Transcript Slide 1
Here be Dragons Robust decisions in uncertain times • Navigating an Uncertain World • A book in two parts – The Columbus Project – A Pilots Guide • A webinar with the authors – Gill Ringland, Patricia Lustig, Rob Phaal, Martin Duckworth, Chris Yapp 7/20/2015 www.samiconsulting.co.uk 1 Why we wrote the book Robust decisions in uncertain times • After “Beyond Crisis” it became clear that – There is no return to Business as Usual – Most organisations are facing organisational renewal – We needed to help people see how to get started • The tool kit needed fleshing out • This webinar will focus on the Pilots Guide – the toolkit – and use The Columbus Project for examples • The Columbus Project follows a fictional organisation – FutureParts – on their journey of renewal. 7/20/2015 www.samiconsulting.co.uk 2 The Journey: from Robust decisions in uncertain times Traditional hierarchy Efficiency Asset allocation Ad hoc activities, lobbying etc Effective at renewal ? Present and future operating environment 7/20/2015 ©2009 Ringland, Sparrow, Lustig www.samiconsulting.co.uk 3 The Journey: to Robust decisions in uncertain times Traditional hierarchy Efficiency Asset allocation Planning and ensuring that the renewal machinery works Effective at renewal Present and future operating environment 7/20/2015 ©2009 Ringland, Sparrow, Lustig www.samiconsulting.co.uk 4 The Cycle of Renewal Robust decisions in uncertain times Road maps Policy and strategy Innovation Asset allocation Audit of Organisational capability insight Horizon scanning 7/20/2015 ©2009 Ringland, Sparrow, Lustig Organisational & leadership development Scenarios Review Narrative www.samiconsulting.co.uk 5 Organisational insight Robust decisions in uncertain times Tricia Lustig 7/20/2015 www.samiconsulting.co.uk 6 The Cycle of Renewal Robust decisions in uncertain times Audit of Organisational capability insight 7/20/2015 ©2009 Ringland, Sparrow, Lustig www.samiconsulting.co.uk 7 Five Qualities for renewal Robust decisions in uncertain times • Values – the organisation’s values are not always explicit and are slow to change • Narrative – what stories does the organisation tell and how does it describe itself? • Insight - how does the organisation make sense of the internal capability and external world? • Options – how dos the organisation decide where to invest? • Machinery – are the culture, processes and people in place to support renewal? 7/20/2015 www.samiconsulting.co.uk 8 Horizon scanning Robust decisions in uncertain times Martin Duckworth 7/20/2015 www.samiconsulting.co.uk 9 The Cycle of Renewal Robust decisions in uncertain times Audit of Organisational capability audit Horizon scanning 7/20/2015 ©2009 Ringland, Sparrow, Lustig www.samiconsulting.co.uk 10 Range of Objectives Robust decisions in uncertain times Less detail • Trying not to miss the obvious • An external (fresh) perspective • Evidence of change • Evidence of new trends • Seeking early indicators of change More detail 7/20/2015 www.samiconsulting.co.uk 11 Chain of cause and effect Robust decisions in uncertain times DRIVER PRESSURE STATE IMPACT RESPONSE 7/20/2015 www.samiconsulting.co.uk 12 Three Horizons Robust decisions in uncertain times PROMINENCE OF DRIVER Horizon 1: Analysis Horizon 2: Exploration Horizon 3: Imagination TIME NOW 7/20/2015 LOOKING AHEAD www.samiconsulting.co.uk DISTANT FUTURE 13 Scenarios Robust decisions in uncertain times Gill Ringland 7/20/2015 www.samiconsulting.co.uk 14 The Cycle of Renewal Robust decisions in uncertain times Audit of Organisational capability insight Scenarios Horizon scanning 7/20/2015 ©2009 Ringland, Sparrow, Lustig www.samiconsulting.co.uk 15 Global population Robust decisions in uncertain times www.samiconsulting.co.uk 16 Forecasts Robust decisions in uncertain times Forecasts are over-precise Today Scenarios explore the range of uncertainties Trends Timing ? www.samiconsulting.co.uk 17 Scenarios Robust decisions in uncertain times GDP, Population, etc Range of forecasts Scenario space spans the uncertainties Time 7/20/2015 C SAMI Consulting 2010 www.samiconsulting.co.uk 18 Innovation Robust decisions in uncertain times Dr Chris Yapp 7/20/2015 www.samiconsulting.co.uk 19 The Cycle of Renewal Robust decisions in uncertain times Innovation Audit of Organisational capability insight Scenarios Horizon scanning 7/20/2015 ©2009 Ringland, Sparrow, Lustig www.samiconsulting.co.uk 20 Roadmaps Robust decisions in uncertain times Rob Phaal 7/20/2015 www.ifm.eng.cam.ac.uk 23 The Cycle of Renewal Robust decisions in uncertain times Roadmaps Innovation Audit of Organisational capability insight Scenarios Horizon scanning 7/20/2015 ©2009 Ringland, Sparrow, Lustig www.samiconsulting.co.uk 24 Strategic alignment Robust decisions in uncertain times Time Market & Business Why do we need to act? Product, Services & Systems What should we do? Technology, Capabilities & Resources How can we do it? Where are we now? 7/20/2015 How can we get there? www.ifm.eng.cam.ac.uk Where do we want to go? 25 Strategy and innovation Robust decisions in uncertain times 7/20/2015 www.ifm.eng.cam.ac.uk 26 Dialogue and consensus Robust decisions in uncertain times 7/20/2015 www.ifm.eng.cam.ac.uk 27 Making it happen Robust decisions in uncertain times Tricia Lustig 7/20/2015 www.samiconsulting.co.uk 28 The Cycle of Renewal Robust decisions in uncertain times Road maps Policy and strategy Innovation Asset allocation Audit of Organisational capability insight Horizon scanning 7/20/2015 ©2009 Ringland, Sparrow, Lustig Organisational & leadership development Scenarios Review Narrative www.samiconsulting.co.uk 29 Charles Handy on Change Robust decisions in uncertain times Performance B E A C D Time 7/20/2015 www.samiconsulting.co.uk 30 Foxes and Hedgehogs Robust decisions in uncertain times 7/20/2015 www.samiconsulting.co.uk 31 The Journey: to Robust decisions in uncertain times Traditional hierarchy Efficiency Asset allocation Planning and ensuring that the renewal machinery works Effective at renewal Present and future operating environment 7/20/2015 ©2009 Ringland, Sparrow, Lustig www.samiconsulting.co.uk 32