Transcript MLW1 – Systems Thinking for Foresight Foresight & Higher Education - Two cases - Dr.

MLW1 – Systems Thinking for Foresight
Foresight & Higher Education
- Two cases -
Dr. Ozcan Saritas*
[email protected]
*with thanks to Prof. Luke Georghiou who has kindly provided some of these slides
Ozcan Saritas
1
Sept 24, 2009
Bucharest
MLW1 – Systems Thinking for Foresight
Change and Uncertainty: The context of HE

Peak oil / Climate change / Urbanisation / Terrorism

Gene therapy / stem cell injections / artificial intelligence

How should schools, universities and educational system deal
with these changes?

Curricula / Roles of teachers & students

What are the alternative futures for education? – as a subset
of broader transformation of society

What future for Universities?
Ozcan Saritas
2
Sept 24, 2009
Bucharest
MLW1 – Systems Thinking for Foresight
1. The “new” University of Manchester


Victoria University of Manchester and
UMIST merged in October 2004 to
form UK’s largest university
The 2015 Vision of the new
institution – overall objective set out
in Vision Document Manchester 2015
To make the University of Manchester,
already an internationally
distinguished centre of research,
innovation learning and scholarly
inquiry, one of the leading
universities in the world by 2015.

Aiming for distinctive identity that
equalled but did not emulate the UK’s
“Golden Triangle” or the US Ivy
League
Ozcan Saritas
3
Sept 24, 2009
Bucharest
MLW1 – Systems Thinking for Foresight
Strategy Encapsulated in 9 Goals
1 High International Standing

To establish the University of Manchester as a world renowned centre of
scholarship and research by 2015. To match the leading universities in the world
in attracting and retaining teachers, researchers and 'critical mass' research
teams of the highest quality. To be a higher education brand synonymous with
the finest international standards of academic excellence with pioneering,
influential and exciting research and scholarship.
2 World Class Research

3
4
5
6
7
9
To establish the University of Manchester by 2015 among the 25 strongest
research universities in the world on commonly accepted criteria of research
excellence and performance.
Exemplary Knowledge and Technology Transfer
Excellent Teaching and Learning
Widening Participation
Empowering Collegiality
Efficient, Effective Management
More Effective Community Service
Ozcan Saritas
4
Sept 24, 2009
Bucharest
MLW1 – Systems Thinking for Foresight
2015 Agenda – Key Goals and Key
Performance Indicators (KPIs)
Goal 1: High International Standing
Present KPIs
 Clear evidence of improvement in standing as measured by
reputable international higher education rankings
 Appointing a number of ‘iconic’ scholars: 5 Nobel Laureates on
staff by 2015, 3 by 2008
Ozcan Saritas
5
Sept 24, 2009
Bucharest
MLW1 – Systems Thinking for Foresight
2015 Agenda
Goal 2: World Class Research
Initial KPIs

50% staff international quality 2008; 70% 2015

Doubling real research income by 2015

Doubling postgraduate research students and postdocs by
2015
Present modified KPIs

Annual increase in share of high impact research publications

Doubling real external grant income by 2015

Treble research expenditure by 2015

Double no of PGR students successfully completing and no of
postdocs by 2015
Ozcan Saritas
6
Sept 24, 2009
Bucharest
MLW1 – Systems Thinking for Foresight
Progress to Date –
Achievements

Two Nobel laureates signed (one paid for by
large donation) plus another iconic
appointment, several more in pipeline

Research income growth ahead of schedule
TARE rose 45% in 3 years

Most popular in terms of student applications
– growing when others falling

External recognition – Times Higher and
Sunday Times University of the Year in
successive years

Biggest mover up the rankings but not
enough
Ozcan Saritas
7
Sept 24, 2009
Bucharest
MLW1 – Systems Thinking for Foresight
Tracking the ARWU Academic Ranking of World Universities
2008
World
ranking
40
2007
48
9
5
2006
50
9
5
2005
53
12
6
78*
24*
9*
2004*
European
ranking
6
UK ranking
5
* VUM only
Ozcan Saritas
8
Sept 24, 2009
Bucharest
MLW1 – Systems Thinking for Foresight
Challenges

Financial
– Large operating deficit in 2006 (£30m on £601m turnover) had to be
eliminated – now back in surplus
– Driven by larger than expected national salary settlements, growth of staff
numbers by 2,800, investment ahead of RAE and structural deficit through
duplication
– Early retirement and voluntary severance scheme reduced staff (mainly
admin) by 630
– Highlights marginal nature of academic finances and vulnerability to shocks
meaning must maintain drive for productivity gain and growth of high
revenue areas

Balancing teaching and research

Trade off between indicators has to be managed
– Initial push for research gave students impression of neglect
– University now launched challenging initiative to re-personalise
undergraduate education while gaining efficiency through e-learning and
Graduate Teaching Assistants
– Promotion tracks available for teaching and knowledge transfer specialist as
well as conventional careers
Ozcan Saritas
9
Sept 24, 2009
Bucharest
MLW1 – Systems Thinking for Foresight
2. UK Scenarios Project



Dept. of Innov., Univ.s & Skills was formed in 2007 and
merged in to Dept. of Business Innov. & Skills in 2009
Ministers commissioned HSC to run scenarios process to
– Improve robustness of existing policies by acting as a stimulating challenge
– Assist in the development of new policies and corporate plans
10 dimensions of uncertainty identified in interaction with
expert and stakeholder groups – external and internal
– Values and beliefs
– Demographics and migration
– Economic integration governance and models (“uncertainty whether growth
is to remain steady or whether there will be volatility. Increasing economic
interdependence, especially in financial markets, poses regulatory and policy
challenges ”)
– Research and innovation; Education and skills

Scenario axes
– Global political and economic context
– Values in the UK
Ozcan Saritas
10
Sept 24, 2009
Bucharest
MLW1 – Systems Thinking for Foresight
Figure Scenario structure
Ozcan Saritas
11
Sept 24, 2009
Bucharest
MLW1 – Systems Thinking for Foresight
Open
1. Perpetual Motion
2. Shaken Open
 Innovation Corporation-led, strong
 Innovation State-led, weak IPR, open
IPR, R&D moves to China and India
innovation
 Universities Global and
teaching disconnect
 Skills Buying talent internationally,
inequalities in UK
 Research market-led, mobile
 Universities Global collaborative,
Global Context
commercialised, research and
Individual
standardised teaching
 Skills Buying talent internationally, upskilling the UK
 Research Challenge-led, ‘blue skies’
Social Values
4. Self-Service
Collective
3. Protective Collective
 Innovation Bottom-up, self-sufficiency,
 Innovation SME-led, self-sufficiency,
weak IPR
protecting knowledge
 Universities Focus on community and
 Universities A UK market, autonomy,
private HEIs, demand-led, competition
nation, government-directed
 Skills Major skills gap, strong need for
 Skills National re-skilling programme,
basic skills return
re-skilling, demand-led
 Research State-led, national challenges
 Research Private sector-led, immobile
Closed
Ozcan Saritas
12
Sept 24, 2009
Bucharest
– Systems Thinking for Foresight
Application in MLW1
University
of Manchester
INTERNATIONALISATION
Drivers of Change for HE
International
mobility
e-learning
New entrants
Competition
BUSINESS
Globalisation
Specialisation
Differentiation
Commercialisation
Open
innovation
International
governance
Cooperation
Tuition
fees
Student
consumerism
Insufficient
resources
STUDENT
NUMBERS
Widening
participation
RESEARCH
Business
Ozcan Saritas
New research
13
technologies
Demographic
Sept 24, 2009
change Bucharest
MLW1 – Systems Thinking for Foresight
University of Manchester Scenarios

Our attempt to translate the implications for this institution

Again seeking plausible stories not predictions

Our previous foresight had looked at intellectual and structural
trends with the aim of identifying emerging priority themes

But sense of impending crisis means need to think beyond the
business plan…

Most recent round articulated UK scenarios for our own
environment
Ozcan Saritas
14
Sept 24, 2009
Bucharest
MLW1 – Systems Thinking for Foresight
Global Player
Perpetual Motion
– Global Player
Research – mainly private
sector and much from overseas
and for arts and humanities
from donations
Teaching – consumer focus
delivered internationally via
blended learning
Knowledge transfer – one third
of income from CPD
Ozcan Saritas
15
Sept 24, 2009
Bucharest
MLW1 – Systems Thinking for Foresight
Global Alliances
Shaken Open
– Global Alliances
Research – Large scale
challenge projects with
investigator driven funding only
for elite
Teaching – Global alliances with
franchising; Student idealism
demands engagement with
social issues
Knowledge transfer – weak IPR
driving CPD market for updated
skills
Ozcan Saritas
16
Sept 24, 2009
Bucharest
MLW1 – Systems Thinking for Foresight
Manchester as a National and Regional Institution
Protective Collective
Research – Dual support
surviving at low level;
strong national focus in
research agenda
Teaching – Loss of
overseas markets, national
skills agenda dominates;
widening participation
Knowledge transfer – focus
on national and regional
markets
Ozcan Saritas
17
Sept 24, 2009
Bucharest
MLW1 – Systems Thinking for Foresight
Manchester Downsized and Downmarket
Self-Service
Research – Low level but some
self-support through earnings
from entrepreneurship
Teaching – Substantial downsizing
in home and overseas markets;
Part-time and blended learning
dominate
Knowledge transfer – CPD market
mainly for individual upskilling
Ozcan Saritas
18
Sept 24, 2009
Bucharest
MLW1 – Systems Thinking for Foresight
How are we using the foresight?

Strategic review looking at viability of activities

Profiling all staff in terms of research

Financial scenarios to anticipate potential negative public
sector financial environment as post-election government
seeks to repair public finances

Strong efforts in areas of discretionary income growth
– Executive Education/Continuing Professional Development
Ozcan Saritas
19
Sept 24, 2009
Bucharest
MLW1 – Systems Thinking for Foresight
3. PYY2023 & BUIM2023 Foresight Exercises
BUIM: Bosphorus University,
Engineering Faculty
The Department of Civil Engineering
PYY: Istanbul Technical University,
Architecture
Faculty,
The Division of
Project and Construction Management
Ozcan Saritas
20
Sept 24, 2009
Bucharest
MLW1 – Systems Thinking for Foresight
PYY2023 & BUIM2023 Goals
Five Goals:
1. Thinking about the long term future in a holistic manner, and
2. Developing future visions for the construction industry and
PYY and BUIM departments, with
3. A wide participation, to
4. Identify future R&D and T&E areas, and to
5. Develop research and teaching policies and strategies for
long, medium and short terms.
Ozcan Saritas
21
Sept 24, 2009
Bucharest
MLW1 – Systems Thinking for Foresight
Project proposal documents
Construction2023 survey
[email protected]
Pre-project
work
Keyword analysis
Project proposal and goal definition
Systems elements and relationships
BUIM2023
PYY2023
Construction2023
Project
work
BUIM2023 & PYY2023
Roadmapping
Decisions for today
Post-project
work
Project Reports
Comparison
Further actions
Ozcan Saritas
22
Sept 24, 2009
Bucharest
MLW1 – Systems Thinking for Foresight
Ozcan Saritas
23
Sept 24, 2009
Bucharest
MLW1 – Systems Thinking for Foresight
Ozcan Saritas
24
Sept 24, 2009
Bucharest
MLW1 – Systems Thinking for Foresight
Outputs & Outcomes
1.
New R&D and teaching areas
2.
New PhD and MSc topics
3.
New curricula for 2010, 2015 & 2020
4.
Optimisation of research and teaching potential
5.
New recruitments (2007-2010 alternative energy sources)
6.
Selection criteria for the employment of new researchers and
research students
7.
Collaborations needed with other disciplines
8.
New infrastructure needs
9.
Future development directions
10. “Know theyselves” More effective communication
Ozcan Saritas
25
Sept 24, 2009
Bucharest
MLW1 – Systems Thinking for Foresight
References

Georghiou. L. (2009). Strategy to Join the Elite: Merger and the 2015
Agenda at the University of Manchester, in McKelvey M and Holmen M
(eds) Learning To Compete In European Universities - From
Social Institution to Knowledge Business Edward Elgar.

Saritas, O. (2006). Systems Thinking for Foresight, PhD Thesis,
PREST, University of Manchester.
Ozcan Saritas
26
Sept 24, 2009
Bucharest
MLW1 – Systems Thinking for Foresight
End of presentation..
Dr. Ozcan Saritas
[email protected]
Ozcan Saritas
27
Sept 24, 2009
Bucharest