• Buildings Plan Very soon
• Land Use Plan IN PROGRESS
• Industrial Processes
• Replacing Coal Export Revenue
beyondZEROemissions.org
"Australia has one of the world's best
solar energy resource, ... The Zero
Carbon
Australia
Planshift
is based
on up"This report
will help
the climate
to-date
sound
and
debateand
to focus
oninformation
energy; security;
provides
quality
insights
how
a
“We have
the
resources.
need
affordability;
export
and on
ofWe
course
country
well-endowed in renewable
the will.”
opportunity”
resources can transition to a solar
and
Dr. wind
Petereconomy.”
Doherty,
Nobel Laureate,
Professor
Robin Batterham,
School of Australian
Medicine, University
of
President,
Academy of
Cédric
PhilibertSciences and
Melbourne
Technological
Renewable
Energy Division
Engineering,
International Energy Agency
formerly Chief Scientist of Australia
beyondZEROemissions.org
Key Questions
•
•
•
Why 100% renewable by 2020?
What is the Technology?
•
Existing, commercially available
•
Baseload Solar Thermal with storage
•
Fully modelled
Materials, Jobs, Economics?
•
•
Resourced and costed in detail
How do we make this happen?
beyondZEROemissions.org
Why ten years?
Carbon Budget 2010-2050
“Limiting CO2
emissions to
1 trillion tonnes* by
2050 gives us a
75% chance of
keeping global
warming below
2oC”
•2000 – 2050
•BUT we have
already used
almost half!
Meinshausen, et al. (2009):
Greenhouse-gas emission targets
for limiting global warming to 2oC.
Nature 458, 30 April 2009
SEE ALSO www.PRIMAP.org b e y o n d Z E R O e m i s s i o n s . o r g
Why ten years?
Carbon Budget 2010-2050
We are here
Per
capita
CO2
budget
Most of Europe
if
spread
evenly
over
5
years
Per capita CO2 budget if spread evenly over 40 years
beyondZEROemissions.org
Why ten years?
Thomas Friedman: Three reasons for going renewable 1. End dependence on, and financing
of, the “dictators and terrorists in
the Middle East”
2. ‘Peak oil’ will mean higher prices,
yet more political tension. If we
divide the total of the world’s oil
reserves by the rate at which WE
are using them we get about 12
years (7 for USA use)
3. And to save us from a climate
catastrophe!!
beyondZEROemissions.org
beyondZEROemissions.org
beyondZEROemissions.org
Generating electrical energy
67% Fossil
92%
beyondZEROemissions.org
Generating electrical energy
Traditional Power Generation
beyondZEROemissions.org
Generating electrical energy – from the Sun
Concentrated Solar Thermal
Parabolic Troughs
Power Towers
beyondZEROemissions.org
Concentrated Solar Thermal
beyondZEROemissions.org
Concentrated Solar Thermal
PS20 Abengoa Spain (near Seville)
Concentrated Solar Thermal
beyondZEROemissions.org
Solnova, Abengoa Spain (near Seville)
beyondZEROemissions.org
Solnova, Abengoa Spain (near Seville)
SEGS Plants
354MW in Mohave Desert, California, since 1984
(Solar Electric GeneratingbStations)
eyondZEROemissions.org
Andasol Spain (near Granada)
PS10
PS20
Gema
solar
Anda
sol
SEGS Plants
354MW in Mohave Desert, California, since 1984
(Solar Electric GeneratingbStations)
eyondZEROemissions.org
Andasol Spain (near Granada)
SEGS Plants
354MW in Mohave Desert, California, since 1984
(Solar Electric GeneratingbStation)
eyondZEROemissions.org
Solar Two – 1996 - 1999
Run by the U.S. DoE,
Sandia National Laboratories,
Lockheed Martin
10MW turbine, 3 hrs storage
beyondZEROemissions.org
Concentrated Solar
Thermal with
Storage
beyondZEROemissions.org
Gemasolar, Spain 20 MW Day AND NIGHT
beyondZEROemissions.org
beyondZEROemissions.org
Gemasolar, Spain 20 MW Day AND NIGHT
NOW!
beyondZEROemissions.org
Heliostat
beyondZEROemissions.org
565oC
290oC
beyondZEROemissions.org
‘Un-Molten’
Salt
beyondZEROemissions.org
Thermal Storage
beyondZEROemissions.org
Thermal Storage
beyondZEROemissions.org
World Solar Thermal growth
•
Spain
•
•
•
2,440MW by 2013, 15,000 MW 'in the pipeline'
$20Bn of investment
USA/China/Europe/Africa Australia?
beyondZEROemissions.org
Australia?
beyondZEROemissions.org
Australia?
Huge solar project in limbo as Newman pulls funding
March 29, 2012
The new LNP government plans to pull funding for the Solar
Dawn solar research and power plant at Chinchilla.
The first chance to test whether solar thermal energy can
provide large-scale alternative power in Australia may be in
doubt under the new LNP state government.
The incoming Queensland government wants to pull out of an
agreement formed by its predecessor to provide $75 million
towards the $1.2 billion Solar Dawn solar research and power
plant at Chinchilla, west of Toowoomba, Premier Campbell
Newman said yesterday.
beyondZEROemissions.org
Australia?
Wizard Power
“Big Dish” Proposed high temperature energy delivery platform for:
Steam based power generation Other power generation cycles , PV
Hybrid solutions – solar and natural gas
Thermochemical processing – for the production of hydrogen and gaseous fuels,
beyondZEROemissions.org
Generating electrical energy – from the Sun
Zero Carbon Australia Solar Thermal Power
220 MW Module





3500 MW Solar Region
To Supply 60% of Australia’s energy
Each module generates up to 220MW
Ability to store energy and dispatch as needed, day or night
A plant or Solar Region will be made up of 19 modules and will
have a total capacity of 3,500MW
There will be 12 plants distributed across Australia (→ 42 GW total)
beyondZEROemissions.org
Generating electrical energy – from wind
ZCA2020 Wind Power
And the other 40%?
beyondZEROemissions.org
Generating electrical energy – from wind
ZCA2020 Wind Power
• 40% of Australia’s total Energy
• 6,400 turbines (7.5 MW)
Aus 48,000 MW
beyondZEROemissions.org
World Wind Power growth
•
•
Sweden 4,000 MW 1100 Enercon Turbines
Denmark 50% wind by 2025
•
•
20% in 2010
China 150,000 MW wind by 2020
beyondZEROemissions.org
Using less energy
Energy Efficiency Opportunities
beyondZEROemissions.org
Using less energy
ZCA Total Electrical Energy Demand
Existing services
beyondZEROemissions.org
Using less energy
ZCA Total Electrical Energy Demand
Electrifying other fuels
beyondZEROemissions.org
Using less energy
ZCA Total Electrical Energy Demand
Electrifying transport
beyondZEROemissions.org
Using less energy
Energy Efficiency in Transport –
Nissan Patrol
Capacity 5
17 litres per
100km
Siemens Combino tram
Capacity 190
16 litres per 100km
(Oil Energy Equiv)
beyondZEROemissions.org
Using less energy
Energy Efficiency in Transport –
95% efficient
20% efficient at best
Wasted
Used
beyondZEROemissions.org
Using less energy
Australia Business as usual Electricity Use
TOTAL MW.hours per person per year (2010 – 2030)
33 kWh/day
beyondZEROemissions.org
Using less energy
ZCA and German Electricity Use
TOTAL MW.hours per person per year (2010 – 2030)
33 kWh/day
ZCA
Germany
beyondZEROemissions.org
Using less energy
beyondZEROemissions.org
Zurich
Using less energy
beyondZEROemissions.org
Munich, Germany
Using less energy
beyondZEROemissions.org
Malmo, Sweden
Using less energy
Copenhagen
beyondZEROemissions.org
Using less energy
Copenhagen
beyondZEROemissions.org
Using less energy
Copenhagen
beyondZEROemissions.org
Melbourne
Using less energy
beyondZEROemissions.org
Australian Total End-Use Energy
Present
ZCA 2020
beyondZEROemissions.org
100% Renewable Energy for
Australia - three main components
Concentrated solar
thermal power
Wind power
beyondZEROemissions.org
Upgraded
electricity grid
Generating electrical energy – from the Sun
Zero Carbon Australia Solar Thermal Power
220 MW Module





3500 MW Solar Region
To Supply 60% of Australia’s energy
Each module generates up to 220MW
Ability to store energy and dispatch as needed, day or night
A plant or Solar Region will be made up of 19 modules and will
have a total capacity of 3,500MW
There will be 12 Solar Regions across Australia (→ 42 GW total)
beyondZEROemissions.org
ZCA Wind Power
• Supply 40% of Australia’s stationary energy
• 6,400 7.5 MW Enercon E-126 turbines
• Wind Region. 2,000 - 3,000 MW
• 270 - 400 turbines
• 23 wind regions across Australia
beyondZEROemissions.org
Renewable electrical energy
100% Renewable Stationary Energy
Bio, Hydro 2%
Wind 40%
Solar 60%
beyondZEROemissions.org
Renewable electrical energy
The National Grid
SKM Review of ZCA2020 transmission
“The review finds that the transmission
scenario proposed is technically feasible in
terms of capacity and reliability. In addition, the
proposed transmission uses mature technology
with proven capability around the world.”
beyondZEROemissions.org
Renewable electrical energy
HVDC High Voltage Direct Current
 Forget the “you can’t
transmit power that
far” mantra
 HVDC has been
developed in the last
decade and has solved
the problem of long
distance transmission
beyondZEROemissions.org
Renewable electrical energy
HVDC
High Voltage Direct Current
 Transmits more power on
a given line
 Doesn’t lose power
through radiation
 Enables different systems
to be interconnected
 Can be used over 1000’s
km rather than 100’s
beyondZEROemissions.org
Renewable electrical energy
Simplified illustration of the
advantage of HVDC over HVAC
AC only at peak voltage for a short time
DC at peak voltage constantly
beyondZEROemissions.org
Renewable electrical energy
HVDC is more
cost effective
over long
distances
AC
DC
1000 km
beyondZEROemissions.org
2000 km
Australia's
energy
grid: Grid
20202020
Australia’srenewable
Renewable
Energy
beyondZEROemissions.org
beyondZEROemissions.org
beyondZEROemissions.org
beyondZEROemissions.org
beyondZEROemissions.org
beyondZEROemissions.org
Renewable electrical energy
Resource Requirements
beyondZEROemissions.org
Getting the job done in 10 years
Manufacturing
Construction
beyondZEROemissions.org
Renewable electrical energy
Enercon Viana Do Costelo Wind Turbine blade and tower
factories Portugal
250 towers per year 600 Blades 400 Jobs
beyondZEROemissions.org
Peak Concentrated Solar ‘roll-out’
600,000 Heliostats
30 concrete towers
beyondZEROemissions.org
Labour Requirements
140 thousand
beyondZEROemissions.org
Renewable electrical energy
Labor Requirements
140 thousand
beyondZEROemissions.org
Achievability: Jobs In Context
140 thousand
beyondZEROemissions.org
Solar Thermal Cost Reduction
beyondZEROemissions.org
Safe Climate: a Bargain at 3% of GDP
beyondZEROemissions.org
Economic Cost over 30 years,electricity
(325TWh/yr)
$Bn
beyondZEROemissions.org
Cost to Economy – all energy, 30 years
beyondZEROemissions.org
beyondZEROemissions.org
Zero Carbon Australia - Conclusion
• Must be done to secure our climate and future
• Technically doable
• ‘Shovel ready’ using off the shelf technologies
• Fully Resourced
• We have the materials
• Jobs rich
• Fully Costed
• 3% of GDP for 10 years
• Saving over 30 years
beyondZEROemissions.org
OUR CHOICE
FOR THE NEXT
30 YEARS
1 m2 mirror
zero emissions
OR
20 tons of coal
72 tonnes CO2
half the jobs
beyondZEROemissions.org
 Share the plan
 Zero Carbon Plan Contributor
Transport
Buildings
Land use
 Public Engagement
 Media team
www.beyondzeroemissions.org
beyondZEROemissions.org
 Become a baseload supporter
 Your donation will go towards designing
& implementing Australia's new
renewable energy future.
 Assist volunteer coordinators
Technical Directors
Media
Administration
www.beyondzeroemissions.org
beyondZEROemissions.org
www.beyondzeroemissions.org
beyondZEROemissions.org
OTHER Sustainable
Energy:
What about PV with hydro storage?
 Cost has dropped dramatically
What about PV with hydro storage?
 Large scale ‘solar farms’ and big roofs more
efficient
Is Pumped Storage
Hydro Power the
answer?
 Pumped Storage Hydro (PSH) is by far the
largest and longest means of storing electrical
energy at this time.
Note:
Log
scales!
 The ROAM report suggests that
about 500 GWh of pumped hydro
could be built in Oz.
 The average Oz (NEM) demand is
about 25 GW
 So this equates to around 20 hours
of storage.
 The cost is estimated at below
$1000 per MWh (ie. $1 per kWh) and
could be much less.
Blank
 Text
Blank
Australian Sustainable
Energy by the numbers
Peter Seligman
(MEI)
Nullarbor pumped seawater electricity
storage
Bunda cliffs
From Google Earth
200 GWh battery
Okinawa pumped seawater electricity
storage
“The rules by which
energy is regulated
were written to
favour the most
poisonous,
destructive and
addictive fuels from
hell, rather than
cheap, clean, green,
safe, abundant and
patriotic fuels from
heaven”
“We need to reverse that dynamic, it’s in our national interest to
do so – of Australia and the US. It’s in the global interest of
humanity to do so.”
Wind farms
Text or pic box
2 content
NB: $100/MWh = 10cents/kWh
Large scale Solar PV
Text or pic box
2 content
Concentrated Solar Thermal
Text or pic box
Simulations of scenarios with 100% renewable electricity in the Australian
National Electricity Market
Ben Elliston, Mark Diesendorf, Iain MacGill,

(1) Wind: existing wind farm output scaled to 23.2 GW

(2) PV (14.6 GW total):

* Adelaide (1.3 GW)

* Canberra (0.4 GW)

* Melbourne (4.5 GW)

* Brisbane and greater area (3.3 GW)

* Sydney (5.1 GW)

(3) CST (2.6 GW per site, 15.6 GW total):

* Tibooburra, New South Wales

* White Cliffs, New South Wales

* Longreach, Queensland

* Roma, Queensland

* Nullarbor, South Australia

* Woomera, South Australia

(4) Pumped storage hydro (2.2 GW)

(5) Hydro without pumped storage (4.9 GW)

(6) Gas turbines, biofuelled (24.0 GW)
Simulations of scenarios with 100% renewable electricity in the Australian
National Electricity Market
Ben Elliston, Mark Diesendorf, Iain MacGill,
Simulations of scenarios with 100% renewable electricity in the Australian
National Electricity Market
Ben Elliston, Mark Diesendorf, Iain MacGill,