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Connecting climate, hydrologic and drought predictions to water resource management in Washington State Andy Wood, Shraddhanand Shukla, Julie Vano, and Anne C. Steinemann Project Overview Hydrologic Assessment and Prediction Activities For Washington State, a real-time model-based hydrologic monitoring and prediction system now offers: spatial maps of soil moisture and SWE basin average moisture conditions for “water resources inventory areas” (WRIAs) current drought index values and their recent time evolution State-of-the-art climate forecasts such as the NOAA CPC medium range and seasonal outlooks offer the potential to improve water management in drought-vulnerable sectors such as agriculture. This study will assess the extent and modes of adoption of NOAA climate prediction products in water resources operations and drought management. We focus on water management (a) in Washington State’s Yakima River Basin, home to the state's most valuable irrigated crops, and (b) on state-level drought policy in Washington. There are three main goals of the project: 1. Collaborate with U.S. Bureau of Reclamation (USBR) to evaluate the uses of climate and streamflow forecasts. 2. Interact with water users and managers to identify the factors that influence the degree of adoption of hydrologic forecasts in decision-making. 3. Explore potential uses of model-based monitoring and prediction of hydrologic indicators of drought as triggers for management actions. The USBR Yakima (reservoir) Project supports approximately 464,000 irrigated acres, as well as hydropower, recreation and fisheries needs. the system can stage both traditional (e.g., PDSI) and experimental indices http://www.hydro.washington.edu/forecast/sarp/ User Interactions snowmelt prediction in spring flood control, late fall, winter note, recent flood disaster for western WA declared CPC outlook-based hydrologic outlooks for the state & basin (under evaluation) Interaction with USBR operators and water users focuses on identifying potential matches of decision information needs with existing climate prediction products CPC medium range forecasts for: UW Civil and Environmental Engineering Analysis of model-based indices of drought for past drought events spawning flow setting in November For example, just prior to drought declaration in March 2001… Example: Oct 1 forecast for October (lead 0.5) climate and hydrologic variables (below) based on Sep. 20 CPC seasonal outlook (right). Precipitation CPC outlook Temperature Soil Moisture week-to-week delivery operations in summer SWE SWE SWE Soil Moisture Runoff growers’ decisions in winter setting spawning flows in November. observed Observed 19% 10% 2% Temperature BN BN AN 69% AN AN 28% 30% BN BN BN BN 22% 20% AN Forecast BN AN Observed forecast AN AN AN Forecast helping to determine Total Water Supply Available (TWSA) for allocations in spring observed forecast CPC seasonal outlooks for: Product Assessment Outlook skill for Yakima R. basin BN Precipitation • Directional Skill: % of time forecast tendency in "right" direction? Above Normal (AN) or Below Normal (BN) • CPC Seasonal Forecast Climate Division 74, lead time 0.5 month, 1995-2006 Ongoing Work • Assess and discuss skill of seasonal outlook and medium range CPC climate forecast products with USBR and water users in Yakima R. basin • Identify avenues for increasing quantitative use of CPC climate forecasts in decisionmaking by water managers and users. • Develop state-wide model-based drought indices that are informed by CPC climate products, and identify potential linkages to state-level drought management. Acknowledgements Funding has been provided by the NOAA Sector Applications Research Program (SARP).