Transcript Jack Smith's presentation

Vignettes – Foresight
Glimpses on Selected
Dimensions of Prospective,
Nano Futures
Jack Smith,
Director S&T Foresight
CRN World Care Conference
September 11, 2007
Office of the National Science Advisor
Bureau du Conseiller national des sciences
Foresight Disclaimer
• Foresight is a collaborative, sharing and challenging
exercise;
• It involves diverse individuals and organizations doing
forward research together in search of better preparedness
for surprise;
• Nobody owns foresight outputs except those that actually
participated;
• This presentation does not represent Canadian government
policy, nor the views of the National Science Advisor of
Canada
• The presenter is representing his own expertise and
reporting upon the insights of those who have joined him in
exploring the uncertainties associated with foresight
Current Mindsets are
(Quite) Often Limited
• Heavier than air flying machines are impossible Lord Kelvin, President Royal Society 1882
• The horse is here to stay, the automobile is a novelty Bank Manager to Henry Ford 1908
• There is no likelihood man can ever tap the power of
the atom - Robert Milliken, Nobel Prize in Physics
1923
• Who the hell wants to hear actors talk? - Henry
Warner, Film Producer 1927
• There is a world market for about five computers Thomas Watson IBM 1943
• We don’t like their sound, and guitar music is on the
way out - President Decca Records, rejecting the
Beatles 1962
Brockman’s List:
The Next 50 Years
1.
2.
3.
4.
5.
6.
7.
Cybersphere: information beams, portable teleconnection & ubiquitous smart networks;
Bio-engineering & bio-robotics, astro-biology,
personal genomics & embryo simulation,
artificial life models;
Quantum math & computing, teleportation,
computational and emergent complexity;
Search for ETI and biophilic universes;
Neuro-sentience & convergent cognition,
computational pharmacology,neuroregeneration
Sub-terranean thermophilogy & Triphibious
flexible transport
Nano-structural products, sensors, materials,
fabrication and molecular tailoring
Business 2.0 List
1.
2.
3.
4.
5.
6.
7.
8.
Bio-interactive Materials - small sensing devices reside
on or inside people, animals, and crops
Bio-fuel Production Plants - ethanol, methanol, biodiesel, eliminating dependence on foreign oil
Bionics - the next-generation of sophisticated
prosthetic limbs or even artificial organs
Cognitronics - to link the brain directly to computers
Genotyping - making the connection between DNA and
specific physical attributes; i.e. longevity, disease.
Combinatorial Science - algorithms and computing to
develop hypotheses by observing large amounts of
data.
Molecular Manufacturing - the building of complex
atomic structures one atom at a time
Quantum Nucleonics - tapping the energy of the atom
for energy
Fraunhofer-Germany
Long Term Tech List
1. Smart Environments – micro components, smart sensors, cyber bots;
2. Man-Machine Cooperation – intuitive brain-computer links;
3. Polytronics – plastics in displays, energy systems and virtual environments;
4. Digital Medicine - imaging, simulations, medications via genomics, proteomics;
5. Digital Logistics - automated commerce - transactions, storages, fleets;
6. Integrated Production – digital mass customized and virtual, flexible products;
7. Adaptive Structures – piezo-ceramics to dampen vibration, noise, save energy;
8. Photonics Enablers- universal light controls: medicine, electronics, materials;
9. Nano-Ultra-Violet – extreme ultaviolet nano-processing radiation applications;
10.Simulation and Modelling - of everything – quantum & grid computing power;
11.Customized Energy – distributed, portable networks, less central power.
What is Foresight?
A set of strategic tools that support
government and industry decisions
with adequate lead time for societal
preparation and strategic response.
•
•
•
•
•
Anticipates multiple, plausible futures
5 – 25 year time horizon
A rehearsal for potential futures
Accommodates uncertainty & diversity
Highlights emerging opportunities & threats
Foresight Tools
• Environmental Scanning
• Scenario Planning
• Technology Mapping
and Road-mapping
• Expert Technical Panels
• Robust Factor Analysis
and Strategies Development
• Web Virtual Conferences
• Computerized Modelling
and Dynamic Simulation
Scenario Basics
Stories With Implications
• Rich context
• Provocative diversity
• Relate to perceived needs
& opportunities
• Designate some edges –
choices, boundaries
• Consider also the opposites
- + and -
Critical Parameters
• 4-7 is best, > 10 confuses
• Plots are useful when
transparent, consistently
structured, concise
• Focus is critical to engage key
stakeholders
• Challenges-evidence tests may
be useful
• Balance of structure-free form
helps ensure vibrancy
• Evocative names help
recognition & thematic links
Foresight Systems Lenses
Relevance-Importance
Spheres of Influence
•
•
•
•
•
•
•
•
•
•
•
•
•
•
•
Plausibility
Technical feasibility
Probability
Convergence character
Disruptive potential
Relative preference
Relative expectation
Instant Buzz Factor
Ecological
Economic- Productive
Socio-ethical
Educational
Geo-political
Military-Intelligence
Values & Culture
Effectiveness -Robustness
• Real uncertainties exposed,
elaborated in different ways
• Consensus on risks leads to clear
divides between positives and
negatives - OR
• Strong and diverging pathways
ensures issues and choices are clear
with implications
• Stakeholders articulate and begin to
advocate new opportunities, strategies
for avoidance of threats
• Meta-insights emerge about the
fundamental mission and its riskreward systems
Environmental
Scanning
• Strategic Trends: i.e. factors that shift as a
result of change patterns, but we have little
influence: e.g. more nuclear equipped nations;
failing states proliferation;
• Critical Drivers and Uncertainties: i. e.
discernible change patterns that may be
amenable to stakeholder actions; e.g. global
security; major S&T developments
• Possible Shocks: i.e. wild card, high impact,
low probability events that alter fundamentals;
e.g. 9-11; Iran as a nuclear power
Macro Shaping Trends
•
•
•
•
•
•
•
•
•
•
•
Ambient Intelligence – progress toward the Singularity
Miniaturization of Technology
Globalization of Capital, Terror , Disease, Eco-environment
Anti-globalization of Biodiversity, Culture, Sustainability
De-Carbonization of Energy Economy
Harmonization - Standardization for Trade
Migration, Multi-Culturalism of Populations
Intensification, Differentiation, of Wealth
Bi-polarization of religious Values and Secular Evolution
Transformation, of Infrastructure Systems
Virtualization, Digitization & Integration of: Business-Professions,
Production, Communications, Entertainment, Education
Acceleration of Knowledge Services as Economic Driver
•
• Proliferation of Surveillance - Security
Key Societal
Change Domains
•
•
•
•
•
•
•
Demographics – population shifts, immigration issues
Science & Technology – genomics, biotech,
convergence, nanotech, telecom & energy innovations
Environment – carrying capacity, global ecology,
treaties
Attitudes, Values, Beliefs – from opinion to religion to
geopolitical impacts on culture, security-terror etc.
Global Economy – interdependent markets, trade,
wealth shifts, productivity & management of
innovation
Governance & Institutions – political organization,
nascent, failed and rogue states
Evident Threats - to civilization, growth economies &
infrastructure and to specific populations/segments
ONSA Foresight
2004 - 06
Canadian Foresight – ONSA Led
Challenges
Results
•
Future fuel- technology options,
alternatives to conventional oil
•
Technology roadmaps for bio-fuels, hydrogen-fuel cells ,
unconventional hydrocarbons
•
Technological innovation for the
Canadian Health System;
•
Technology maps and health commercialization advice;
identified new technologies and regulatory stewardship
•
S&T for public safety and all
hazards Canadian security;
•
Threat scenarios, S&T strategies for the DRDC – PSEPC
Center for Security Science, links with USDHS, Proteus
Critical Thinking Game;
•
How to manage public anxieties re
animal diseases and mass cullsdisposal;
•
Technology-communications measures for the CFIA to
manage R&D and threats to public health, and strategies
for proactive public anxiety reduction;
•
How bio-products might factor
into our future economy
•
Scenarios and Canadian policy drivers for emerging bioproduct markets and development paths
ONSA Connections with
Global Foresight
Networks
• USA National Science Advisor, Cyber Security
Task Force, National Science Foundation, National
Intelligence Council, Director of National Intelligence
• UK Chief Scientist and Foresight Office
• Finland and Sweden: Finnsight 2015, Swedish
Foresight Laboratory - Vinnova
• European Commission DG Research: Euro
Research Area Foresight Network; Institute for
Prospective Technology Studies, Framework Program 7
• NISTEP Japan; KISTEP Korea
• APEC Centre for Technology Foresight , Industrial
Science and Technology and Energy Working Groups
• UN University Millennium Project
• Germany Futur; France Futuris
Foresight Process Overview
Define Project Topic
Review Current Situation
Identify Key Lenses
Answer Challenge Questions
Identify Change Drivers
Populate Each Scenario
Select Critical Drivers
Backcast to Present
Identify Scenarios
Synthesis & Recommendations
Three Revolutions in Science
Nanotechnology
Advanced Computation
Systems Biology
Carbon Nanotubes:
Convergent Potentials
Electronic Properties:
 The best field
emitters known
 Already developed
for field emission
displays, lighting
 Molecular wires
 Semiconducting
or metallic
 Single-electron
transistors demonstrated
 Ballistic transport
(109 A/cm2) –
up to 1 mA per tube!
Courtesy of Battelle - Dave Geohegan, ORNL
Structural properties: Composites
 Strongest material known to man
 100 times stronger than steel,
only one-sixth the weight
 Stiffness-to-weight ratio 40x higher
than that of aluminum
 Electrical conductivity better
than copper
 Thermal conductivity greater
than diamond
1 nm
 Hollow:
gas storage,
drug delivery
 Water filtration
 Actuation
demonstrated
Controlled Bio-Energy
Convergence
Post-genomic biology offers the promise of controlled design of energy systems
The Billion-Ton Vision:
Biomass Could Displace
30% or More of Our
Current Transportation
Fuel Needs
Research Methodology…
Each technology/application
area was evaluated by each
expert panel member on three
relevant dimensions:
• Commercial Potential
• Technical Feasibility
• Public Policy Issues
The midpoint of each team's
evaluation are shown in the following
3 diagrams…
Convergent Technologies for
Health and Life Sciences 2020
Anticipated Market Size
Anticipated Feasibility
Convergent Technologies for
Energy and the Environment
Anticipated Market Size
Anticipated Feasibility
Convergent Technologies for Water,
Food, and Bio-fuels 2020
Anticipated Market Size
Anticipated Feasibility
Converging Technologies
For Canada ?
1.
2.
3.
4.
5.
6.
7.
8.
9.
10.
11.
"Clean Coal" technologies
Bio-nano-health Monitors
Implantable Nanoarrays for Livestock
"CO2 Sequestration" technologies
Environmental nanobiosensors
On-time Nano-vaccinology
"Biomass  Biofuels" technologies
Medical "Tricorder"
Smart Agri-bio Nanoencapsulation
Food-tracking Nanotags
Directed Evolution Chips
Extreme Views of
Convergence
Cautious
scientists Sagan, Asimov
Evidence over
Hope
Techno-utopia
Transhumanists
Civil Society
TechnoSkeptics
Techno-dystopia
Hope over
Reason
Religious
conservatives
Trends in Nanotechnology
 Smart materials with nano films, structures
 Integration of functions and structure in membranes,
fabrics, fibers, self powered entities, biomimetic
materials
 New environmental leaps in performance: e.g water
filtration and purification, biocidals, bioremediation
and decontamination
 Nano sensor networks, tracking capacities – nanoelectro-mechanics (eg HVAC embedded)
 Wearable personalized nano sensors with data and
communications capabilities
 Energy and power efficiencies improvements, battery
power management
 Smart dust capability for widespread human ,
environments surveillance
 Computational devices embedded in consumer,
commercial goods
 Functional, programmable nanostructures for
controlled drug delivery, performance of implants,
protheses
 New devices, building materials and fabrics that
incorporate nano film solar power and are climate
responsive
Trends in Biotechnology
•
•
•
•
•
•
•
•
•
•
Control, improvements in living organisms
Bio-sensing at the micro and nano level, micro and
nano electromechanics
Integration with wireless, RFID, photonics-molecular
level cameras
Tissue engineering, artificial organs, implants and
protheses
Targeted drug delivery and use of in vitro capacities
Rapid scaleable bio-assays for molecule ID, medical
diagnosis and forensics
Personalized medicine using large data sets of patient
information, disease statistics, gene sequences and
genotypes
Genetically modified insects to counter pathogen
carriers
In silico- computer testing and comprehensive
modelling for drug characteristics, side effects and
receptor simulation – lab on chip
Molecular recognition –targeted drug delivery to
organs, tumours
Trends in Infotechnology &
Ambient Intelligence (ICT)
 Progress toward ubiquitous access and embededness;
 Open source collaborative tools and deeper peer- to
peer functionality;
 Continued migration towards device and functional
convergence;
 Infobased manufacturing, claytronics for distributed
fabrication;
 Broader object based nodes and networks so
everything can be smart and connected;
 Pervasive E Science and dynamic simulation and
modelling;
 Gaming for personal and organizational decisions,
learning;
 Emerging horizons for faster, exponentially more
powerful encryption, quantum information
 Sustained info markets growth for surveillance, sensor
networks, tracking capacities, nano-electromechanics
 Wearable, implantable personalized micro-nano-bio
info sensors with data and communications
capabilities
Glimpses of the Nanocosm*
•
•
•
•
•
•
Targeted delivery of nano-scale pharmaceuticals;
Nanoparticles for cancer treatment;
Smart bio-nano materials and implants;
Nanosensor determined synthetic
environments;
Nanosistors – wavicles: logic gates for
molecular DNA based computing;
• Impermeable, anti corrosive nano composite coatings
• Wearable polymer nano-electronics for
portable, personal bio-cogno self monitoring –
computing
* Nanocosm by William Illsey Atkinson, Penguin Books Canada 2003
The Big Uncertainty
When, how and with what
implications, nano level self
assembly will be practical for
not only new materials but
new machines with new and
amazing programmable
capabilities
Pathways Toward Self
Assembly
CRN Scenarios
1. New Arms Race: Secret Military Development
2. Positive Expectations - Evolutionary Potential
3. Molecular Anarchy & Redemption
4. Nano-Recede: Elusive Drextech
5. And Not a Drop to Drink
6. Nano-Policy Crisis
7. Breaking the Fever
8. Newshound Notebook 2018