Inside

Study to Evaluate the Cost-effectiveness of NEDO Projects

Analysis of NEDO Inside Products Survey

Sayaka Shishido, Masaru Yamashita, Yoshiko Yurugi and Mitsuru Takeshita Evaluation Department

New Energy and Industrial Technology Development Organization

Introduction to NEDO Inside Products

NEDO inside products are defined as products that incorporate core technologies developed through NEDO project results. R&D Pioneer in market creation

●

Taking the lead in the creation of new markets Demonstration projects N E D

Government funding

O Strengthening global competitiveness

●

Achieving competitive advantages through world-leading technologies Improving technology in a wide range of sectors

●

Supporting technological innovation across a wide range of industries through basic technology development

Management, evaluation and selection by NEDO

Addressing social issues

●

Addressing social issues through new technology development

Overview of NEDO Inside Product Research

Purpose: Estimate economic effect and social benefits of NEDO projects Target: *Most recent annual sales: More than $1.25 billion *Sales between $250 million and $1.25 billion *Low sales, but significant social benefit Summary of economic effect and social benefit: ①

Economic effect:

Project budget, most recent annual sales, accumulated sales over the past five years, sales forecast between FY2011–FY2020 ②

Social benefit:

CO 2 reduction effect, ripple effects, employment growth, etc.

Data basis: Questionnaire completed by companies (Tentatively NEDO’s contributing rate is 100%.) Official data: ① Economic organizations ② Public institutions, private research institutes ③ In cases of insufficient data, supplemental estimates were calculated using the data above Sales calculations: 1) Average cost of project (FY): (total cost for a project implementation period) (project period) 2) Most recent FY sales (FY2010): (aggregate sales over the past five years for the target product) (five years) or (single year sales amounts for products with only single year sales estimates) 3)Total future sales forecast ： cumulative sales from FY2011 – FY2020 based on FY2020 sales forecasts

NEDO インサイド製品が、我が国の環境・エネルギー問題解決に貢献！ Energy Issues

440 mega tons CO 2 /10 years

(FY2011–FY2020)

Energy saving effect (crude oil equivalent) 35 billion gallons/10 years

(FY2011–FY2020) Wind power Eco-friendly cement Waste power generation Solar power

High-efficiency

Hybrid shovels CFC reduction technology

Lithium-ion batteries for EVs and PHEVs industrial furnaces Low-emission diesel cars

Residential fuel cells Industrial heat pumps Thermal storage air conditioning systems

Water treatment plants

Sulfur-free light oil

Residential heat pumps

High-speed copy machines

Thermal insulation

Sales Performance and Forecasts for NEDO Inside Products

NEDO budget outlay Sales performance

*$1=80yen

Project costs Accumulated project costs Most recent sales

Unit: million $ Cost/year project period Cost/year

Accumulate d sales over the last five years Photovoltaic power Wind power Gas turbines Residential HP hot water supply systems Residential fuel cell Blu-ray Water treatment High-efficiency industrial furnaces Low-emission diesel cars MEMS Fine ceramics Other Total

73 5 44 15 61 15 24 14 8 16 6 2,169 106 665 193 1,100 76 148 100 53 313 154 2,131 7,208 19,808 3,299 3,214 4,250 150 6,353 465 30 94 476 131 11,528 49,798 58,053 9,125 14,873 20,000 375 18,125 1,650 446 706 1,526 131 49,455 174,465

Accumulated sales forecast (2011–2020 )

311,691 51,341 50,125 48,125 14,546 64,423 7,475 1,329 2,875 pioneer in market creation Strengthening global competitiveness 8,349 13,125 252,004 825,408 Improving technology across a wide range of sectors

Cost Effectiveness & Employment Growth Effect

・

Sales forecast (FY2011–FY2020): $825 billion

Cost effectiveness:

○ NEDO’s budget for 50 products is about

$7.2 billion.

○

Corporate income tax is about

$12.3 billion.

＝ $825 billion X 3.66% (pretax profit rate*) X 40.69% (effective corporate income tax rate)

* Based on the Ministry of Finance’s Business and Investment Survey of Incorporated Enterprises.

Employment effect: Employment growth between 107,000 and 177,000 per year

○ $49 billion (FY2010 sales) X 13.38%* (ratio of personnel expenses to sales) ÷ $64,000 (average employee compensation) = ○

107,000 employees in FY2011

$825 billion (FY2011–FY2020 sales) X 13.38% (ratio of personnel expenses to sales) ÷ $64,000 (average employee compensation) =

1.77 million employees between FY2011-FY2020

* Ratio of personnel expenses to sales is based on the Ministry of Finance’s Business and Investment Survey of Incorporated Enterprises and average employee compensation is based on the National Tax Agency’s Pay for Private-sector Employees Survey.

CO 2 reduction effect: 12 products contribute to the reduction of CO 2 emissions

⇒ CO 2 reduction effect is

440 megatons

(FY2012–FY2020) Energy saving effect (crude oil equivalent) is

35 billion gallons

/10 years (FY2011 – FY2020)

Pioneer in Market Creation

Residential heat pump hot water supply system Building up basic knowledge was the starting point for developing energy-saving technologies Identifying new uses for heat pumps and development of multi-purpose practical applications, including compact and cold climate heat pumps.

FY1984–FY2007 $193 million Overview:

・

NEDO developed basic heat pump

・

technologies from system not only CO2 use.

1984 , like mechanisms for whole heat pump Private companies developed a residential-use heat pump.

NEDO support to develop multi-purpose heat pumps, including high-efficiency, compact and cold climate heat pumps.

成熟 売 上 （ 格 販 売 数 ） 開発開始 上市 Current status 2020 時間経過 Project Environmental effect Total

CO₂ reductions

are estimated to be

42 mega tons heat pump sales reach 10 million by FY2020.

(FY2011 – 2020 )if

total

Creation of markets through NEDO projects Residential heat pump system Forecast for heat pump market in Japan ・ The introduction of heat pumps has accelerated since FY2007 due to the increase of all-electric homes and price reductions ・ The heat pumps are designed for residential use as well as industrial use.

Derivative effect Knowledge sharing NEDO Project Practical use of heat pump systems

Research on high-efficiency compressors and high-efficiency power recovery equipment Research on air heat exchanger

Capital investment

Research on compact performance gas coolers high-

8

Strengthening Global Competitiveness

Die Bonding Film Accelerating development of practical application through collaborative R&D of

mechanisms between industry and academia.

Basic technology makes possible synthesis of materials suitable for requisite properties FY2001–FY2007: $75million

Overview:

・ Achievement of reduced thickness, and improved flexibility and adhesiveness simultaneously by

controlling polymer structures at nano levels.

・

Contributed to size reductions and improved functionality of latest electronic devices such as smartphones, tablets, etc.

成熟 売 上 （ 格 販 売 数 ） 開発開始 NEDO projects 2020 上市 Current status 時間経過 Contributed to enhancing Japan’s competitiveness in semiconductor materials field Presence of Japanese companies: Sales: $127 million/year; greater than 50% market share; achieved de facto standardization HS Series

Example

（

Stacked MCP

） Products using die bonding film Film properties: Ultra-thin film (10 μm) with strong bonding properties (peeling strength 1.0 kN/m between 60-90 ° angles)

Effects

Environment: Energy-saving as SSD’s consume lower amounts of electricity than HDD’s.

Technology: Streamlined manufacturing processes （ multiple processes streamlined to one bonding film process only) Technology development: Development of phase separation control and analysis light sealants.

9

Improving Technology in a Wide Range of Areas

Micro Electro Mechanical Systems (MEMS)

Japan is a global leader in micro machining technology as a result of R&D spanning over 20 years .

Accumulation of basic technologies Development of multi-purpose applications through crossover activities among different fields FY1991–FY2012: $319 million

Overview:

・

R&D on MEMS started in the late 1980’s.

Japan launched a large-scale ten year national project in 1991 to build a technological base for MEMS.

・

R&D has been accelerated recently to develop applications in multiple fields.

Achievement of high-performance, lightweight devices through micro machining technology What is MEMS?

MEMS is a micro-mechatronics systems

using semiconductor processing consisting of miniaturized sensors, actuators, electronic circuits integrated onto chips.

1000 900 800 700

Market growth

600 500 400 300 200

38 billion yen

100 0 2010年 2012年 2014年 2016年

99 billion yen

2018年 2020年 売 上 （ 格 販 売 数 ） 開発開始 上市 NEDO projects 成熟 2020 Current status 時間経過 Development of multi-purpose uses Cars Electronic devices

engine mirror tire air bag navigation system

Manufacturing

Addressing Social Issues

High-efficiency Furnaces NEDO supports the dissemination and promotion of eco-friendly industrial furnaces FY1993-FY1999: $102 million

Overview:

・ Achievement of more than

30% energy saving

, reductions in NOx and size ・ Adopted by steel and aluminum industrials ; accounted for more than 1/3 of industrial furnace market in 2005 ・ Project consortium composed of

13 companies

from the same industry ・ Development of multi-purpose technologies using

simulations and databases

; heat recovery has nearly reached theoretical limits.

・

Field tests conducted at 167 locations

contributing to market growth.

成熟 売 上 （ 格 販 売 数 ） 開発開始 上市 Current status 2020 時間経過 NEDO projects Development of eco-friendly industrial furnaces フィールドテスト 事業で導入加速 Furnace cross-section Environmental effect

CO 2 reduction effect: 16 million t-CO 2 /10 years

11

NEDO Inside Product Stars!

★

1. Solar power Wind power

★ ★★ ・

new energy

・

1981 8. Blue-ray

★★ ・

new media

・

1998 10. Residential fuel cells

★ ・

cogeneration

・

1992 Pioneer in market creation Strengthening global competitiveness Improving technology Addressing social issues 2. Gas turbines

★ ★★ ・

high-efficiency

・

1980 9. Die bonding films

★★ ・

streamlining

・

2001 7. High density devices (HDD)

★ ・

new markets

・

1995 3. Residential heat pump system

★ ★★ ・

heat pumps

・

1984 5.Reduction of CFCs

★★ ・

address global warming

・

1996 4. Nano-ion products

★ ★★ ・

healthy living, eco-friendly

・

2001 6. Furnaces

★ ・

energy saving

・

1993 13. EV batteries

★ ★★ ・

load leveling

・

1992 11. Fine ceramics

★★ ・

new materials

・

1981 12. MEMS

★ ★★ ・

multi-purpose

・

1991 14. Water supply (MBR,UASB)

★★

global business

・

1997

Future outlook

Challenges ・ More than half of NEDO inside products are viewed as ”addressing social issues” and should not be evaluated in terms of economic profitability only.

→ In particular,

as NEDO’s mission is to address energy and global environmental problem,

we need to carefully consider in-depth

evaluation methods

for these products.

・ As the number of materials and components in the supply chain increases, it become more difficult to calculate the value of each unit. ・ NEDO not only supports individual companies, but also aims to improve Japan’s technological strength, therefore we should conduct evaluations in terms of value added to

Japan’s technology base.

・ We should implement evaluation methods based not only economical viability and energy efficiency but also include benchmarks such as reductions in environmental burdens (e.g., hazardous materials), and improvements in user-friendliness, quality of life, levels of happiness, etc.

・ Basic and infrastructure technology development is expected to become broader and we are striving to develop evaluation methods that are compatible with such change. Currently, we are examining interview methods related to combustion and polymer chemistry.

Thank you!

（以下、参考）

「NEDOインサイド製品」 50製品リスト

＜市場創出の先駆者＞ 製品名 太陽光発電 ブルーレイディスク関連 家庭用ヒートポンプ 風力発電 家庭用燃料電池 移動体用蓄電池 ロボット（清掃用、産業用等） ガスタービン ロボット（警備用等） ＜国際競争力のブースター＞ 製品名 ハードディスクドライブ 電子材料フィルム エキシマレーザー半導体装置 大型 CAT-CVD 装置 不揮発性の半導体メモリ 積層 DRAM （ Dynamic Random Access Memory ） パワー半導体材料（SiC,GaN等） 宇宙用蓄電池 液晶ディスプレイ用偏光フィルム 電気二重層キャパシタ ＜幅広い分野の底上げ＞ 製品名 高機能・信頼性サーバ 樹脂部品用接着剤 金属ガラス 光触媒 高性能セラミックス MEMS 分野 環境・エネルギー 安全・安心・快適 環境・エネルギー 環境・エネルギー 環境・エネルギー 環境・エネルギー/産業競争力 安全・安心・快適/産業競争力 環境・エネルギー 安全・安心・快適/産業競争力 分野 産業競争力 産業競争力 産業競争力 産業競争力 産業競争力 産業競争力 産業競争力 産業競争力 産業競争力 産業競争力 分野 安全・安心・快適 産業競争力 安全・安心・快適 安全・安心・快適 産業競争力 産業競争力 ＜社会的な課題解決への貢献＞ 製品名 廃棄物発電 高性能工業炉 ナノイー応用製品 4次元X線CT診断装置 排ガス後処理システム（尿素SCR システム） 低公害ハイブリッドディーゼル車 分野 環境・エネルギー 環境・エネルギー 安全・安心・快適 安全・安心・快適 安全・安心・快適 バイオ研究用顕微鏡 環境・エネルギー 安全・安心・快適 高効率嫌気性生物処理(UASB等) 環境・エネルギー 活性汚泥法（MBR）用膜ユニット エコセメント 電子材料用絶縁材料 環境・エネルギー 環境・エネルギー 安全・安心・快適 液中燃焼法によるフロン破壊 産業用ヒートポンプ 真空断熱材 高速デジタル複写機 サルファーフリー軽油 冷熱蓄熱システム 省エネ型建機 短下肢装具 アスベスト代替ガスケット 半導体製造用クリーニングガス 肝炎等診断システム 糖鎖微量迅速解析システム ノンVOC塗装システム ホームITシステム 環境・エネルギー 環境・エネルギー 環境・エネルギー 環境・エネルギー 環境・エネルギー 環境・エネルギー 環境・エネルギー 安全・安心・快適 安全・安心・快適 安全・安心・快適 安全・安心・快適 安全・安心・快適 安全・安心・快適 安全・安心・快適 16

将来累積売上予測の計算方法

成熟 売 上 （ 格 凡例： ：今後 10 年間固定軸 販 売 数 ） 開発開始 上市 NEDO プロジェクト A 時間経過（伸縮可変） Ｘ Ｂ Ｃ Z Ｄ Ｅ