Transcript Applying Foresight Methodology to the Romanian Higher

Presenters:
Irina Bujor, Bucharest, Romania
Campbell Warden, Tenerife, Spain
Authors:
Irina Bujor
Ozcan Saritas
Campbell Warden
Applying Foresight Methodology to the
Romanian Higher Education System
Workshop: Innovation management
Zagreb, Croatia – May 2011
Technology Foresight methods
« TF »
• Definitions
• Uses
• Methods
What is TF?
TF consists of an organised collection of
activities making up an exercise with the
following characteristics:
1. - an open and collective process of
purposeful, future oriented exploration;
What is TF?
2. - it involves deliberation between
heterogeneous actors in science and
technology arenas;
3. - it has the objective of formulating shared
visions and strategies that take better
account of future opportunities and
threats (ForeIntegra-RI, 2007).
A more flexible definition...
“The foresight process involves intense iterative
periods of open reflection, networking,
consultation and discussion, leading to the
joint refining of future visions
and the
common ownership of strategies,
with the aim of exploiting long term
opportunities opened up through the impact of
science, technology and innovation on society...
A more abstract definition...
“The discovery of a common space for open
thinking on the future
and the
incubation of strategic approaches..."
(Jennifer Cassingena-Harper,
Malta Council for Science and Technology)
Please note
!
The stress placed upon the way in which
foresight activities are linked to the joint
formulation and ownership of strategies.
!
This perspective avoids the treatment of
foresight and its implementation as separate
processes, without serious attempts to build
bridges between the two.
Foresight does not seek to predict:
• it is a process that seeks to create shared
visions of the future, visions that stakeholders
are willing to endorse by the actions they
choose to take today.
• foresight is focused on influencing the
development of the future.
Attributes of TF
• Foresight considers multiple futures, which
may include possible, plausible and desirable
futures;
• Foresight is an action-oriented activity;
• Foresight is a participative activity.
The important thing to note is that TF does not
replace forecasting, futures studies, or strategic
planning. Each activity has its role, which in many
instances can be mutually supportive.
Some goals for TF are:
Exploring future opportunities so as to
set priorities for investment in science
and innovation activities:
The degree to which priorities can emerge
from foresight varies from "critical technologies”
exercises, where the whole discourse is focussed
on a priority list, through more general
programmes from which priorities are derived, to
targeted foresight where the priorities are in
effect set before foresight begins.
Some goals for TF are:
Reorienting the Science & Innovation
System:
This goal is related to priority
setting but goes further. In such
cases, there may have been a
preliminary diagnosis that the
science and innovation system does
not match the needs of the country.
The situation in Croatia
This was a common perception in parts of
Central and Eastern Europe in the immediate
post-Communist period when, apart from
severe resource difficulties, capabilities reflected
an industrial system that no longer existed.
What do you think?
Applying TF to real life…
In this context it has been proposed that
Foresight can be used as a tool
to re-orientate away from some fields and towards
others, as well as to explore new institutional
structures.
Which institutional structures do you think
should be revised and developed in Croatia?
Some goals for TF are:
Demonstrating the vitality of the
Science and Innovation System:
In this context foresight becomes a
"shop window" to demonstrate the
technological opportunities that are
available and to assess the capability
of science and industry to fulfil that
promise.
Have new science and industry
capabilities been developed recently
in Croatia?
• Which ones?
• How?
• Have lessons been learned that could be
applied to other fields?
• What will be the future engines of innovation
and social development here?
Some goals for TF are:
Bringing new actors into the strategic
debate:
A growing tendency is the use of
foresight as an instrument to broaden
the range of actors engaged in science
and innovation policy.
One example is the inclusion of
social stakeholders, sections of the
general public and University students.
Some goals for TF are:
Building new networks and linkages
across fields, sectors & markets or
around problems:
A different type of reorientation is
sought when foresight is explicitly
aimed at creating new networks
and/or clusters that break out of longstanding disciplinary or sectoral silos.
Foresight (future studies)
In futures studies the term "foresight" has become
widely used to describe activities such as:
• critical thinking concerning long-term developments
• debate and efforts to create wider participatory
democracy
• shaping the future, especially by influencing public
policy.
Foresight
Participatory method
Stakeholders
Who are the stakeholders?
Stakeholders
– “any group or individual who can affect or is affected by
the achievement of the organization’s objectives”
(Freeman, 1984)
– “individuals or groups that are, or perceive themselves as
being, affected by or interested in the decision-making on
a certain issue”
(van der Kerkhof, 2001)
Participation and communication
in the Foresight landscape
Saritas et al. (2008)
Mobilization of stakeholders
Context and Rationale
The Romanian educational system
has faced many challenges and reforms
over the past 20 years.
Key focus points:
- The purpose of Higher Education is
“learning how to learn”;
- Opening up the Romanian Higher
Education to: foreign staff, private
investment
= Internationalization.
Context and Rationale
-Public sector funding across Europe will
be strained due to the ageing population and
the debt incurred leading up to the financial
crisis;
The University system by 2025 will be
very different from 2010!
- Universities and business will need to
collaborate to deliver learning.
- The anticipated decline in the Romanian
population to 2025;
Context and Rationale
- The evolution of e-learning
-> electronic delivery of HE;
- Students will need:
-> better information and access,
-> to be more focused
-> become assertive,
-> learn to personalize their own
education paths.
The Main Methods of the
Consultation Process
The process of building a vision involves creating a
sustainable dialogue
between the main actors in the system and
developing a cluster of associated policies
in higher education.
The main methods used for the community consolidation are:
• Viral questionnaire of nominalization-co
nominalization;
• Brainstorming sessions;
• Scanning literature;
• Analysis of current state;
• Analysis of drivers of change;
• Developing scenarios;
• Delphi consultation.
Understanding scenarios
= Plausible hypotheses about
the ways in which external forces can
evolve to impact us.
 Capturing opportunities, future
conditions, threats and obstacles
which we cannot influence.
 Shows us all the possible
milestones and shortcuts
encountered on our way to achieving
a specific goal.
Scenario Difficulties
• The instability of the current education regulatory
system (and educational policies);
• Reluctance to change, lack of incentives (universities,
individuals and companies);
• Poor cooperation between the universities and
industry;
• Inadequate school education prior to university
studies;
• A non-consistent qualification system with respect to
labor force demands.
Conclusions
• Activation of the policy community at the level of
Romanian higher education, but at the same time
generating a new dynamic within this community.
• In order to encourage the maintenance of the
dialogue, a series of complementary elements were
developed, which contribute to preserving the
interest at the level of the community:
- the FORwiki platform
- a guide on foresight at university level
- the Observatory for Higher Education
Conclusions
• Contribution to the development of the community
of associated policies through increasing the visibility
of community members, identifying the problems,
making explicit the policy paradigm, ensuring the
space for dialogue, and even creating the premises
for continuing this dialogue beyond the consultation
period.
• This ongoing project has encountered several types
of constraints and limitations, some of them
epistemic in nature and some of a more practical
sort, and they will pose as a threat to the
implementation of the project results.
Thank you for your
attention!