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SAMI Consulting Robust decisions in uncertain times Scenarios in a Partnership Future Perspectives at Grant Thornton June 2014 Workshop: Developments in Scenario Planning www.samiconsulting.co.uk 1 Role of consultants Robust decisions in uncertain times • Process design • Introduction to/training in use of tools • Technology transfer • Specialist skills www.samiconsulting.co.uk 2 Strategy cycle Robust decisions in uncertain times • Taking the drivers of change and creating mental models which combine both the forecastable elements and expose the big questions • Starting with the March Workshop and going through to the Partners Conference in May Sense Making Setting Priorities Strategic Intelligence Implementation • Horizon scanning, interviews, research, Jam inputs leading to a list of up to 20 drivers of change • The hard bit starts here! www.samiconsulting.co.uk 3 Board awareness Robust decisions in uncertain times • Taking the drivers of change and creating mental models which combine both the forecastable elements and expose the big questions • Starting with the March Workshop and going through to the Partners Conference in May Sense Making Setting Priorities Strategic Intelligence Implementation • Horizon scanning, interviews, research, Jam inputs leading to a list of up to 20 drivers of change • The hard bit starts here! Board awareness www.samiconsulting.co.uk 4 Board engagement Robust decisions in uncertain times www.samiconsulting.co.uk 5 Strategic Intelligence Robust decisions in uncertain times • • • • • • • Process leading to 14 key drivers Deck of cards Role of Three Horizons tool Role of programme support Interviews & role of Panels Desk research Use of intranet • Horizon scanning, interviews, research, Jam inputs leading to a list of up to 20 drivers of change www.samiconsulting.co.uk 6 Three Horizons: Mindsets Robust decisions in uncertain times MANAGER Eg, MUSIC, MOVIES, CDs, DVDs 17/07/2015 ENTREPRENEUR Eg., MUSIC, MOVIES – transformational disruptor - iTunes www.samiconsulting.co.uk VISIONARY Eg, MUSIC, MOVIES – paradigm buster Napster 7 Key Role of Panels Robust decisions in uncertain times • Each led by “emerging” partner • 6 members including future leaders – New graduate – High flyer • Each Panel had to complete 6-10 interviews using 7 Questions – Insiders, outsiders/clients, futurists – Outsiders reacted very positively – Panel members pleasantly surprised! www.samiconsulting.co.uk 8 Sense making Robust decisions in uncertain times • Scenario workshop – Participants – NLB + Panels + LOB leaders – Style – workshop – 7 groups – Input – 14 key drivers – Outputs • Writing up the scenarios – Naming the scenarios www.samiconsulting.co.uk • Taking the drivers of change and creating mental models which combine both the forecastable elements and expose the big questions 9 The scenario matrix Robust decisions in uncertain times Incorporate in scenarios and track for the business plan Scenarios built from drivers in this box plus trends These trends form part of the back story of the scenarios These could be really disruptive, to be watched Uncertain Forecastable Important Less important www.samiconsulting.co.uk 10 Key Role of Panels Robust decisions in uncertain times • All Panel members took part in Scenario Workshop • Testing the scenarios – Panel members took scenarios out to test with 3 groups of public, e.g. • • • • • Groups of schoolchildren Women’s Institute NFU branch Investment clubs etc www.samiconsulting.co.uk 11 Setting priorities Robust decisions in uncertain times • Using the scenario to wind-tunnel strategies – Participants in the workshop – NLB + LOB leaders + Panel Chairs – Style – 4 groups – Inputs - scenarios • Starting with the – Outputs – portfolio of options March Workshop and going through to the Partners Conference in May www.samiconsulting.co.uk 12 Process Robust decisions in uncertain times Brainstorm Calibrate Options Options Robust decisions in uncertain times Familiar Unfamiliar Uncertain Current contribution Mature in 2-5 years Mature in 5+ years Implementation Robust decisions in uncertain times • Future Perspectives session at May Partners’ Conference – top 120 of 4,700 staff – Used scenarios in relation to client case studies in workshop mode • Use scenarios with clients – Building on strong interest from interviews • The hard bit starts here! – And from testing workshops • Use to steer internal priorities www.samiconsulting.co.uk 15 For more..... Robust decisions in uncertain times If you would like to get our monthly enewsletter eSAMI ---- please go to www.samiconsulting.co.uk. Follow us on the SAMI blog, http://samiconsulting.wordpress.com/ Or latest book follows on from “Beyond Crisis” and is called “Here be Dragons” – for details see www.samiconsulting.co.uk. And we run Futures Coaching for the UK Government Office for Science, see www.samiconsulting.co.uk. www.samiconsulting.co.uk 16