Transcript Document
MLW1 – Systems Thinking for Foresight
Systemic Foresight Methodology
Ozcan Saritas
Dr. Ozcan Saritas
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Sept 24, 2009 Bucharest
MLW1 – Systems Thinking for Foresight
Presentation Outline
Evolution of the Foresight practice Changing nature of situations & increasing complexity Challenges for Foresight Need for Systemic Foresight approaches – with the introduction of the ideas of systems thinking
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Sept 24, 2009 Bucharest
MLW1 – Systems Thinking for Foresight
early foresight - pre ’60s
The existence of human on the earth surface:
anticipation as an unavoidable human characteristic The act of
16 th to 18 th centuries:
To improve decision making and public debate and to anticipate long-term trends and long term implications of short-term decisions. Wide scope & wide array of issues due to increasing complexity of societies
19 th century:
The future of capitalist economies by classical political economists. Following the industrial revolution: Fragmentation of social studies - more focused and short term orientation of social sciences
‘50s:
The principles of trend extrapolation and social indicators, and the methods of expert analysis (e.g. Delphi & cross-impact) were established. First computer simulation studies were becoming well-known
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MLW1 – Systems Thinking for Foresight
Institutional Foresight - ’60s to present
‘60s:
probabilistic assessment of what is likely to happen in the future Narrowly focused forecasting activities – the
‘70s:
Change in the understanding of forecasting due to increasing complexity and uncertainty of societies and economies (e.g. unpredicted oil shocks in the ‘70s)
‘80s:
Multiple futures thinking, participatory activities, where both processes (i.e. networks, tacit outcomes) and products (i.e. codified outputs) were given emphasis
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MLW1 – Systems Thinking for Foresight
Foresight - ’90s
Foresight for S&T policy making by government, industry and other organisations The key elements of Foresight in the 1990s: – S&T is central focus – Systematic process – Longer timeframe than in existing S&T planning – S&T in relation to economic and social developments “Foresight is the process involved in systematically attempting
to look into the longer term future of science, technology, the economy, and society with the aim of identifying areas of strategic research and the emerging new technologies likely to
yield the greatest economic and social benefits” (Martin, 1995).
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MLW1 – Systems Thinking for Foresight
Foresight - 2000s
Change in the S&T dominated appearance with increasing concerns on social aspects due to: • The increasing importance of innovation (both technological and organisational) • The development of service economies. Considerable portions of economic activity, employment and output have started taking place in service sectors of the economy • Other developments including globalisation, changes in demographic structures and in cultural practices, and environmental affairs • Recognition of the close relationship between S&T
and society Ozcan Saritas
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MLW1 – Systems Thinking for Foresight
Five essential elements of Foresight
– “the application of ‘systematic’,
‘participatory’, ‘future-intelligence-
gathering and medium-to-long-term
vision building process’ to ‘informing present-day decisions and mobilising joint actions’”
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Miles and Keenan (2002) Sept 24, 2009 Bucharest
MLW1 – Systems Thinking for Foresight
Foresight – 2010s? Policy contexts and challenges
The new global context Increased financial, trade and investment flows Rapid and accelerating technological progress; ICTs, biotechnology, fuel cells, nanotechnologies New international regulations and standards on trade, quality, labor, environment, intellectual property rights New systems to design, produce, distribute, and manage products and services Global value chains and production networks
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MLW1 – Systems Thinking for Foresight Ozcan Saritas
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MLW1 – Systems Thinking for Foresight
Shift from government to governance
Shift from ‘government’ to ‘governance’ and thus a new ‘regulatory’ state – Inclusiveness and equity through freedom of association and expression, and an organised civil society with full protection of human rights – Democratic society influencing, restraining or blocking policy design and implementation – Contributions from society, firms, institutions, and associations to enhance public policy within a new normative and legal framework – Effectiveness and efficiency in meeting society’s expectations and sustainable use of resources The quest for new forms of governance is structured around three pillars
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MLW1 – Systems Thinking for Foresight
New Foresight landscape
Ozcan Saritas
Foresight
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MLW1 – Systems Thinking for Foresight Ozcan Saritas
Foresight
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MLW1 – Systems Thinking for Foresight Ozcan Saritas
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MLW1 – Systems Thinking for Foresight
Health and social services system
Understanding of the interdependencies and dynamics of the health and social services system
Interdependency of sub-systems in the welfare system Ozcan Saritas
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MLW1 – Systems Thinking for Foresight Ozcan Saritas
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MLW1 – Systems Thinking for Foresight
Implications for Foresight practice
Nature of situations have become more complex and uncertain Traditional method-driven “systematic” Foresight practice is not sufficient to deal with these situations Introduction of thought experiments for understanding, appreciation and modelling Need for “Systemic Foresight” approaches
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MLW1 – Systems Thinking for Foresight
System
System – “A set of elements connected together which form a
whole, this showing the properties which are properties of the whole, rather than properties of its
component parts” (Checkland, 1981, p.4).
Systems Thinking: Viewing ‘events’ as a system and/or part of larger systems
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MLW1 – Systems Thinking for Foresight
Causality
• The effect of one or more system elements on the properties or on the behaviour of the other(s) • Due to interrelatedness and interdependency between system elements, systems have some characteristics or behavioural patterns that cannot be exhibited by any of its subsets
Holism
• The whole is more than the sum of its parts • The parts cannot be considered in isolation from the whole • The behaviour of the system cannot be understood independent from its context
Hierarchy
• The grouping or arrangement of systems according to their higher and lower influence and coverage levels (e.g. upper level systems and sub systems or nested systems). • Systems exist as parts of larger wholes, while they themselves provide organisation to their own sub-systems
Continuity
• Systems transform themselves continuously and therefore are dynamic • This explains an iterative, dynamic and non-linear process • Two types of continuity (i) Continuity of looped action sequence (ii) The recursion of the looped action sequence in time
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MLW1 – Systems Thinking for Foresight
Thought experiments
Systemic Foresight Methodology Ozcan Saritas
Systemic understanding
– Creates shared understanding and mutual appreciation of issues at hand
Systems synthesis and modelling
– The input from scanning is synthesised into conceptual models of the situations involved in the real world
Systemic analysis and Selection
– Analyses the alternative models of the future and ‘prioritises’ them, through intensive negotiations among system actors and stakeholders, to create an agreed model of the future
System transformation
– Establishes the relationship between the future and the present for a change programme 19
Systemic action
– Creates plans to inform present day decisions for immediate change to provide structural
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and behavioural transformations
MLW1 – Systems Thinking for Foresight
Understanding context, content & process of Foresight
Social system Technological system Economic system Ecological system Political system Values Ozcan Saritas
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MLW1 – Systems Thinking for Foresight Ozcan Saritas Technology & Economics
Questions for SFM
What is feasible?
Science & Ecology
What is possible?
Systemic Foresight
Socioeconomics Politics & Values
What is desirable?
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MLW1 – Systems Thinking for Foresight
Conclusions
Foresight practice has moved from being ‘systematic’ to ‘systemic’ Systemic Foresight Methodology (SFM) concerns ‘situations’, which is characterised by sets of events that may be that may be coincident or serial or both that create a situation not a problem Provides greater awareness and understanding and appreciation of complex Social, Technological, Economic, Ecological, Political and Value (STEEPV) systems SFM involves a ‘soft process of inquiry’ , which is characterised by subjective opinion SFM meets expectations for inclusivity, transparency and involvement
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MLW1 – Systems Thinking for Foresight
End of presentation..
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Dr. Ozcan Saritas
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