Transcript Slide 1
SADC Food Security Update: September 2011
Overview of the Food Insecurity and Vulnerability in the SADC Region
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Overview of the Food Insecurity and
Vulnerability in the SADC Region
Outline
Overview
2010/11 rainfall season
Cereal production
Livestock production
Fish production
Staple food prices
Vulnerability assessment methodology
Findings of 2011 vulnerability assessments
Conclusions
Recommendations
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Overview of the 2010/11 Rainfall Season
1 Oct-31 Dec 2010
Below normal rainfall in the northern
areas, particularly northern Tanzania
Above normal rainfall in the southeastern parts of the region
1 Jan-31 Mar 2011
Above-normal rains in southern Angola and
northern Namibia, Zambia and Lesotho
Below normal rain in southern Malawi
southern and central Mozambique, southern
Zimbabwe, northern Zambia
Overview of the 2010/11 Rainfall Season cont.
Overall: normal to above normal rainfall in most parts
in the region
Specifically:
Late start of the season in many parts of the Southern Area
Prolonged dry spell in February 2011 in Eastern and Central
parts of the region resulting in yield losses (e.g. Southern
Malawi, parts of South and Central Mozambique, Southern
Zimbabwe, Swaziland and central South Africa
Excessive rains in the second half of the seasons in Southern
Angola Lesotho, South Africa and Northern Namibia
resulting in significant flooding, yield reduction due to
leaching, water logging and infrastructure damage
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Overview of the 2010/11 Season: Cereal production
Production (‘000 Tonnes) by Harvesting Year
2010 vs
Member
2011
States*
% increase/
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
decrease
Angola
886
671
734
738
1053
1178
676
-43%
Botswana
24
36
29
37
42
55
73
33%
Lesotho
120
136
78
88
86
137
73
-47%
Malawi
1336
2755
3616
2976
3834
3572
4121
15%
Mauritius
2
2
2
2
2
2
Mozambique
1899
2098
2168
2284
2526
2785
2912
5%
Namibia
154
179
116
116
116
135
117
-13%
South Africa
13615
9222
9292 15550 14855 15122 13122
-13%
Swaziland
67
67
47
64
71
75
85
13%
Tanzania
5015
5189
5448
5622
5265
7095
6787
-4%
Zambia
1065
1597
1537
1452
2182
3078
3346
9%
Zimbabwe
754
1663
1200
660
1561
1534
1701
11%
24937 23615 24267 29589 31593 34768 33013
-5%
SADC
*Exclude DRC, Madagascar and Seychelles which have not yet established National Early Warning Units
Source:
5 Member States and SADC Secretariat
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Overview of the 2010/11 Season: Cereal
production
Cereal production drops experienced in 5 countries Angola, Lesotho, Namibia, South Africa and Tanzania in
2011 compared to 2010.
Cereal production increases experienced in 6 countries Botswana, Malawi, Mozambique, Swaziland, Zambia and
Zimbabwe.
At SADC regional level, cereal production drops by 5%
between 2010 and 2011.
Despite the drop, the Region continues to depict a rising
trend in cereal production as shown in the graph below.
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Overview of the 2010/11 Season: Crop production
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Overview of the 2010/11 Season: Crop production cont...
Malawi, Tanzania and Zambia have also produced significant
quantities of non cereal crops including roots and tuber crops,
bananas, plantains and pulses.
Increases in cereal production in most Member States not
adequate to meet domestic requirements.
Only two countries (Zambia and Malawi) recorded cereal
surpluses.
Including roots and tuber crops Tanzania also has a food
production surplus.
About 5 million MT cereal deficit recorded at regional level.
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Consolidated Cereal Balance sheet
Country
2011/12 Cereal 2011/12 Cereal
2011/12
Requirement*
Availability** Surplus/Deficit
('000 tons)
('000tons)
('000 tons)
Angola
2 282
676
Botswana
429
73
Lesotho
378
73
Malawi
2 704
4 121
Mozambique
3 768
2 912
Namibia
333
141
South Africa
16 644
13 122
Swaziland
159
89
Tanzania
7 200
6 787
Zambia
2 549
4 286
Zimbabwe
2 535
1 701
SADC*
38 981
33 981
* Excluding Madagascar, Mauritius, Seyechells
-1 606
-356
-305
1 417
-856
-191
-3 522
-70
-413
1 737
-834
-4 999
Source: Mem ber States and SADC Secretariat
* Forecast from FANR REWS based on rainfall, input supply and past pro
Sates
9** Including opening stocks for some of the Member
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*** SADC (excluding DRC, Madagascar & Seychelles)
Maize prices at Global and Regional
level
Globally – Rising maize and wheat prices
SADC – Relatively stable maize prices due to cereal
surpluses experienced in the previous season.
Prices likely to rise later in the season due to the deficit
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International prices of wheat and maize rising
USDA
planting and
stocks figures
USDA Production Cut
Source: FAO GIEWS, 2011
• Political Tensions
• Oil price surge
• Depreciation of the US dollar
• Winter wheat – uncertain
growing conditions in US & China
(dry-weather)
SADC – Relatively stable maize prices
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0.9
Main
harvest
Main
harvest
Main
harvest
0.8
0.7
USD/KG
0.6
0.5
0.4
0.3
0.2
0.1
Source: FAO GIEWS, 2011
Zambia - National Average
Malawi - Liwonde
Zimbabwe - Harare
South Africa - Randfontein
Mozambique - Nampula
May/11
Apr/11
Mar/11
Feb/11
Jan/11
Dec/10
Nov/10
Oct/10
Sep/10
Aug/10
Jul/10
Jun/10
May/10
Apr/10
Mar/10
Feb/10
Jan/10
Dec/09
Nov/09
Oct/09
Sep/09
Aug/09
Jul/09
Jun/09
May/09
Apr/09
Mar/09
Feb/09
Jan/09
Dec/08
Nov/08
Oct/08
Sep/08
Aug/08
Jul/08
Jun/08
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Overview of the 2010/11 Season: Livestock products
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Overview of the 2010/11 Season: Livestock
products cont..
Production of meat increased by about 3% from 5.16
million tonnes in 2009 to 5.34 million tonnes in 2010.
Milk and eggs production increased by 2.3% and 3.2%
from 4.75 million tonnes and 0.61 million tonnes to 4.86
million and 0.63 million tonnes respectively over the same
period.
However, the Region still remains a net importer of these
products.
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Overview of the 2010/11 Season: Fisheries
The Region experiences a slight increase in fish production
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How food security and vulnerability
analysis are done
Food security analysis:
Takes into account all the pillars of food security
including, availability, accessibility, sustainability and
utilization.
Vulnerability Analysis
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In determining the number vulnerable households, the
analysis uses the livelihoods based approach which
takes into account all the means by which households
obtain and maintain access to essential resources to
ensure their immediate and long-term survival including
crops, livestock, labour, remittances etc.
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Findings of 2011 Vulnerability Assessments cont..
Trends in food insecure population in the Region
2005/06 2006/07 2007/08 2008/09 2009/10
2003/04
2004/05
Lesotho
Malawi
Mozambique
Namibia
Swaziland
Tanzania
Zambia
Zimbabwe
SADC**
270 000
400 000
659 000
217 000
844 333
60 000
5 422 600
7 872 933
948 300
541 000 245 700
553 000 353 000
1 340 000 5 055 000 833 000
63 200 673 498
659 000
801 655 240 000
520 000 302 664
600 400
634 400 465 900
345 000 238 600
686 356
848 019 995 433
581 974 780 416
39 300 1 232 700 380 537
440 866 444 624
2 300 000 2 884 800 1 392 500 4 100 000 5 100 000
6 573 356 11 997 574 4 553 070 6 604 040 7 892 802
South Africa***
DRC****
13 604 500 13 131 200 10 997 600 9 553 000
Country
2010/11
2011/12
10 400
514 000
201 854
350 000
243 474
88 511
Botswana*
6 967 800 6 610 200
450 000
147 492
281 300
224 795
262 000
240 544
110 000
1 400 000
3 116 131
200 000
1 061 000
350 000
106 297
160 989
1 217 767
53 629
74 804
1 287 937 1 390 000
4 437 619 2 862 643
7 840 700 12 075 800
4 300 000
Source: *Figure from one livelihood zone only
Source: **SADC FANR Directorate - Member States Vulnerabilty Assessment Committees
Source: ***Stats SA, GHS
Source: ****DRC IPC Group
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Findings of 2011 Vulnerability Assessments cont...
Data Source: National VACs
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Findings of 2011 Vulnerability Assessments
cont...
General trend of food insecure population in the
Region continued to decline (findings from Tanzania
not available)
Compared to last year, number of food insecure
households has increased in Lesotho (157%), Namibia
(129%), Zambia (39%) and Zimbabwe (8%, not
including urban areas). Decreases were recorded in
Malawi (81%) and Swaziland (45%).
Chronic vulnerability and high levels of poverty
persists across the Region
Despite declining trend in levels of vulnerability
19malnutrition levels still remain high
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Summary of food security situation cntd…
Malnutrition: prevalence still high in the Region
Summary of food security situation cntd…
Stunting represents chronic malnutrition i.e. prenatal
nutrition deprivation.
Effects of malnutrition include:
Poor physical development and mental capacity
Poor performance in school and high drop out rate
High risk of dietary related non communicable diseases
affecting ability to earn decent living.
Note: Figures in the chart relate to under-nutrition among
age group 0 - 59 months
Data obtained from Member States Demographic Health
Surveys 2005 – 2009 and other national surveys.
Conclusions
SADC as a region has recorded a deficit of about 5 million MT
in 2011/12 marketing year.
Number of people requiring humanitarian assistance has
decreased from last year. (not including TZ).
High rates of malnutrition (stunting) still persist in a number of
countries.
Lack of access to food and non-food for the very-poor and
poor remain persistent – indications of chronic vulnerability
linked to poverty (e.g. Lesotho, Swaziland, Botswana)
Agricultural subsidy programmes in the region continue to
make significant positive impacts
Some surplus cereal producing countries are experiencing
depressed producer prices
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Main Recommendations
1.
Continued emphasis is required on increased social protection and safety nets
programmes
2.
Enhance infrastructure development for improved market access e.g. transport,
storage and communication
3.
Continued support to agriculture input and output subsidy programmes
4.
SADC Member States should facilitate inter-country trade of food crops, livestock
and fishery products from surplus areas to deficit areas
5.
Member States are encouraged to implement medium to long term interventions
to address chronic vulnerability issues and high levels of poverty
6.
Cooperating partners and traders should be encourage to procure locally and
Regionally.
7.
Urge Member States to scale up and prioritize food and nutrition security
programmes.
8.
Member States are encouraged to draw a link between food security and climate
change so as to devise and implement adaptation and mitigation measures as
appropriate.
9.
Member States are asked to promote smallholder irrigation technologies such as
water harvesting technologies and drip irrigation as opposed to dependence on
only rain fed agriculture
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THANK YOU
OBLIGADO
MERCI
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