Transcript Document

What Was Done in California
and How?
Dr. Alan Lloyd, President Emeritus
International Council on Clean Transportation
[email protected]
Former Chair, California Air Resources Board
Former Secretary, California Environmental Protection Agency
We regulate emissions
Authorities
Motor vehicles and fuels
(under federal Clean Air Act exemption)
Air toxics, consumer products, greenhouse gases
(under California law)
Oversight over Local Responsibilities
Stationary and area sources
Transportation planning targets
Rulemaking Process
Public hearing of Governing Board
Public workshops and stakeholder meetings
Public and legislative support
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Our national impact
Federal Clean Air Act Exemption
for California vehicle emission standards
To meet “compelling and extraordinary” conditions
Must meet or exceed federal regulations
Can be adopted by other states
(15 including Northeast States, Oregon, Washington)
California Firsts
Lead-free gasoline
Low-sulfur fuels
Three-way catalytic converter
Stringent NOX control
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Our policy instruments
Performance-based Emission Standards
Aftertreatment effective but turnover slow
Retrofits and repowering also beneficial
Fuel improvements provide immediate benefits
Incentive Funding
$150M per year for diesel engines
$1B for port trucks and equipment
Market-based Programs
Carbon emission trading for large sources
Enforcement and Monitoring Programs
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Science informs our policies
Legislative Requirements
Automotive Engineer and M.D. on Governing Board
Health-based ambient air quality standards
Extramural research program with external oversight
Peer review of scientific basis for regulations
Workforce
70% engineers and scientists
In-house research
Field/Modeling Studies
Los Angeles and San Joaquin Valley Air Basins
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California’s air pollution problem
Unique geography and
meteorology confine air
pollutants
38 M people
90 people per km2
24 M gasoline cars
1.3 M diesel vehicles
1.4 B km per day
18 M off-road engines
3 large container ports
Over 90% of Californians
breathe unhealthy air
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Los Angeles Smog in 1948
Air quality after World War II
• Unhealthy levels of lead, NO2,
SO2, CO, ozone, particulate
matter, and air toxics
• Poor visibility
• Difficulty breathing
• Extreme eye irritation
• In Los Angeles
– Over 100 smog alerts annually
– Over 300 days with unhealthy air
annually
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Cancer risks from airborne toxics*
(90% of risk from traffic pollutants)
* Estimated 400 cases/year in 2005 (dioxins not included).
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Air pollution causes premature death
California estimates
Pollutant
Annual Deaths*
PM2.5
5,800 to 8,900
Ozone
300 to 1000
Toxic Air Contaminants
<400
*2009-2011 for PM2.5; 2005 for ozone and TAC
Note: 233,00 total deaths in 2010
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Our current targets
Air Quality
By 2020, attain annual PM2.5 of 12 µg/m3
By 2023, attain 8-hour ozone of 80 ppb
By 2025, attain 24-hour PM2.5 of 35 µg/m3
By 2032, attain 8-hour ozone of 75 ppb
Diesel and Freight Transport
By 2020, diesel PM risk 85% below 2000 levels
Greenhouse Gases
By 2020, reduce to 1990 levels (AB 32)
By 2050, 80% below 1990 levels
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Major California control programs
• Smoke controls began in 1945
– Backyard burning, open burning at garbage dumps, industrial smoke
• Hydrocarbon controls begin in 1956
– Gasoline storage tanks and trucks
• 1970s
– Industrial SOX controls
– Lead and RVP limits for gasoline
– Three-way catalysts for passenger cars
• 1980s
– On-board diagnostics
– Low-sulfur gasoline and diesel
• 1990s
– Air toxics
• 2000s and beyond
– Light trucks meet same standards as cars
– Diesel PM and NOX
– Greenhouse gases
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Performance-based regulations
Mobile Sources (>99% gasoline, 98% diesel reduction)
Cleaner engines
Aftertreatment
Cleaner gasoline and diesel fuel
Alternative fuels
Stationary Sources (80-90% reduction)
Low-NOX burners
Selective catalytic reduction
Cleaner fuels
Area Sources (>75% reduction)
Vapor recovery
Low-volatility solvents, paints, consumer products
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Light-duty emission standards
EGR
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TWC
On-Board Computer
NOx
4
3
Oxidation
Catalyst
2
1
HC
Advanced Computer
Fuel Injection
O2 Sensor
Unleaded Gasoline
1993
1975
1966
0
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Heavy-duty emissions standards
NOx
7
Computer Control
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PM*10
NMHC
EGR
Emission Standard
(g/bhp-hr)
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DPF
4
3
SCR
2
1
0
<1990
1991
1994
1998
Model Year
2004
2007
2010
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California emission trends
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Cumulative lifetime cancer risk
(per million)
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California Progress on Black Carbon
Ramanathan et al. (2013) Black Carbon and the Regional Climate of California, CARB
Contract No. 08-323
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Air pollution reduced 75-90%
despite growth
250
Percent Change
1968-2008
200
150
100
50
0
-50
-100
Carbon Nitrogen Sulfur Population Number Vehicle
Monoxide Dioxide Dioxide
of Vehicles Miles
Ozone – Los Angeles peak reduced 70%, hours of exposure by 90%
PM10 – annual-average levels reduced 75%
Air toxics – lead eliminated, cancer risk reduced 80% (since 1989)
Black carbon – reduced 90% (95% by 2020)
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In-Use Diesel Regulations
Urban Buses (2000)
Garbage Trucks (2003)
Stationary Engines (2004)
Transport Refrigeration Units (2004)
Portable Engines (2004)
Transit Fleet Vehicles (2005)
Public Fleets & Utilities (2005)
Cargo Handling Equipment (2005)
Drayage Trucks (2007)
Off-Road Vehicles (2007)
Trucks and Buses (2008)
Tractor-Trailer GHG (2008)
Agricultural Tractors and
Equipment (under development)
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Costs of Control
0.5% GDP (US 1990-2020)
Benefits of Control
$10-95 in health benefits for each $1 of control (US 1970-1990)
$30 in health benefits for each $1 of control (US 1990-2020)*
Air pollution control industry – 32,000 jobs and $6.2B (CA 2001)
Clean energy industry – 123,000 jobs and $27B (CA 2009)
U.S. EPA Reports to Congress on The Benefits and Costs of the Clean Air Act (www.epa.gov/air/sect812/index.html)
* 1990-2020 uncertainty analysis under development
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Climate Pollutant Emissions
(2010)
Global
California
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California leader in energy efficiency
14,000
United States
California
New York
12,000
kWh/person
10,000
8,000
6,000
4,000
2,000
0
1960
1965
1970
1975
1980
1985
1990
1995
2000
year
www.eia.doe.gov/emeu/states/sep_use/total/csv/use_csv
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Assembly Bill 32 actions
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Major California GHG policies
• Transportation
–
–
–
–
54.5 mpg fleet average by 2025
1.5 million zero emission vehicles by 2025
10% lower carbon intensity by 2020
~7.6% per capita VMT reduction by 2020, ~12% by 2035 (SB 375)
• Electricity generation
– 33% renewable by 2020
– No coal after 2025 (SB 1368)
– 12,000 MW renewable self generation by 2025
• Energy efficiency
– Appliance standards
– $2.5B for school retrofits (Prop 39), retrofit existing building (AB 758)
– Zero energy new residential buildings by 2020, commercial by 2030
• Water
– 20% per capita water consumption reduction by 2020
• Waste
– 75% diversion by 2020 (AB 341)
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Summary
• California had worst air quality in world
• Current air pollution health risk
– PM2.5 >> ozone > air toxics
• Emissions control focus
– 1950s and 1960s: smoke
– 1970s and 1980s: lead, SOX, hydrocarbons and NOX
– 1990s to present: diesel PM and NOX, air toxics, GHG
• Air quality improved 75-90% over past 45 years
• Benefits much greater than control costs
• Need to achieve 80-90% GHG control
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