Transcript Effect of Interventions in Vehicular Sector on Air Quality

Effect of interventions in vehicular
sector on air quality
TERI, New Delhi
Scope
Traffic congestion and
pollution
Older fleets
Sprawling cities
Smaller cities- even less
managed
Upcoming cities-Panjim
Different types and usage of vehicles
• Unregistered vehicles
• Overloading
• Limited maintenance
Debate
• Contribution of vehicular sector
• Which vehicles for which pollutants
• Road map for future norms
• Effect on air quality
Are the current BS norms enough to meet air quality
standards ?
Do we need to continually advance them ?
What is the effect of introducing better quality fuel
in India and its cities ?
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TERI integrated modelling approach
Met.
Modelling
(WRF)
Energy
Modeling
(MARKAL
)
Emission
Modeling
(GAINS)
Air
Quality
Modeling
(CMAQ)
Future
predictio
ns
Impacts
Objective : To study the impact of improvement of fuel quality and
vehicular emission norms in India on the ambient air quality, and
subsequently on the human health
Sumit Sharma, Suresh Jain, C Sitalakshami, Richa Mahtta, Anju Goel, Atul Kumar, Divya
Datt, Seema Kundu, Prateek Sharma , TERI, New Delhi
Vehicle-wise energy consumption and projections
(2010-2030)
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Scenario analysis
Scenario
BAU
ALT-I
ALT-II
ALT-III
ALT-IV
Description
Based on the current plans and policies of the government
without any further intervention. BS-III all across the country
and BS-IV in 13 cities
Introduction of BS-IV all across the country by 2015
Introduction of BS-IV all across the country by 2020
Introduction of BS-IV all across the country by 2015 and BS-V
in 2020
Introduction of BS-IV all across the country by 2015 and BS-VI
in 2020
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Effect of advancement of vehicular emission norms
Scenario
BAU
ALT-I
ALT-II
ALT-III
ALT-IV
Description
Based on the current plans and policies of the government without any
further intervention. BS-III all across the country and BS-IV in 13 cities
Introduction of BS-IV all across the country by 2015
Introduction of BS-IV all across the country by 2020
Introduction of BS-IV all across the country by 2015 and BS-V in 2020
Introduction of BS-IV all across the country by 2015 and BS-VI in 2020
Reduction in PM2.5 conc. (ALT-IV-2030)
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Avoided mortalities- ALT-IV scenario
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Benefits could be larger ..
• Health impacts of only PM
• NOx, CO, VOCs and O3 may additionally or
synergistically aggravate the impacts
• Agricultural impacts of Ozone and other pollutants
• Climate benefits are additional
• Reduction in PM will reduce black carbon
concentrations too
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City level analysis
Sumit Sharma, V. Ramanathan
• Aim- To assess the improvement in air quality due to
interventions in transport sector
• City: Bangalore
• Air quality model – CMAQ
• Emission inventory – Source apportionment study (2x2 km²)
• PM, NOx, CO, SO2, VOCs
• Meteorological fields – WRF models runs
• Boundary conditions- from National scale runs
• Period – December, 2010 (to assess worst season air quality)
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Emission Inventory – Source apportionment
study
P M10
C o n str u ction
• Total pollution load
14%
H o te l
0%
• PM10 - 54.4 T/d
T ra n sp o r t
In du stry
42%
14%
• NOX – 217.4 T/d
D G Se t
7%
• SO2 – 14.6 T/d
D o me stic
3%
R o ad D u st
20 %
NOx
H otel
Indus try
0%
8%
D G S et
23%
D om es tic
1%
Trans port
68%
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Air quality modelling- Dec, 2010 (baseyear)
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Widespread violation of PM2.5 standard in Bangalore
Model comparison
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Future projections
• Future year 2030
• Growth assessed based on city development plans, mobility
plans
• Annual growth of 3-4% assumed based on projected
demands
• Domestic sector projections based on population growth
• Rest other emissions assumed to be same as current
• BAU scenario
• Transport sector emissions remained almost same as current
levels
• Introduction of BS-IV norms negated the growth in emissions
caused by incerased number of vehicles
• ALT scenario
• BS-VI introduced from 2020
• Transport sector emissions reduced by 50%.
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Future projections : Effect on air quality
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• 20% reduction in PM2.5 concentrations
• Many areas start meeting the standards
Future projections : EC also reduced . may
affect the local climate
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Conclusions
• Uniform fuel quality ‘One country, one fuel and one
standard’ in India helps in reducing emissions
• Effects of advancing the norms are substantial at both
National and urban scales
• A city like Bangalore, can achieve the standards with
introduction of advanced norms.
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Thanks
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