Decision Support Modelling Under Uncertainty

Empowering organisations with clarity

Strategy Foresight works with senior officers and direction-setting teams to:

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Perform a very advanced form of (knowledge) gap analysis Tackle genuine uncertainty before modelling risk Construct scenarios and develop strategy alternatives Develop ‘what if’ models for stakeholder engagement Relate means and ends in complex situations with limited resources Analyse and develop organisational and system structure

Strategy Foresight is not a consulting firm

    Facilitators who work with very complex issues aka ‘wicked problems’ Model unintended consequences of policy design, product design features etc.

Proprietary software – models developed in real time with the client No army of researchers – the client’s workshop team are the specialists

Strategy Foresight facilitates entire process by:

Deploying highly experienced facilitators Designing specialist workshop teams

Stretch Capture Shape Select Prioritise

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Policy formulation

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Product design

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Business intelligence

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Crisis planning

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Futures research

Using processes developed in the military

We develop multi-attribute ‘what if’ models for decision support under uncertainty

Inputs Outputs

The above example depicts 186,624 formal combinations – with facilitation and proprietary software, this can reduced by over 99%

…..and provide clients with novel software to construct their own scenarios and strategy alternatives

1. Input and outputs interchangeable manipulate both cause and effect 2. Ability to freeze and compare scenarios and strategy alternatives 3. Reducing decision alternatives does not require re-developing entire model 4. Easily updatable: visual, real time systematic group exploration for collective creativity and decision-making 5. Speed, efficiency and cost of facilitation and model development is a fraction of traditional consultancies

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Case Study 1: New financial products for uncertain futures

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How to develop new car insurance products in the

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The Intervention

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Developed an inference model framework to allow client to identify types of products dependent upon different future scenarios The Result

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Range of niche products identified for different customer segments including those if financial crash occurred

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Implemented strategies for financial crash

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Unearthed novel solutions such as car subscription and instant SMS insurance

Case Study 2: Sustainability Issues for large scale producers

The Client

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Ministry of Environment and Environmental Protection Agency

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Minister of State for Environment The Issue

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Develop scenarios and appropriate strategies for Extended Producer Responsibility (EPR) system The Intervention

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Multi-dimensional matrix inference model developed by convening disparate EPR stakeholders

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To comply with European Directives of each member state implementing EPR policy The Result

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Generation of different future projections with associated national strategic directions e.g. development of regional high-tech recycling industry sector

What ’s the outcome?

• • • Accommodate multiple, alternative perspectives to anticipate unintended consequences vs. prescribing single solution Anticipates consequences of decisions made under conditions of high uncertainty, incomplete data and high decision stakes Manage genuine uncertainty by facilitating comparative judgements on a sound methodological basis

Strategy Foresight unlocks latent organisational capacity for you to move forward with purpose

“Organisations have no spare mental capacity. They’re so preoccupied dealing with their present problems that its nigh-on possible to engage them in a conversation about the future” Management Consulting Association (UK) Annual Report, 2009

SFP

Ravetz and Funtowicz, 1993

Strategy Foresight is flexible to client needs

Foresight Monitoring

Knowledge Centre Sector Intelligence Custom Research

Foresight Management

Client assignments Client updates Client crisis management

Foresight Community

Online community Symposia and workshops Thought Leadership Insight Analysis Research

Primary and Secondary Research

Advisory Facilitation

Modelling sectors Training facilitators

Foresight Networking

Peer dialogue Sharing next practice

SFP has completed 125+ projects across the globe

      Improving quality and quantity of investment grade deal flow (UK)* Developing auto insurance products for global threats (Sweden) Bioethics of drug redevelopment (UK) New strategic directions for FMCG multinational (Sweden)* Predicting and mitigating risks to corporate reputation (UK)* Sustainable mining techniques (Brazil)

* current projects

Contacting Strategy Foresight LLP

Strategy Foresight Partnership LLP Innovation Warehouse 1 East Poultry Avenue Farringdon London EC1M 6HJ Tel: Fax: Email: Web: 07786 266878 0208 8612925 [email protected]

www.strategyforesight.org