Transcript 28 NOVEMBER 2011 SUSTAINABLE WATER MANAGEMENT PLAN TASK 1 – DETAILED WORK PLAN.
SUSTAINABLE WATER MANAGEMENT PLAN TASK 1 – DETAILED WORK PLAN
OUR TEAM DR. ARIS GEORGAKAKOS Modeling KRISTIN ROWLES & JIM HAWKINS Facilitation TEAM RESOURCES Robert Osborne, P.E.
Les Lampe, P.E., Ph.D.
Pam Kenel, P.E.
STEVE SIMPSON Project Manager Bob Moresi, P.E.
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23 January 2011 TASKS 1. Work Plan 2. Problem Definition/Performance Indicators 3. Tailoring of Models to Indicators 4. Data and Information 5. Development of Water Management Alternatives 6. Conduct Iterative Basin Assessments 7. Seek Consensus 8. Report and Study Dissemination NOV DEC JAN 2011 FEB MAR APR MAY JUN JUL AUG SEP OCT NOV DEC 2012 3
16 March 2011 1. DEVELOP A WORKPLAN
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Project Initiation Meeting Held November 28 in Albany.
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Presentation at ACFS Board Meeting in Albany TODAY
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Conference call to review draft Work Plan outline the week of December 19
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Completion of IFLLA Data Review on December 31
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Meeting to review revised draft Work Plan the week of January 16
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Completion of ACFS Work Plan on January 30 4
23 NOV 2011 2. PROBLEM DEFINITION/PERFORMANCE INDICATORS 5
3. TAILORING OF MODELS TO INDICATORS
GCM Scenarios Bias Correction Downscaling
Develop consistent rainfall, temperature, PET sequences.
23 NOV 2011
• • • OBS Cells (~12 x 12 km 2 ): Monthly & Daily 1950-1999 (50 Years); Temperature, Precipitation • • • GCM Cells (~250 x 250 km 2 ): Monthly & Few Daily A1B: 2001-2100; (100 Years) A2: 2001-2100; (100 Years)
Watershed Hydrology
Simulate soil moisture, ET, runoff, unimpaired flows, etc.
Population, Land Use, and Demand Forecasts River Basin/Watershed Assessment and Planning
Water Supply Lake Levels/Recreation Hydropower Environ. Flows, Ecology, …
Lake Lanier 105MW
Norcross Morgan Falls
16.8 MW
Atlanta Columbus Range: 1035-1085 (ft) 37.8 - 111.3 (bcf) Whitesburg
82 MW
West Point Bartletts Ferry Goat Rock Oliver N. Highlands Griffin Range: 620 - 640(ft) 13 - 32.4 (bcf) Montezuma
173 MW 26.3 MW 60 MW 29.6 MW
Albany
W. George 168 MW
Range: 184 - 190 (ft) 30 - 40.7 (bcf) Newton Bainbridge Andrews
Woodruff 36 MW
Chattahoochee Range: 73 - 77.9 (ft) 10.4 - 17.6 (bcf) Blountstown Sumatra
Legend
Reg. Reservoir Runoff Reservoir Control Point Local Inflow Withdrawal
Risks/Vulnerabilities/ Benefits/Tradeoffs Development Options Management Polices Mitigation Measures Stakeholder Processes 6
4. DATA AND INFORMATION GATHERING
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Instream Flows and Lake Levels Assessment (IFFLA) data review
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Flow Data including Unimpaired flows
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Water Demands 7
5. DEVELOPMENT OF WATER MANAGEMENT ALTERNATIVES
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Start from Data Needs Sustainability Workgroup Performance Measures
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Identify and Screen Alternative Management Alternatives
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Document Alternatives in Template
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Input Alternatives in Iterative Modeling 23 NOV 2011 8
6. CONDUCT ITERATIVE MODELING
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Progressive comparative analysis of ACF system to develop understanding of model sensitivity
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Present model outputs in graphical formats
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Iterative model runs to reflect multiple scenarios for comparison 23 NOV 2011 9
7. SEEK CONSENSUS ON ONE OR MORE MANAGEMENT ALTERNATIVES
DYNAMICS OF PARTICIPATORY DECISION MAKING 23 NOV 2011 START Familiar Options Diverse Perspectives Competing Frames of Reference Shared Understanding Inclusive Alterations Synthesis CONSENSUS Modeling of Scenarios Against Performance Criteria TIME
Adapted from the Facilitator’s Guide to Participatory Decision-Making
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23 NOV 2011
8. REPORT AND STUDY DISSEMINATION
TECHNICAL MEMORANDA & REPORT Task 1 – Work Plan Task 6 – Model Output Summary TM Task 2 –Performance Objectives TM Task 3 – Modeling Plan TM Task 7 – Management Alternatives Selection/ Recommendation TM Task 4 – IFLLA Literature Review, Flow Data and Water Demand TM Task 8 – Sustainable Water Management Plan Task 5 –Water Management Alternatives TM 11
SUSTAINABLE WATER MANAGEMENT PLAN TASK 1 – DETAILED WORK PLAN
MODELING SCENARIO PROGRESSION
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Unimpaired Baseline Baseline with construction of reservoirs Baseline with RIOP operation of reservoirs RIOP operation of reservoirs AND current water demands and discharges 5.
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Alternative Scenarios (iterative)
Operational Rules 2.
Scenarios
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