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SAMI Consulting Robust decisions in uncertain times What forces will change our world? A commentary Dr Chris Yapp www.samiconsulting.co.uk 1 OK… Let’s be cynical Robust decisions in uncertain times • Where’s my personal jet pack? • .COM bubble, 2008 Crash…. • Self-driving cars …. Flying cars (remember them?) • The End is nigh! Club of Rome 1973 • 1980 The New Ice Age! • The “Cure for Cancer” www.samiconsulting.co.uk 2 What we think we know Robust decisions in uncertain times • From the forces deck • • • • Key Trends Discontinuities Roadblocks Events – Demographics – West to East – Environment & Resources – Technology – Globalisation • The Future is faster! www.samiconsulting.co.uk 3 A trend is your friend ---------- until it bends Robust decisions in uncertain times • Population – – – – – – – – • Technology Ageing Arab Spring Women’s rights Diaspora Chinese migration Resource Wars Education and skills Obesity – R&D Productivity eg Pharma – New materials: Architecture – 3D Printing – Energy Security – Internet of Things www.samiconsulting.co.uk 4 When trends interact? Robust decisions in uncertain times • Life expectancy is increasing 1 year every decade • New Science will extend life spans • Obesity is lowering life expectations • Long-term conditions will become more manageable • Retirement and the Pensions Crisis? • Life expectancy gap widening across social classes • Ageing population with rising schools rolls www.samiconsulting.co.uk 5 Interaction between Technology and Society Robust decisions in uncertain times • • • • • • • Social values Open and Closed? Institutional maturity Legal Frameworks Regulation Jurisdiction War and instability “The Stone Age didn’t finish because we ran out of stones” Sheik Yamani www.samiconsulting.co.uk 6 What we tend to overlook Robust decisions in uncertain times • • • • Events: The next Los Angeles Earthquake How many countries in 2050? Religion… How many companies from 1993 are still around?. How many of today’s will exist in 2033? www.samiconsulting.co.uk 7 The dinosaurs died out… Robust decisions in uncertain times “ There are only 66 institutions in the West that have survived since the 1600s without fundamental changes to their mission and structure: these are The Parliament of Iceland The Parliament of the Isle of Man The Catholic Church The Lutheran Church and 62 Universities” www.samiconsulting.co.uk 8 Electronic Publishing Robust decisions in uncertain times Market Impact The Third Horizon Vannevar Bush Memex 1930 1940 Publishers? Bookstores? … ETed Nelson commerce iTUNES App Stores Arpanet Internet WWW Tablet Surface Micropayments Windows eReaders ePUB Nexus Hypertext Gutenberg Apple eBook Kindle iPAD 1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 www.samiconsulting.co.uk 2020 9 Reasons to be Optimistic Robust decisions in uncertain times • 2013 – 60th Anniversary of DNA structure – 40th Anniversary of Arpanet in Europe – 300th Anniversary of the death of Edward Lloyd – New waves of sciences and technologies arriving in next decade www.samiconsulting.co.uk 10