Transcript Interaction with policymakers: The use of the RAINS and

Markus Amann
International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis (IIASA)
EMEP Centre for Integrated Assessment Modelling (CIAM)
Emission control potentials in non-EU
countries
Status of ratifications of the Gothenburg Protocol
as of May 24, 2007, Parties in the GAINS model domain
EU Parties
Other Parties
20 ratifications
Belgium
Bulgaria
Cyprus
Czech Republic
Denmark
Finland
7 not ratified
Austria*
Estonia
Greece*
Ireland*
Italy*
Malta
France
Germany
Hungary
Latvia
Lithuania
Luxembourg
Netherlands
Poland*
2 ratifications
Norway
Switzerland
Russia
Serbia
TFYR Macedonia
Turkey
Ukraine
Portugal
Romania
Slovakia
Slovenia
Spain
Sweden
UK
11 not ratified
Albania
Belarus
Bosnia-H.
Croatia*
Montenegro
Rep. Moldova
*) signed but not ratified
Analysis for non-EU countries
that have not ratified the Gothenburg Protocol
• Baseline projection:
– National activity projections supplied by Russia (2002),
Ukraine (2004)
– 1996 energy projection used for Gothenburg Protocol for
Albania, Belarus, Bosnia-H., Croatia, TFYROM, Serbia-M.
• “With measures” scenario:
– FGD for new and retrofit of 50% of old plants in 2020
– Low sulphur fuels (1% heavy fuel oil, 0.1% light fuel oil,
0.05% diesel
– Industrial processes: -50% SO2 , -40% NOx, and
current EU PM emission standards for new Member States
– Primary NOx measures for boilers
– Euro 4/IV for diesel and gasoline vehicles
– Improved electrostatic precipitators for large boilers
Emission projections
Baseline projection and “with measures” scenario
140%
Emissions relative to 2000 level
120%
100%
80%
60%
40%
20%
0%
2000
2010
2020
2000
SO2
2010
2020
NOx
Baseline
With measures
2000
2010
PM2.5
2020
Emission control potentials for SO2
3500
3000
kt SO2
2500
2000
1500
1000
500
0
2000
2020
Russia
Remaining emissions
Low S heavy fuel oil
FGD solid fuels, retrofit
Low S light heating oil
2000
2020
Ukraine
FGD solid fuels, new
Low S diesel
FGD oil, new
2000
2000
2020
Other Parties
Industrial processes
Emission control potentials for NOx
3500
3000
kt NOx
2500
2000
1500
1000
500
0
2000
2020
2000
Russia
Remaining emissions
2020
2000
Ukraine
Primary measures
Industrial processes
2020
Other Parties
Euro-4/IV Diesel
Euro4/IV Gasoline
Emission control potentials for PM
700
600
kt PM2.5
500
400
300
200
100
0
2000
2020
Russia
Remaining emissions
Industrial processes
Two-wheelers
2000
2020
Ukraine
Solid fuels in households
Euro IV for heavy duty vehicles
2000
2020
Other Parties
Upgrade of ESP
Euro4 for passenger cars
Loss in statistical life expectancy
due to anthropogenic PM2.5
Baseline projection 2020
With measures scenario 2020
Loss in statistical life expectancy
due to anthropogenic PM2.5
9
Loss in life expectancy (months)
8
7
6
5
4
3
2
1
0
Albania
Belarus
BosniaH.
2000
Croatia
TFYROM Moldova
Scope for reductions in 2020
Russia
Serbia
With measures 2020
Ukraine
Avg.
Potentials of major control measures
compared to 2020 baseline projection
• FGD for new plants: -40% SO2
• 0.05% S diesel: -10% SO2
• Euro-4 for passenger cars: -13% NOx, -2% PM2.5
• Euro-IV for heavy duty vehicles: -8% NOx, -4% PM2.5
• EU PM emission limit values for new Member States for stationary
sources: -16% PM2.5
• In 2020, implementation of these measures would reduce health
impacts from PM by 40 percent.
• In addition, major health improvements would result from a
phase-out of solid fuels in households