Transcript Slide 1

SADC VULNERABILITY ASSESSMENT & ANALYSIS
SYNTHESIS REPORT
Senior Officials’ Dissemination Forum for 2013
The Crowne Plaza, The Rosebank Hotel, Johannesburg,
South Africa. 31 July 2013
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Outline of the Presentation
1.
2.
3.
4.
5.
6.
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Introduction/objectives
Overview of 2012/13 rainfall season
Performance of the 2012/13 agricultural
season
Outlook of the 2013/14 agricultural
marketing year.
Findings of 2013/14 food security and
vulnerability assessments
Main conclusions and recommendations
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Introduction

Main objectives:
 Share and disseminate information from the national and
regional vulnerability assessments for the 2013/14
marketing year.

Specific objectives
 To disseminate identified threats and opportunities for
food security and vulnerability during the 2013/14
marketing year
 To highlight the depth and levels of food insecurity and
vulnerability in the Region for the 2013/14 marketing year.
 To discuss and endorse actionable recommendations to
address food insecurity and vulnerability in the Region.
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Overview of the 2012/13 Rainfall Season
Late onset of rains, dry spells, armyworm
infestation and torrential rains/flooding affected
several parts of the region
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4
Late start of the season in several areas, particularly in the
central and southern parts of the Region.
Prolonged dry spell in southern half of the Region
negatively affected production in Angola, Botswana,
Malawi, Namibia, South Africa, Tanzania, Zambia and
Zimbabwe.
Armyworm infestation that started in December 2012
affected Botswana, Namibia, Lesotho, Malawi, South Africa,
Tanzania, Zambia and Zimbabwe, with varying impacts.
Excessive rains, water logging and/or flooding was
experienced in Botswana, Madagascar, Malawi, Mauritius,
Mozambique, Seychelles, South Africa, Zambia, and
Zimbabwe.
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Overview of the 2012/13 Rainfall Season…cont.
Percentage of Average Rainfall
Oct –Dec 2012
•
•
Late onset of rains in several areas
leading to reduced crop cycle length.
Erratic below normal rains leading to
early season crop failure and
replanting.
Jan - Mar 2013
•
•
Torrential rains and cyclones leading
to flooding and waterlogging.
Prolonged dry conditions lead to
reduced yields and poor pasture.
Performance of the 2012/13 agricultural season
Despite the various weather related challenges
experienced during 2012/13 season, Regional cereal
harvest increased slightly, by 0.2%, from 35.02 million
tonnes in 2012 to 35.11 million tonnes in 2013 and is 5%
above the average of the last five years;
Compared to 2012 harvest, all countries except
Botswana, Namibia, South Africa, Zambia and Zimbabwe
experienced increases in cereal production;
Production of non-cereal food crops (roots and tuber
crops, bananas, plantains and pulses) continue to
increase in countries such as DRC, Malawi, Mozambique
and Zambia.
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Performance of the 2012/13 agricultural season….
Cereal Crop Production (‘000 tonnes)
Country
Angola
Botswana
DRC
Lesotho
Malawi
Mauritius
Mozambique*
Namibia
RSA
Swaziland
Tanzania**
Zambia
Zimbabwe
SADC***
2008
738
43
1473
72
2989
2
1486
106
15550
62
5587
1640
628
30376
2009
1053
56
1473
72
3993
2
1702
111
14855
71
5265
2197
1557
32407
2010
1178
55
1474
172
3610
2
1709
155
15094
75
6940
3096
1569
35129
2011
1409
62
1475
103
4121
2
1832
117
13579
84
6787
3363
1656
34590
2012
506
53
1474
58
3838
2
2176
166
14794
76
7558
3197
1123
35021
5-Year
Average
(2008 – 2012)
977
54
1474
95
3710
2
1781
131
14774
74
6427
2699
1307
33505
2013
940
45
1476
106
3894
2
2218
81
14104
82
8314
2890
953
35105
*Mozambique figures from 2009 to 2011 are an extrapolation
**2013 figures for Tanzania are provisional estimates
*** Excluding Madagascar and Seychelles
Source: SADC National & Regional Early Warning Systems for Food Security
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2013
prodn 2013 vs
vs 5 - yr 2012
average harvest
-4%
-16%
0%
11%
5%
0%
25%
-38%
-5%
11%
29%
7%
-27%
5%
86%
-15%
0%
83%
1%
0%
2%
-51%
-5%
8%
10%
-10%
-15%
0.2%
Summary of cereal production 2012/13
Country
Angola
Prod (MT)
Change (vs
2011/12)
% Change (vs
2011/12)
Crop
% change (vs
5 yr avg)
940,000
+86
Cereals
-4
45,362
-15
Cereals
- 16
1,476,352
+ 0.1
Cereals
+ 0.1
Lesotho
106,152
+ 84
Cereals
+11
Malawi
3,893,636
+ 1.5
Cereals
+5
0
Cereals
0
2,218,109
+2
Cereals
+25
81,080
- 51
Cereals
-38
14,103,959
-5
Cereals
-5
81,934
+ 7.7
Cereals
+11
Tanzania
8,314,000
+10
Cereals
+29
Zambia
2,890,045
- 9.6
Cereals
+7
953,000
-15.1
Cereals
-27.1
Botswana
D.R. Congo
Madagascar
Mauritius
Mozambique
Namibia
2
Seychelles
South Africa
Swaziland
Zimbabwe
Summary of Roots/Tubers production
Country
Prod (MT)
Change (vs
2011/12)
% Change (vs
2011/12)
Crop
Angola
Botswana
D.R. Congo
15,508,271
+0.2
Cassava, Sweet Potato and
yams
9,589,234
+4.4
Cassava, Sweet Potato, Potato
8,434,182
+2.7
Cassava, Irish and sweet potato
4,668,724
+1.0
Cassava, Irish and sweet potato
Lesotho
Malawi
Madagascar
Mauritius
Mozambique
Namibia
Seychelles
South Africa
Swaziland
Tanzania
Zambia
Summary of Legumes production
Country
Prod (MT) Change (vs % Change
2011/12)
(vs 2011/12)
Crop
Angola
Botswana
D.R. Congo
612,181
+1.6
Legumes
660,655
+13.6
Pulses
345,000
+15.8
Beans
58,580
+22.8
Dry beans
Lesotho
Malawi
Madagascar
Mauritius
Mozambique
Namibia
Seychelles
South Africa
Swaziland
Tanzania
Zambia
Summary of Oilseeds production
Country
Prod (MT)
Change (vs
2011/12)
% Change (vs Crops
2011/12)
Angola
Botswana
D.R. Congo
Lesotho
Malawi
497,764
+5.5
Soyabean, Groundnut
271,579
+2.8
Sunflower, Soyabean, Groundnuts
+14.9
Sunflower, Soya, G/nut, Sesame
Madagascar
Mauritius
Mozambique
Namibia
Seychelles
South Africa
Swaziland
Tanzania
Zambia
Zimbabwe
1,414,650
Regional Cereal Production Trend: 2008 - 2013
(’000 tonnes)
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Overview of the 2013/14 Marketing Year:
Cereal Balance
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The Region has recorded an overall cereal deficit of
4.01 million tonnes compared to a deficit of 3.98
million tonnes in 2012/13 marketing year;
All countries except Malawi, Tanzania, South Africa
and Zambia have recorded cereal deficits;
With regards to the Region’s main staple, maize, a
surplus of 326,000 tonnes has been estimated;
On individual country basis, maize surpluses have
been recorded in Malawi, South Africa, Tanzania and
Zambia; and
All other cereal crops (wheat, rice, millet and
sorghum) indicate deficits
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All Cereals Balance Sheets for 2012/13
Marketing Year (‘000 tonnes)
Ang Bot Les Mal Mau Moz Nam RSA Swa Tan Zam Zim SADC
A. Domestic Availability
A.1 Opening Stocks
Formal/SGR
1001 76 160 3897
7 2436
94 16598 86 8495 3522 1465 37838
61 31 54
3
5 218
13 2494
5 181 632 512 4209
52 30 52
0
5 137
13 2494
5
80 632 512 4012
On Farm
9
0
3
1
0
81
0
0
0 101
0
0 195
Other
0
0
0
2
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
A.2 Gross Harvest
940 45 106 3894
2 2218
0
2
81 14104 82 8314 2890 953 33629
B. Gross Domestic Requirements 2406 420 405 3542 308 3808 268 14773 166 7581 2436 2389 38502
C. Desired SGR Carryover Stocks 24 85
D. Domestic Shortfall/Surplus
14
0
50 10
0
35 1782
-1429 -429 -245 305 -311 -1372 -210
8 150 500 700 3345
44 -88 764 586 -1624 -4009
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Regional cereal balance sheet by crop during
2013/14 marketing year (‘000 tonnes)
Millet/
All
Maize
Wheat
A. Domestic Availability
30135
3317
2311
2074
37838
32774
A.1 Opening Stocks
2582
969
530
128
4209
168
Formal/SGR
2490
968
478
75
4012
0
92
0
52
51
195
168
0
0
0
2
2
27553
2348
1781
1947
33629
32605
B. Gross Domestic Requirements
27437
5123
2803
3139
38502
16516
C. Desired SGR Carryover Stocks
2372
882
13
77
3345
0
326
-2688
-505
-1142
-4009
16257
On Farm
Other
A.2 Gross Harvest
D. Domestic Shortfall/Surplus
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Rice Sorghum Cereals Cassava
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0
Maize Balance Sheet for 2012/13 Marketing
Year (‘000 tonnes)
Ang Bot Les Mal Mau Moz Nam RSA Swa Tan Zam Zim SADC
A. Domestic Availability
A.1 Opening Stocks
895 18 106 3640
7 1671 42 13487 82 5894 2988 1309 30135
3
3 19
0
2
40
2 1417
0 130 455
511 2582
Formal/SGR
3
3 18
0
2
0
2 1417
0
80 455
511 2490
On Farm
0
0
2
0
0
40
0
0
0
50
0
0
92
Other
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
A.2 Gross Harvest
892 15 86 3640
2 1631 40 12070 82 5764 2533
799 27553
B. Gross Domestic Requirements1590 207 258 3321 86 2273 149 10647 116 4894 2034 1860 27437
C. Desired SGR Carryover Stocks 10 40
D. Domestic Shortfall/Surplus
16
0
50
0
0 10 1108
4 150 500
500 2372
-705 -229 -153 269 -82 -603 -117 1732 -38 850 454 -1051 326
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Outlook of the 2013/14 Marketing Year:
Maize Prices
Price trends and prospects for 2013/14 marketing year:
 Maize prices in the four major maize producing countries
(Malawi, South Africa, Tanzania and Zambia) are currently
declining, although at slightly higher levels compared to same
time last year;
 In contrast, International prices of maize (US Yellow) are
currently increasing with levels above those recorded in the
Region except Tanzania;
 The declining trend in the Region is, however, likely to be shortlived due to the deficits experienced in many countries in the
Region and also in line with increasing global prices;
 The increase in global price trend is attributed to tightening
export supplies and concern over planting delays in the US.
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Outlook of the 2008 - 2013 : Maize Prices
Source: FEWSNET, Southern Africa
Food Security and Vulnerability Analysis
(Definitions and approach)
Food security
 In this analysis food security is defined as a state where all people at
all times have both physical and economic access to sufficient food
to meet their dietary needs for a productive and healthy life
Vulnerability
 Inability of people or households to cope with a defined hazard or
shock.
Approaches used to determine vulnerability to food insecurity
 The analysis that has been used to determine the food insecure
populations is based on the livelihoods approach which takes into
account all the means by which households obtain and maintain
access to food and other essential resources to ensure their
immediate and long-term survival. These include crop and livestock
production and sales, labour, remittances etc.
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Findings of 2013 Vulnerability Assessments

The 2013 vulnerability assessments indicates that about 14 million people are at risk of
food insecurity in the Region for the 2013/14 marketing year.
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Compared to last year, the total number of food insecure population in the region has
increased in all countries except Lesotho, Malawi and Mozambique.
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The regional food insecure population is up 19% compared to last year for the 10
countries that have comparable data.
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Compared with last year, the biggest increases in the number of food insecure
populations has been recorded in Namibia (11 fold increase), followed by Zambia (233%)
and Swaziland (151%).
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Some of the affected areas have remained the same for a long period indicating chronic
vulnerability and high levels of poverty
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The percentage of food insecure population as a percentage of the total rural population
is exceptionally high in Botswana and Namibia at almost 49% and 48% respectively. For
Botswana, it must be noted though that the majority of the food insecure are facing a
livelihood deficit rather than survival deficit that would require humanitarian assistance.

Child malnutrition levels, especially stunting which is a sign of chronic food and nutrition
insecurity are high to very high in the Region. This indicates higher vulnerability of
children to shocks such as drought, floods, food price increases etc. that some countries
in20Region are facing.
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Trends in food insecure population in the Region
Country
2003/04
2004/05
2005/06
2006/07
2007/08
2008/09
2009/10
2010/11
2011/12
2012/13
367 190
Angola
2012/13 vs
2013/14 2013/14
700 000
91%
372 479
Botswana
Lesotho
270 000
541 000
245 700
553 000
353 000
450 000
200 000
514 000
725 519
223 055
Malawi
400 000 1 340 000 5 055 000
833 000
63 234
613 291
275 168
508 089
272 502
1 972 993
1 461 940
Mozambique
659 000
801 655
240 000
520 000
302 664
281 300
350 000
245 000
270 000
212 000
17%
-69%
-26%
-21%
224 795
42 100
243 474
74 711
778 504
942%
13 050 828 11 012 940 9 675 590 7 016 457 6 659 466 7 855 673
7 867 488
7 879 302
6 542 250
6922099 4 322 413
DRC
948 300
108 203
Namibia
South
Africa*
Swaziland
Tanzania**
Zimbabwe
SADC
5 445 000
6 356 722
217 000
600 400
634 400
465 900
345 000
238 600
262 000
160 989
88 511
115 713
289 920
151%
1 941 701
688 360
850 023 4 418 503
216 142
425 313
1 849 497
1 141 214
1 618 795
1 472 127
1 615 445
380 537
440 866
444 624
110 000
53 629
74 804
62 842
209 498
5 422 600 2 300 000 2 884 800 1 392 500 4 100 000 5 100 000
1 400 000
1 287 937
1 390 000
1 668 000
2 206 924
10%
233%
32%
19%
60 000
Zambia
5860872 4 300 000
39 300 1 232 661
22 021 129 17 037 503 21 675 129 14 992 597 12 897 708 22 255 264 17 042 661 17 484 132 15 289 336 12 174 095 14 426 487
Angola: The assesment was done in six provinces in the South.
*Mozambique: This year’s assessment was only done in the flood affected areas of Gaza Province.
**South Africa figures for 2012 will be released end of July 2013. Affected population includes both rural and urban. 2009/10 figure is just an extrapolation.
***Tanzania 2013 figures are for the first rains only, second assessment for the second rains will be out in September
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Food Insecure Population vs Total rural
Population in 2013
Country
Affected Population
Angola
Total rural
Population
Affected Population (%)
700 000
8 347 740
8%
Botswana
DRC
Lesotho
372 479
6 356 722
223 055
756 424
42 819 352
1 470 945
49%
15%
15%
Malawi
1 461 940
13 260 638
11%
Mozambique
212 000
16 726 555
1%
Namibia
778 504
1 638 400
48%
Swaziland
289 920
969 455
30%
1 617 418
34 783 330
5%
209 498
7 919 216
3%
2 206 924
8 849 522
25%
14 426 487
137 541 577
10%
Tanzania
Zambia
Zimbabwe
TOTAL
*NB – All the assessments were done in rural areas only.
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Food Insecure Population as a Percentage of
rural Population in 2013/14 marketing year
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Prevalence of malnutrition among children
under the age of five in the Region
 Nutrition status is a result of
complex interaction between
food consumption and the overall status of health and care
practices.
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Height-for-Age (Stunting) is an indicator of growth retardation and
cumulative growth deficits reflecting failure to receive adequate
nutrition over a long period of time.
Weight-for Height (Wasting) index represents failure to receive
adequate nutrition in the period immediately preceding a survey e.g.
growing season.
Weight-for-Age (Underweight) is a composite index of the above two
and reflects general nutrition status.
 About half the SADC Member States (DRC, Lesotho,
Malawi,
Mozambique, Tanzania, Zambia and Zimbabwe) high rates of
stunting (above 30% which is considered high by WHO
standards).
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Prevalence of malnutrition among children
under the age of five
50%
45%
40%
Stunting
rates
defined as
"high" from
30%
35%
30%
25%
20%
15%
10%
5%
0%
Source: Data presented by NVACs
Stunting
Underweight
Wasting
Summary of Household Coping Response
Mechanisms in affected areas
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Forgoing non-essential expenditures in order to purchase
food;
Out-migration to urban areas and abroad in search of
casual labour and employment opportunities;
Distress sale of livelihood assets (e.g. livestock) to buy
food and other essential items;
Reduction in number of meals, diversity and quality;
Increased reliance on social protection and safety nets;
Increased involvement in negative coping strategies, e.g.
substance abuse, prostitution and petty crime;
Increased reliance on social support networks, including
remittances.
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Main Conclusions
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Late onset and prolonged dry spells have resulted in
depressed crop production in many parts of the region;
SADC has a regional overall cereal deficit for the current
(2012/13) Marketing year, but with a small surplus in maize
alone;
More than 14 million people are at risk of food insecurity;
Among the total food insecure populations there are
populations that need immediate humanitarian assistance;
High rates of malnutrition (stunting – above 30%) still
persist in a number of countries indicating chronic food and
nutrition insecurity and this negatively impacts child growth
and development, long term rural transformation and
national economic growth
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Main Conclusions cont…
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
Lack of access to food and essential non-food items by
the very-poor and poor remain persistent– indications of
chronic vulnerability to poverty (poverty index above 50%
of population in most member states) ;
Countries implementing inputs support programmes
seem to have positive impacts on productivity and
production.
Although maize prices are beginning to show a declining
trend in some of the Member States, this might be shortlived due to the deficits experienced in many countries in
the region.
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Main Recommendations – Short Term
1.
2.
3.
4.
5.
Immediate humanitarian assistance (food, cash, agric. inputs
etc) is required in some areas that have been identified to have
populations experiencing acute food insecurity outcomes;
Intensify and up-scale the implementation of safety nets and
social protection programmes to address chronic vulnerability to
hunger, malnutrition and poverty;
Member States should scale up and prioritize the
implementation of nutrition policies, strategies and
programmes;
Enhance the coordination and harmonisation of response
planning, capacity development, monitoring and evaluation at
sub-national, national and regional levels;
Improved harvest and post harvest management, scaling up of
29appropriate crop storage facilities, food safety and processing.
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Main Recommendations – Short Term Cont…
6.
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Governments, cooperating partners and traders should procure
locally (in those countries with surpluses) and Regionally as one
way of promoting increased future production
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Main Recommendations – Medium to Long Term
1.
2.
3.
4.
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Member States should promote climate smart agriculture by
intensifying the implementation of existing policies and
strategies on smallholder irrigation technologies, water
harvesting technologies, conservation agriculture and
livestock;
Intensify crop and dietary diversity through the growing and
consumption of indigenous and non cereal crops, fish and
livestock products;
Develop lucrative and efficient agricultural value chains to
address the increasing numbers of market-dependent
consumers;
Enhance national and regional infrastructure development
for improved market access e.g. transport, storage and
communication
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Main Recommendations – Medium to Long Term…
Continued implementation of agricultural input programmes
but these should be market driven and take into account
local climatic conditions;
SADC Member States should facilitate harmonization of trade
policies to encourage inter-country trade;
Expedite adoption and operationalization of the regional
policy on strategic grain (financial) reserve;
Member States should incorporate disaster risk reduction
(preparedness, mitigation and adaptation) measures in
policies and programmes to improve resilience of
communities to climate variations
Accelerate domestication of the Regional Agricultural Policy;
4.
5.
6.
7.
8.
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Limitations and Challenges of Current
Assessments

Lack of up to date data on:

Livestock,
 Fisheries
 Nutrition
 Non cereal crop production
Current assessments limited to rural areas


Lack of adequate resources (financial and technical) to carry
out assessments
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THANK YOU
OBRIGADO
MERCI
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