Science and Technology Foresight Pilot Project

:

Progress Report on Synthesis of Technical Panels and Preliminary Scenarios Development

AAFC CFIA CSA CRC DND EC FOC HC IC NRC NRCan NSERC

TECHNOLOGY FORESIGHT is…

Systematic exploration of the longer-term future of science and technology, and their potential impacts on society, with a view to identifying emerging factors driving change, and the areas of scientific research and technological development likely to influence change and yield the greatest economic, environmental and social benefits over the next 10-25 years.

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The Disclaimer

The ideas, potential developments and prospective events envisioned in this report have been identified by participants as situations that could occur in the future. They do not purport to be predictive. The approach we are taking relies upon consulting a wide range of expertise, with the expectation that through our collective experience, imaginative abilities and interactive knowledge of technological development pathways, we can begin to construct a coherent view of some of the major developments that can be anticipated within a 10-25 time horizon. This is the nature of foresight - creating a range of plausible future elements that in their diversity should alert readers to the kinds of issues and perspectives they may not have initially considered in longer term research planning and contingency thinking.

Accordingly, this report reflects the combined views of the participants, and the best wisdom and creative thinking that we could stimulate with the tools of foresight, but

it clearly does not represent an official view of the Government of Canada or any of its Departments and or Agencies.

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STFP Project Background

• • • • •

Pilot project proposed by NRC, endorsed by FINE DMs and ADMs.

Pilot project independent of any other S&T funding.

Funded by participating agencies.

Multi-departmental Working Group identified 2 key technology sectors for study:

–

GEOSTRATEGICS

: including geo-spatial data sensing, gathering, artificial intelligence, pattern analysis and knowledge management.

–

BIOSYSTEMICS

eco and food systems, emergent and convergent trends in health, genomics & disease mitigation and cognitive science.

: including nano to global biotechnology, Project Team led by NRC Office of Technology Foresight composed of seconded staff and consultants

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PROJECT OBJECTIVES

• • • •

Create

a futures context & discussion framework for the development of policies, agendas & investment strategies for S&T and R&D.

Initiate

a network to create discussion and emerging consensus on where and how to collaborate among departments, agencies & other stakeholders.

Strengthen

Canadian & international experts in advanced 'geo' and 'bio' S&T.

& focus networks of collaboration among

Design

and process for the inclusion of S&T input to the policy process.

and test a collaborative learning methodology 5

Purpose & Practice

Society and Politics Economics and Finance Science and Technology

Communities of Practice

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Communities of Purpose

• Alignment along priority areas • Often operate as specialty ‘silos’ • • Use S&T as a specialty skill set • Compete for attention and funding

May have conflicting priorities:

–

Environment vs. Resource management

– – –

Economic development vs. Security Short term efficiency vs Long term effectiveness Opportunities may be missed or problems narrowed to comply with mission boundaries

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Communities of Practice

• Alignment based on horizontal, affiliated disciplines with traditional ways of working together on broad issues • Society and Politics

– Value-based, distributes authority – Operates on political, executive level

• Economics and Finance

– Money-based, distributes resource – Operates at central bureaucratic level 8

Science and Technology

• • • •

Knowledge-based, distributes capability Fragmented, does not act as a true horizontal policy vector Traditions of inter-disciplinarity only now developing Significant innovation potential

– – –

Efficiency of existing programs Formulation of new policies Avoidance of problems created by a purely commercial research agenda

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Sustainability science; Remote environmental sensing Metabolomics; Technology convergence/genetics DNA-based early warning; Advanced power systems Microbial ecosystems; Remote diagnosis/diseases Personalized medicine; Biotechnology; Human global health/environment Predictive modelling; Security/Info systems, networks Integrated nanotechnology Regenerative medicine Advanced computational systems

A Range of Prospects

Climate change from space Sustainable manufacturing Intelligent robotics systems Space for environmental security Biomass energy Changing northern environment Space-enabling technologies Biodiversity/Invasive species Canada’s sea floor Virtual ocean Proteomics/economy, health Space Surveillance and National Security Intelligent Autonomous Systems. Clean hydrocarbons, H 2 Sensors/Activators - health Biodiversity info for KBE Security of Info Infrastructure

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Geostrategics

The future horizons and applications of geo-spatial data and related knowledge management technologies for decision support, including pattern recognition software, wireless communications infrastructure futures, and links to major new capacities in surveillance, ecological monitoring and resource management technologies.

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The Geostrategics ?

How will geo-strategic knowledge, technology and prospective applications likely to be available in 2015 reshape our understanding of Canada, its land, sea and air/space resources, and provide new capabilities for national security, and the stewardship and sustainability of Canada’s resources?

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Biosystemics

The convergence of nanotechnology, ecological science, biotechnology, information technology and cognitive sciences, and their prospective impacts on materials science, the management of complex public systems for bio-health, eco and food system integrity and disease mitigation.

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The Biosystemics ?

How can the federal government better understand the complexities and interdependencies of Canada’s food, health and environmental systems, and develop a 10+ year horizon of actionable intelligence for research and policy in these areas, given new knowledge about emergence, behavior of populations, disease ecology, genomics, etc.?

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BioSystemics Characteristics

• Scale – Nano-scale observations at low end – Data handling and simulation at high end • Convergence – Unity at the material level • Consilience – High level models may result in unity at theoretical level • Emergence – Seeking to understand rules for networks, tipping points, systems structure, chaos and complexity 15

Science and Scale

Exa Peta Tera Giga Mega Kilo Hecto Deca 1 Deci Centi Milli Micro Nano Pico Femto Atto ecology bioinformatics epidemiology Giga scale Increased Understanding of systems Dynamics & integration

Physics Chemistry Biology

biogeneration Genetic engineering Semiconductor photonics genomics Nanoscale Increased ability To observe & Work with matter At atomic level 16

Convergence

Computers Biotech Networks Bits Genes Neurons Atoms Nanotech

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Nano Bio Info/Cogno

Consilience

• Unity of theory and knowledge • Vertical integration using computational models • Hybrid technologies – Nano-medecine – Quantum computing • May well include social sciences 18

GeoStrategics Value System

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Focus & Scope

• We approach Geostrategics from a

application

perspective, as opposed to the

technology areas

offered in Biosystemics.

• 6 Topics Identified by the Scoping workshop:

1. Environment & Resources 2. National Security & Emergency 3. Transportation 4. Sustainable Cities and Urban Development 5. Heath Risks and Hazards 6. Ocean and Inland Water Resources

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Convergence Of Sciences & Advanced Technologies

Increased Scientific Understanding & Improved Models

Atmospheric Science Biology Robotics Knowledge Management

Lower Launch Communication Systems

Geoscience Climatology Photonics Nanotechnology

Improved Sensors & Advanced Platforms Enable:

• • • • • • Two week weather prediction Climate/ environmental prediction Land/ biosphere prediction Prediction of air/water quality Prediction of natural hazards Efficient management of resources Renewable Energy Urban Studies Advanced Materials

IT = Information Technology

Meteorology Oceanography Mapping Ecology

Advanced IT Systems Real-Time Systems

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Spectrum of Breakthrough GeoStrategic Technologies Needed

Sensors Sensor Web Information Synthesis Access to Knowledge Science & Architectures Sensors

•

3D Detectors

•

Non-Linear Optics

•

Tunable Lidar

•

Advanced microwave

•

Micro Lidar

•

Warm Focal Planes

•

Large Telescopes and Antennas

•

Biological Markers Sensorweb

•

Adaptive Data

• • • • •

Management Automated Calibration Reconfigurable Communications Autonomous Operations Multi-Functional Structures Rad-Tolerant Microelectronics Information Synthesis

• • • • •

Space/Ground Programming Env.

Reconfiguration Management Open Model Architecture Parallel Systems Geo-spatial DBMS

•

Standards & Protocols Access to Knowledge

•

Human Computer Interface for Geo-Spatial Datasets

• • • • •

Collaborative Environments Distributed Visualization High Bandwidth Delivery Systems Data Mining/Dynamic Data Fusion Geo-reference Standards

Source: Dr. Bob Ryerson, NRCan 22

DELIVERABLES & REPORTING

• Summaries of results for each stage: scoping workshops; technical panels; synthesis, and scenarios.

• High priority 'robust' + disruptive or transformative technologies.

• Potential collaborative R&D strategies.

• Potential new planning and contingency roles or foci for government, industry and academia.

• Suggestions for action, including; horizontal S&T/R&D mechanisms and partnerships, capacity requirements, best practices, & improvements to project methodology.

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Present

•Nanotubes •Nano-coatings •Liposomes •Lapping compounds

Convergence

•Microbivores •Photonic crystals •Molecular switching •Sensors

Nanotechnology

Future

•Quantum dots •Catalyst •SET •Self-org manufacture

Consilience

•Reproduction of natural processes (DNA) •Enable macro n/w 24

Present

•Moore’s Law •Internet •Data Mining •Simulation

Convergence

•Bio-interface •Asynchronous •Low energy chip •Gigaflop modeling

Info-Cogno Technology

Future

•AI - Smart •Controls •Autonomic •Pervasive

Consilience

•Singularity – change so rapid it can only be managed by trans humans 25

Present

•Top-down models •Epidemiology •Model results •H. Scale dynamics

Convergence

•Biological models •Replication •Adaptation •Heuristic

Systemics

Future

•Bottom-up •Eco-epidemiology •Model basic activity •Micro-dynamics

Consilience

•Unified world view will require high level of cross-disciplinary education.

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Present:

•

Distributed silos

•

Fragmented data collection

•

Fragmented infrastructure, systems

•

Some Interconnections

•

Data focused

•

Lack of real-time coverage, data, systems

•

Difficult data integration

Geostrategic Future?

Future:

•

Integrated Geo Utility at system level

•

Open system integrated infrastructure

•

Integrated data collection

•

Seamless to users; “get what you want when you want it”

•

Real-time coverage, data and systems

•

Significantly wireless

•

Integrated, inexpensive

•

sensors AI and pattern recognition & pervasive surveillance

•

Sensor webs with bio, physical, chemical and physical measurements

•

Peer to peer calibration and validation real time

•

Smart maps

•

Smart systems

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support focused for customers

Geostrategics Wild Cards

• Technology acceptance (e.g. privacy vs. security) • International conflicts, war • Terrorist attacks (chemical, biological, radioactive, nuclear, information, internet) • Unexpected natural disasters (floods, droughts, hurricanes etc.) • Climate change acceleration • Satellite, ground station failures • Collapse of the economy, financial system • Collapse of the United Nations, change in world order • Human made disasters and accidents (e.g. Walkerton, genetic accident) • Technology breakthroughs or commercialization of unknown military technologies with significant impact • Pandemic • Interstellar events 28

Range of Enabling Technologies

• • • • • • • • •

Nanotechnology Designer materials Increasing information processing power of semiconductors, photonic, DNA, quantum computing High speed, high bandwidth communications Semantic internet Smart systems and agents Autonomic software (self-repair and automatic code generation) Wireless communications, including peer to peer communications and computing Portable fuel cells and new forms of power generation

• • • • • • • • • • •

Real-time information systems Robotics, nanorobotics Organic, bio sensors Integrated, inexpensive, smart sensors (nano, bio, chemical, physical, optical) New human-machine interfaces (e.g. direct link to the brain) Virtual reality based visioning and decision-support tools Telepresence Smart vehicle technologies Geopositioning systems Micro, nano satellite constellations Ocean technologies

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Scenario Approaches

• • • • •

Axes of Uncertainty

: boundaries of expectation, quadrants of contrast

Themes that Colour

: technovectors and societal receptions; social diversity

Projective Analytics

: projecting the present and adding “spice to the space”

Wildcards and Inversions

: thinking the unthinkable and the reversals

S&T Emergent & Determinant

: technology as the dominant driver and critical differentiator 30

Scenario Purposes

• Tracking emergence & prospective impacts of influential trends & technologies • Informing R&D planners, policy makers • Engaging, coalescing strategic thinking • Elucidation of unseen connections, new insights • Evaluating & comparing a range of scenarios to assess robustness of technologies • Facilitating long term R&D and strategic investments • Imagining future knowledge & skills needs, job shifts 31

e.g. 15 Potential Themes

• • • • • • •

GAIA Strikes Back

– technology & systems collapses, pervasive barriers

Agility Advantage Can

: succeeding, adapting, competing, diversifying

Co-Evolu-Innova-tion

: Gov’t & communities as co-innovators

Insecure Cocoon

: terrorism unchecked, ever present

Virtual Avatar:

cyber-reality

Genomic Anomic

: biotech transformations & upsets

Comfortably Numb

: big brother takes care through technology • • • • • • • •

Birkenstock Bicycle

: toward assured sustainability

Cool is Cruel

: cultural fixations for technology, & fast shifts

O Say Can You C AmeriCanada?:

Canada slow merge into the USA

Navigation Net

: fully enabled wireless net functionality

Techno Freak

: reversals of socio technical potential into problems

Other Sides

: parallel worlds of values & technology co-existing

True North Long & Narrow

: life on the fringe

Invisible Hand

: vibrant 21 st marketplaces century 32

VII. Implications for Federal Research & Development

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