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SAMI Consulting, St Andrews Management Institute Robust decisions in uncertain times Scenario Planning And IT Decision Making Dr Chris Yapp [email protected] IT Decisions Conference June 2011 7/7/2015 www.samiconsulting.co.uk 1 SAMI Robust decisions in uncertain times • Our offer – To enhance the capability to anticipate – To transform emergent thinking into strategy and implementation – Consulting, executive education and research to deliver “robust decisions in uncertain times” • “You can never plan the future by the past” – Edmund Burke, 1729-1797 7/7/2015 www.samiconsulting.co.uk 2 Who we are Robust decisions in uncertain times • Formed in 1989 – Until 1999 based at St Andrews University – Now virtual, owned by University & Fellows – Celebrated our 20th anniversary at the Royal Society • People: – 8 Fellows, – Director level experience in major organisations, public and private sectors, – Consult, teach & write on business, policy, strategy and futures, leadership; – 7 Principals, – Senior experience in major organisations, public and private sectors, – Experts in aspects of futures, strategic planning and organisational development – Also 46 Associates with specialist expertise eg – Sectors: oil & gas, ICT, FS, construction, government, health, NGOs – Functional specialists: innovation, creative spaces, audio-visual communication, occupational psychology, reconfiguration ----- 7/7/2015 www.samiconsulting.co.uk 3 Futures Thinking Robust decisions in uncertain times • • • • • Contingency planning Scenarios Systems thinking Complexity theory Ethnographic Futures July 15 www.samiconsulting.co.uk 4 Imagine 2011 in 1981 Robust decisions in uncertain times • Technology – – – – – – – WWW Mobile Phones iPOD/PAD/Phone DAB DTT,HDTV,3DTV Wii,Xbox360,PS3 BUT AI?, VideoConf?, Concorde 2,Bullet trains, FTTH,Flying cars… • What about – Chelsea FC owned by a Russian – BRICs – Global Terrorism – Climate Change – Bollywood – HIV/AIDS My Experience over 30 years Robust decisions in uncertain times • 20% will happen as consensus • 15% will happen but slower than consensus • 5% will happen faster than consensus • 15% will be superceded before it happens • 10% stalls/disappoints • 20% just doesn’t happen • 15% is off Radar 7/7/2015 www.samiconsulting.co.uk 6 Three Horizons Robust decisions in uncertain times Repeating Problems Robust decisions in uncertain times • • • • Standards Wars WIIFM Infrastructure lags Long-term capacity developments July 15 www.samiconsulting.co.uk 8 What type of future? Robust decisions in uncertain times • • • • • Desired ( my plan) Desirable ( Plan B) Plausible ( time to rethink?) Consensus ( my contrarian plan) Unpleasant ( don’t want to go there) July 15 www.samiconsulting.co.uk 9 Beware… Robust decisions in uncertain times • • • • • • Modern Myths This time it’s different… Putting New in front of everything.. Everything has a history Revolution or cohort effects Roadblocks (IPv6?) Unpicking Assumptions Robust decisions in uncertain times “The problem is that companies just don’t get Web 2.0. The benefits are out there and the tools are cheap. Planning is expensive and wasteful. Get on with realising the benefits” A Social Media guru July 15 • While at the same time... • Predicted 100% compound growth for 5 years • All existing services would still be there and free • Values of today’s teenagers would still be their values in 10 years • Governments wouldn’t regulate... www.samiconsulting.co.uk 11 1066 and All That Right Robust decisions in uncertain times Roundheads Cavaliers Wrong Repulsive July 15 www.samiconsulting.co.uk Romantic 12 The Futurists Dilemma Robust decisions in uncertain times High Credibility Focussed Theme ? Broad Vision Low Credibility Wrong July 15 www.samiconsulting.co.uk Right 13 Dimensions of the Current Challenge Robust decisions in uncertain times Economic Change structural Market Step Change Niche Portfolio Reactive Proactive Strategic Response Sitting Tight July 15 Mopping up cyclical www.samiconsulting.co.uk 14 Dynamics of the Current Challenge Robust decisions in uncertain times Economic Change structural Market Step Change Niche Portfolio Reactive Proactive Strategic Response Sitting Tight July 15 Mopping up cyclical www.samiconsulting.co.uk 15 Problem Types Robust decisions in uncertain times YES Scaling practice Do we know where We are going? Best practice TASK: Operational Management TASK: Process Development NO YES TASK: Direction Setting TASK: Concept Creation Next practice Emerging practice NO July 15 Do we know How to get There? www.samiconsulting.co.uk After Eddie Obeng 16 Whose Problem? High Robust decisions in uncertain times Political System Complexity Think Tank Consultant Wisdom of The Crowds Academic /Expert Low Low Uncertainty July 15 www.samiconsulting.co.uk High 17 What value? High Robust decisions in uncertain times Political System Complexity Think Tank Track record Ideas Consultant Knowledge Wisdom of The Crowds Academic /Expert Low Low Uncertainty July 15 www.samiconsulting.co.uk High 18 During Step Change? High Robust decisions in uncertain times Political System Complexity Think Tank Consultant Consultancy squeezed as limited track record Wisdom of The Crowds Academic /Expert Low Low Uncertainty July 15 www.samiconsulting.co.uk High 19 Timing Robust decisions in uncertain times “In the Future blind People will Be able to drive cars” July 15 www.samiconsulting.co.uk 20 Results Robust decisions in uncertain times • • • • Probability 0.9 with some 0.2 Today with Resources: 1-3 years In practice: 3-10 years In reality: 10-100 years July 15 www.samiconsulting.co.uk 21 Why do we get it wrong? Robust decisions in uncertain times • • • • • • • • Today!!! Prisoners of Language Timing Unintended consequences Sources of Innovation Ask the wrong question/people? Culture Events July 15 www.samiconsulting.co.uk 22 Not understanding today… Robust decisions in uncertain times • • • • Societies taboos Bubbles Poor data for emerging trends Examples – Police – Paedophiles – Education – International/global interconnectivity July 15 www.samiconsulting.co.uk 23 Timing Robust decisions in uncertain times • • • • • Inevitability-Predictability Risk and uncertainty Unforseen barriers Social factors Long-term skill developments July 15 www.samiconsulting.co.uk 24 Sources of Innovation Robust decisions in uncertain times Manufacturer Active Process User Active process Source: Eric Von Hippel, MIT Innovation Robust decisions in uncertain times • Open Innovation has a 200 year history • Innovation with lead users preceded the internet • Professional solve their own problems • Big shift in computing is that consumers not industry in the driving seat. A Rose by any other name.. Robust decisions in uncertain times • Bouba • Kiki July 15 www.samiconsulting.co.uk 27 Learning from the edge: Synesthesia Robust decisions in uncertain times July 15 www.samiconsulting.co.uk 28 Prisoners of Language Robust decisions in uncertain times • • • • • 1,000,000 cars People will always want shoes Classroom of the Future Library with no books 5 Computers July 15 www.samiconsulting.co.uk 29 Who do you ask? Robust decisions in uncertain times “ What do you teach a child at 5 years old So that they will be IT Literate at 20? July 15 www.samiconsulting.co.uk 30 Core to the problem.. Robust decisions in uncertain times • • • • The different disciplines involved The hardware doesn’t exist The software hasn’t been written Some of the key companies haven’t yet been formed So who do you ask? July 15 www.samiconsulting.co.uk 31 Organisational culture Robust decisions in uncertain times • • • • • Specialists and generalists Personal credibility Tolerance of uncertainty Story telling Leadership July 15 www.samiconsulting.co.uk 32 Events Robust decisions in uncertain times • • • • 9/11 BSE Coalition Government Middle East: Tunisia, Egypt...... • BLACK SWANS July 15 www.samiconsulting.co.uk 33 Uncertainties Today Robust decisions in uncertain times • Web 2.0 bubble? • IPv4 to IPv6 transition • Sustainability of Free/Freemium.. • Impact of Regulation, e.g. EU • Privacy, security • Business models? • Interdependencies... July 15 • IPR regimes • Everything has a history...? • Demographics.... • Energy Security • Public/Private Clouds www.samiconsulting.co.uk 34 Overoptimism or hype? Robust decisions in uncertain times www.samiconsulting.co.uk Hofstadter’s Law Robust decisions in uncertain times It always takes longer than you expect, even when you take into account Hofstadter's Law www.samiconsulting.co.uk 07/07/2015 36 Robust decisions in uncertain times THANK YOU! Any Questions? My BCS blog: http://www.bcs.org/content/conBlog/20 Twitter: @chris_yapp July 15 www.samiconsulting.co.uk 37