Transcript The Regional Integrated Sciences and Assessments Program (RISA): Designing

The Regional Integrated Sciences and
Assessments Program (RISA): Designing
effective assessments for decision support
Roger S. Pulwarty
NOAA
Boulder CO 80305
CIG, WWA, CAP, CLIMAS,GCDAMP
1
• What/where are the critical issues and who
is/are defining them?
• What are the processes?
• What are the applications?
• What are the outcomes?
2
Planning for climate risks?
There is strong
evidence
that existing climate
risks are not being
adequately incorporated
into decision-making,
even with regard to
weather extremes
(Source: MunichRe, Topics Geo Annual
Review, Natural Catastrophes, 2005)
3
Conclusions, so far
• Degradation is often a long-term process with cumulative
phases of acceleration and deceleration
• Rates of changes are important
• Processes involve multiple timescales
(conjunction of several factors at unique points)
• Degradation must be placed within wider social and
environmental dynamics (other phases of landscape
transformation)
eg size of settlements and adequacy of social mechanisms
to deal with changing circumstances
4
Three reasons for assessing climate change in the context of adaptation to
extremes and variability:
(1) A strictly long-term focus can overshadow the role of surprise in
shaping responses
(2) Adaptations in many cases are driven by crises, learning and
redesign
(3) Opportunities exist to learn from organizations that cope with
change and focus on responses and social networking such as
disaster relief and research
……..BUT—long-term scenarios can also bring focus on changes in
extremes…
(Orlove, 2004: Pulwarty, Broad, Finan, 2003)
5
The Asipu
A group of priests in the Tigris-Euphrates valley
2500-3000 BC
•
•
•
•
Hazard identification
Data collection and analysis
Generation of alternatives
Report creation
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Integrated assessment
Forecast generation
Projections
Dissemination
Utilization
7
Problem-solving approaches conditioned by system uncertainty and decision stakes
(Adapted with permission from Functowicz and Ravetz, 1990)
>2 nd Order Contexts
(Integrated Assessments
Decision-support)
Decision Stakes:
Consultancy
(Specific
applications
&output)
Can/should probabilities
be specified for this area?
Applied
Sciences
(Impacts)
Problem solving
approach
System Uncertainty
Physical systems:and linkages
Economics &Human Dimensions
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Resources
Vulnerability
Capability
Physical/material
What hazards,skills,
productive resources
exist?
Social/Organizational
What are the relations
and organizations
among people?
Behavioral/Incentives
How does the
community view its
ability to create change?
Capabilities and vulnerabilities matrix
9
Drought
10
11
Preparedness
Focusing event(s)
and cumulative
Impacts
Mitigation
Response
Recovery
Prevention
Development
12
13
Multiple competing values
Multiple, competing objectives
Hydropower
Ecosystems
health
Recreation
Consumptive
use
Flood
control
Agriculture
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Benefits of controlling seasonality/hydrology
•
•
•
•
Conveyance of flood waters
Storage for irrigation (and power)
Predictable navigation opportunity
Enhanced recreational uses
Adaptation requirements
• Sufficient water resources for experimentation
• Resilience identified/understood in key ecosystem components
• Flexibility among stakeholders
• Room for political negotiations
15
Where do science and policy speak to
each other?
and, what do they talk about?
16
17
Environment
Industry
State
Communities
International
Pressures
18
Are we exceeding design specs on this stand?
No, you’re
biased
You’re
biased
Oh, you’re
biased
Everyone is
biased
except me
19
Lessons from the disaster research community
Technical range of choice
• (state of knowledge, technology, resources at a
given point in time)
Practical range of choice
• (culture, community, practice, communication)
No choice
• (power, access/procedure, capacity)
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Where do science, policy and practice,
speak to each other?
and, what do they talk about?
Climate variability and change:
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Q 3. Find x
3 cm
x
4 cm
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Q 3. Find x
Here it is !
3 cm
x
4 cm
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Regional Integrated Sciences and Assessments:
Objectives and Approaches
Characterize the state of knowledge of climate variations and changes, and
their social, economic, and ecological interaction, impacts and
projections at appropriate scales of interest within a region
 Identify knowledge gaps in selected critical climate-environmentsociety problems in a region and carry out research to bridge these gaps
as needed
Assess regional and local resources, capacity , and decision-support
dialogs needed in responding to environmental variability and change
 Carry out research focused on realizing the benefits of integrated
knowledge and forecasts in different contexts and provide an informed
basis for place-based decision support and services
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Approach to Integrated Research
First vertical assessment, then horizontal
1. Understand the physical system, including predictability and
uncertainty
2. Understand the managed system, i.e. the nature and
consequences of human choices and activities
3. Understand the institutional context of these systems, e.g.
processes, laws, constraints, decision calendars, and customs
under which human choices are made
4. Work with regional stakeholders at all stages.
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….viewed from Information chain
Improved
Decision
Process
••Framing
the
question
Climate
Network
Types
Place-based
Dialog,
ofnot
simulations
design
models
two
and
Distributed
••Synthesis
tools
&
Platforms
Scale
sector-based
monologues
scenarios
dissemination
••Data
assimilation
&
• User
Social
Appropriate
Temporal
oriented
trendsmix of
• New
technologies
visualization
•
Demographics
• Scenarios
observations
• Spatial and
•• Complexity
models
Energy
use
• probabilistic
Quality
Performance
assurance
Interactive
•• Scenario
Land usedevelopment
and
metrics
outcomes
control
and
testing
• Institutions
User friendly
Synthesis
••Understanding
• Policies
•methodologies
Flexible
• Laws
••Place-based
Values
• Politics
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Usual stakeholder interaction
– Concentrates on the incorporation of new
knowledge or experience into existing models,
decision processes and practices
Needed
– The most important learning involves values,
norms, goals, and the basic “framing” of issues
in terms of the drivers and importance
– Innovative partnerships incl.research
27
Elements of adaptive management: Learning
by doing
• Recognition of scientific and management complexity and uncertainty
/with practitioners
• Directive and/or need for action
• Implement management actions to address resource problems as
experiments
• Monitor and evaluate effects of action/experiments (what works, what
does not)
• Develop integrated models for watershed interactions, legal and
cultural requirements etc.
• Develop experiments in a participatory process involving a key parties
(transactions costs)
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NOAA & NOAA-Supported Centers
RISA – Pacific Northwest
RISA – Western Water
High Plains RCC
University of Nebraska
International
Research Institute
Midwestern RCC
Illinois State Water Survey
RISA – New
Hampshire
Northeast RCC
Cornell University
Western RCC
Desert Research
Institute
Climate Prediction
Center, Climate
Services Division
Climate Diagnostic
Center
RISA – California
Pacific ENSO
Applications
Center
National Center
Regional Center
States Participating
Southern RCC
In Two Regions
Louisiana State
University
RISA’s
NWS RHQ RISA – Arizona - CLIMAS
National Climatic
Data Center
Southeast RCC
S.C. Dept. of Natural
Resources
RISA – Florida
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Seattle PUD
WDOE/Water Supp.
Portland Water Bur.
NPPC
BPA
Seattle City Light
Tacoma P&L
NOAA River FC
US Army Corps
Seattle City Council
PNNL
OSU/USFS
U of I
Water Markets/
Energy
Hydrology/
Water Resources
Forests/
Forest
hydrology
ID Governor’s Office
State Legislature
USDOI - Western
Regional Office
Human
Health
WSU
Agriculture
Climate
Dynamics
Aquatic
Ecosystems
WA Department
of Health
US Forest Service
National Park Service
WDNR
Coastal Activities
WDOE
Shorelands Prog.
OR Dept. of Lands &
Development, Coastal
Management Prog.
OSU
Battelle - Seattle
BLM
NRCS
Farmers
Irrigation districts
WDFW
NMFS
NPFMC
PFMC
NWIFC
CRITFC
IPHC
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Stresses:
Integrated Decision Support
Modeling Tool
Responses:
Climate Variability and
Change (e.g., drought)
New storage
Will there be sufficient
water of adequate quality to
meet competing demands?
• Municipal and
Industrial
• Agriculture
• Environment
Conjunctive Use
Increased Reuse
Agricultural
Efficiency
Conservation
Regional growth
• Increased population
• Changes in land use
Goal: Improve regional capabilities to
adapt to climate-related impacts.
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Projected Population Growth
Percent of Current Population
200%
NV
AZ
UT
NM
175%
CO
150%
CA
125%
USA
100%
1990
1995
2000
45 Million
2005
2010
Year
2015
2020
2025
2030
64 Million
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Issue: So Many
Stakeholders!
Continental Scale:
Focus of modelers
Different Scales (time & space)
Different Issues
Different Stakeholders
Watershed/Local Scale:
Where impacts happen
Where stakeholders exist
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http://hydis6.hwr.arizona.edu/ForecastEvaluationTool/
Initially for NWS CPC climate forecasts
Six elements in our webtool:
• Exploring Forecast Progression
•Forecast Interpretation - Tutorials
• Forecast Performance
• Historical Context
• Use in Decision Making
• Details: Forecast Techniques, Research
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Historical Context for Forecasts/projections
Recent History
2002
2003
| Possible Futures
Requested by
FireLamanagers…
Nina
Applicable to any
climate variable
2004
Neutral Non-ENSO sequences
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64 Million
45 Million
2025
Groundwater overdraft in response to
drought in Arizona's urban areas 2025
2000
Phoenix
Tucson
Sierra Vista*
Santa Cruz
0
-10
Baseline
Percent overdraft
-20
-30
1-yr drought
-40
-50
-60
5-yr drought
10-yr drought
-70
-80
-90
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Wildfire Threat
forecast
•The end product is a
monthly, county-by-county
forecast of the KBDI.
•Graphic shows the
probability of at least 7 days
in the month being above or
below critical thresholds.
•Thresholds were determined
with input from forestry and
wildfire experts.
•Forecast was based on the
Neutral ENSO phase.
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How Good are Available Forecasts
Projections?
• Natural
• science
• Social
science
• Stakeholder interaction
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CDC-CIRES Western Water
Assessment Mission:
To improve water-related decision-making and
management in the Interior West by increasing the scope,
quality, availability and relevance of climate products
and knowledge
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Colorado River Flow Departures from Average
WET
Compact
GCD
Salton Sea
DRY
Climatic Influences
ENSO
PDO/V
Southwest Monsoon
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Land Surface Feedbacks
Extreme Events
Colorado River at Lees Ferry reconstructed flow
1530-1990s
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Timescales
Indeterminate
Long-term
Decade
Annual
Seasonal
Daily-monthly
Hourly
Flows necessary to protect endangered species
Inter-basin allocations and those allocations among states
Upper Basin delivery obligations
Lake Powell-Lake Mead equalization storage
Peak heating and cooling months
Flood control operations, Kanab amber snail impacts
Western Area Power Administration’s power generation decisions
Household-municipalTribal/State
county
Regional
National
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Global
Water Resources: Decision calendars
Hydropower Decision Calendars
Municipal & Industrial Decision CalendarsPlanning
Aquatic Ecosystems Decision Calendars
Outdoor Recreation Decision Calendars
Planning
Planning
Agriculture Production Decision CalendarsPlanning
data
decisions
data
decisions
tion planning
data
gmentation
tion planning releases
decisions
Planning
data
gmentation
decisions
tion planning releases
data
gmentation
tion planning releases
decisions
gmentation
releases
tion planning
gmentation
releases
Oct
Oct
Oct
Oct
Oct
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Reservoir Management Decision Calendar
Water Year Planning
Next Water Year Planning
Provide for late Summer/early Fall irrigation while maintaining target flows
Next water year runoff unknown, reserve water until February snowpack observations
Winter season precipitation forecast for Fall release decisions
Winter releases based on January/February snowpack observations
Winter/Spring forecast for Winter release decisions
Peak Flow Augmentation - fill curve
Legend:
Summer season forecast for Peak Augmentation planning
Planning Process
Week 2 forecasts for Peak Augmentation
Operational issues
Peak Flow Augmentation releases
Potential use of forecasts
Plan releases for Summer irrigation & hydropower
Week 2 forecasts for Summer irrigation & hydropower release decisions
Provide for Summer irrigation & hydropower needs while maintaining target flows
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Aug
Sep
Oct
Nov
Dec
Jan
Feb
Mar
Apr
May
Jun
July
Aug
Sep
Oct
Regional Water Issues
Activities
Event
horizon
Understand, Explain,
Predict, Assess,
Communicate, Evaluate
Climate
Processes
Network
Short
Term
Extreme
Events
Develop experimental forecasts,
monitoring, and application
products. Experimental
attribution assessments of
regional extremes.
Subseasonal
variability, Arctic
Outbreaks,
Monsoon, floods,
heat waves,
tornados, hurricanes
Reclamation, Fish and
Wildlife Service
CBRFC, Office of
Hydrology, CPC, HPC,
Regional Councils,
Wildfire Managers
Drought
seasonal
to multiyear
Develop drought forecasts,
monitoring, paleoclimate
reconstructions and application
products. Assess social,
environmental, and economic
impacts.
Flash droughts,
snowpack
evolution, soil
moisture evolution,
El Niño and La
Niña, multidecadal
ocean variability
Western Governors
Association (WGA),
NIDIS, NWS, RFCs,
NCDC, RCCs,
NDMC, USDA,
NRCS, USGS, NASA,
Regional Councils,
State and Municipal
Agencies
48
Regional Water Issues
Activities
Event
Horizon
Understand, Explain,
Predict, Assess,
Communicate, Evaluate
Climate
Processes
Network
Decadal
Climate
Variability
Develop experimental
monitoring, attribution, and
application products.
Assessments of regional
trends and risks to inform
adaptation strategies.
Pacific Decadal
Variability, Atlantic
Multidecadal
Variability, Short
term influences,
Regional Trends
Regional Councils,
Wildfire Managers,
NCAR, Regional
Watershed Councils,
Municipal Agencies
(e.g., Denver)
Climate
Change
Develop experimental
attribution assessments of
hemispheric to regional
trends. Assess social,
environmental, and
economic risks
(e.g., Colorado Compact).
Observed, current
and evolving trends,
Enhanced
hydrologic cycle,
High elevation
change
CCSP, Reclamation,
EPA, USGS, IPCC,
NCAR, NASA,
Regional Watershed
Councils, Municipal
Agencies
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Key partnerships
Federal Level:
• Bonneville Power
Administration
• NOAA Fisheries Service
• NOAA River Forecast
Center
• U.S. Army Corps of
Engineers
• U.S. Bureau of
Reclamation
• U.S. Congress
• USDA Natural Resource
Conservation Service
• U.S. Environmental
Protection Agency
• U.S. Fish and Wildlife
Service
• U.S. Geologic Survey
State/Tribal
Level:
• CA, OR, ID Depts. of
Water Resources
• WA, OR, ID State
Governor’s Offices
• WA, OR, ID State
Legislatures
• WA Department of
Ecology
• WA Department of Fish
and Wildlife
• AK Department of Fish
and Game
• Columbia River InterTribal Fish Commission
• Northwest Indian
Fisheries Commission
Local/Other:
• Central Puget Sound
Water Suppliers' Forum
• City of Tualatin, OR
• King County, WA
• WA watershed planning
units
• Portland Water Bureau
• Puget Sound Clean Air
Agency
• Seattle City Light
• Seattle Public Utilities
• BC Hydro
• National Wildlife
Federation
• Northwest Power and
Conservation Council
• PNW news media
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How Does RISA Support Adaptation
to Climate Variability and Change?
Decisionsupport tools:
Research:
Investigating
sensitivity and
vulnerability to
climate
variability and
change
Provides the
foundation for
decision
support and
outreach
activities
Designed to
facilitate use of
climate
information in
operations and
planning
Research
RISA
Decisionsupport
Outreach:
Outreach
Designed to
develop (and
maintain)
ongoing
relationships
with the
stakeholder
community
52
Research categories identified by participating groups
Strategic
• Mission focused, seeks understand natural and human processes
identified as important to the solution of a specified problem
Applied
• Uses existing knowledge to identify approaches and develop
prototype technologies and processes to solve problems of
widespread importance
Adaptive
• Articulate problems at local and regional scales
• Identify appropriate approaches to solution
• Relevant prototype technologies/processes
• Fit these to the particular circumstances of specific groups
53
Robustness Strategies for Information:
•
Knowledge and information
– Scientifically credible
– Socially robust
• Political legitimacy
• Practical utility
• Effectiveness
• To what extent are probabilistic estimates about the future climate
impacts robust?
(given inability so far to include ENSO, AMO others)
54
• Raising awareness of the role of climate
Increasing capacity for response
• Innovative research partnerships
• Informing decsionmaking: Understanding context,
communication and pratice
55
Approaches to risk communication and associated
assumptions: Beyond “two-way” communication
___________________________________________________________________________
Approach
Assumptions and actions
Development and
delivery of a risk message
From the risk expert to the public--finite and
uni-directional
Aimed at bringing public views into line with expert views
Assumes expert view has more validity for decision-making
Dialogue about risk
Interactive exchange of risk information--continuous
Aimed at balancing the content of risk message
Assumes both views contribute to decision-making
Social processes
of risk communication
Engage in a process that addresses concerns about risk
Aimed at enhancing understanding among stakeholders
(DECISIVE AND NON-DECISIVE). Assumes the process is
as important as the product
______________________________________________________________________
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Is the research relevant
for decisions?
Analysis of usefulness for
policy/decision making arena
Is the research compatible
with existing
decision models?
Is the research accessible to
policy/decision maker?
Are the sources/providers of
information credible
to the decision maker?
Are policymakers
receptive to the
problem and to research?
Goals, Criticality, time frame, basis for decisions,usability,entry
points, experience
57
Water Resources: frames
Factor
Water Manager’s
Perspective
Researcher’s Perspective
Identifying critical
issue
Time frame
Spatial resolution
Goals
Basis for Decisions
Expectation
Product
Characteristics
Frame
Nature of Use
58
Factor
Water Manager’s Perspective
Researcher’s Perspective
Identifying critical issue
Based on experience
External assessment
Time frame
Immediate (operations)
Long-term (infrastructure)
Scientifically defensible
Fundable project
Spatial resolution
Institutional boundaries or
authorities
Scientifically defensible/funding
Goals
Optimization of multiple conditions
and minimize adverse impacts
Enhanced understanding,
prediction, explanation
Basis for Decisions
Procedure, judgment, training,
Economics, Politics, risk reduction
Scientific methods, funding
availability, disciplinary training
Expectation
Save money and time
Protect the life and property
Understanding, prediction,
continued improvement
Product Characteristics
Simple but accurate
Context is important
Peer-review publication and
recognition
Frame
Safety and well being, Profit
Consistency with institutional
culture, policy, etc.
Physical (atmospheric, hydrologic,
etc.) conditions as drivers
Dependent on scientific discipline
Nature of Use
Applied
Conceptual
59
Managing Uncertainty:
Where is the uncertainty?
-Problem Domain
-science
-organizational
-community
- adequate theory
-multiple hypotheses
& congruent management
actions.
-tractability (complexity)
-confronting models w/data
-independence/ rigor
-novelty
-political
60
Managing Uncertainty:
-Problem Domain
-science
-organizational
-community
-political
- expressions of power
- multiple equilibria
paths not taken
- NONE are scale invariant
- stability of institutions
novelty of approaches
- role of epistemic groups
- multiple discourses
- juggling domains
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A Sea Change in Perceptions
Dramatic change in stakeholder perceptions of value and relevance of
information about climate variability and change…
1995:
Few managers saw role for climate info, recognized predictability of climate, or possessed a
conceptual framework for applying climate info
1997-98:
El Niño and concomittant media attention stimulated widespread interest in information
about climate variability and in CIG
Most stakeholders unfamiliar with potential impacts of climate change and unprepared to use
such information
2001:
Senior-level water resources managers recognize climate change as a potentially significant
threat to regional water resources; acknowledge climate change information as critical to future
planning
2001/2:
50-year drought brings intense media attention to issue and CIG’s work public & private
pressure on State agencies to include CC impacts in long-term planning significant
involvement of CIG in multiple efforts
2003 to present day:
Continued significant breakthroughs with stakeholder groups
62
What’s your conceptual model?
What is your mental model?
How does this affect your choice of problems and
recommended solutions?
What “ought” to be done is easier to specify than to
understand what is being done
63
Where do science and policy speak to
each other?
64
Characteristics of successful conservation and
resources-based agreements in the Western US
•
•
•
•
•
Strong focusing events
Significant public interest
Personal attention of key leaders
Close interjurisdictional partnerships
Strong funding for research: collaboration
between research and management
• Meaningful Stakeholder involvement
65
– Workshops and meetings (shared scenario construction;
shared model building?)
– Presentations and briefings (incl. locally organized events,
e.g. hearings)
– One-on-one technical assistance
– Coordination with other ongoing projects
– Work with the local media
– Web site development and maintenance
– Graduate-level courses on climate impacts & adaptation
What else is needed? Research on the role of
climate information in adaptive governance…
66
Adaptive governance
•Integrates various types of knowledge and
organizations
•Recognizes redundancy and slack as buffers
relies on open decision-making processes
recognizing multiple interests, communitybased initiatives, and integrative science in
addition to traditional science
-
67
Local information system
• Discrete set of information resources organized for
the collection, processing, maintenance,
transmission, and dissemination of information in
accordance with defined procedures to meet
specific needs
Major information system
Special management attention because of its
importance to an agency mission, its high
development or maintenance costs or its
significant role in the administration of agency
programs, finance, property or other records
68
Hazard Information
Past incidence:Maps, factors
affecting occurrence
Element of Concern
Critical facilities, natural resources,
agriculture, population,
development (existing./proposed)
Site and Feature Characteristics
Specific damage/loss estimate
Physical suite characteristics,
structural strength, content exposure
Hazard
Assessment
What are the hazards?
What severity?
What return periods?
Who, what are
vulnerable
Why?
Formulation of
desired risk
reduction strategy
Criticality: From
hazards to
vulnerability to risk
Vulnerability
Assessment
Risk
Assessment
What is the expected
degree of loss?
Economic Analysis
Of risk reduction
options
Identification of
risk reduction options
69
Implications for
Regional Climate Services
• Developing the institutional capacity to provide climate services is
neither quick nor easy. Requires:
– Defining the types of climate information that are most useful for
the specified applications
– Producing very specific, mutually defined products
– Building trust with stakeholders over time
– Developing an integrated research and outreach team for continued
innovation
70
Team design and evolution
What mix of disciplines,
partnerships and institutions?
71
Adaptation experiences to inform governance (1)
(1) Clarification of goals at the human-environment interface
“while we sought consensus the fish disappeared”
(2) Distillation of lessons from comparative appraisals of
current and past practices
“foresight ≠ hindsight”
(3) Construction of a solid cooperative foundation for
research and management
72
Adaptation experiences to inform governance
(2)
(4)
Assess how policies and practices have been
diffused and become embedded in other
localized or specialized policy processes
(5)
Stimulate the innovation and field-testing of
policy experiments for adaptation across
climate timescales (not just a particular
climate scenario): Need for innovative
research partnerships
73
• Integrate an understanding of local contexts and
contending perspectives with an understanding of how
new information becomes framed and socialized into
agendas;
• Assess impediments and opportunities to the flow of
information including issues of credibility, legitimacy,
and acceptability;
74
NOAA & NOAA-Supported Centers
RISA – Pacific Northwest
RISA – Western Water
High Plains RCC
University of Nebraska
International
Research Institute
Midwestern RCC
Illinois State Water Survey
RISA – New
Hampshire
Northeast RCC
Cornell University
Western RCC
Desert Research
Institute
Climate Prediction
Center, Climate
Services Division
Climate Diagnostic
Center
RISA – California
Pacific ENSO
Applications
Center
National Center
Regional Center
States Participating
Southern RCC
In Two Regions
Louisiana State
University
RISA’s
NWS RHQ RISA – Arizona - CLIMAS
National Climatic
Data Center
Southeast RCC
S.C. Dept. of Natural
Resources
RISA – Florida
75
Interactions:
Participatory
Assessments:actionresearch orientation
B. Range of scientific
knowledge frames:
predictive capabilities
uncertainty, ignorance/
indeterminacy
A. Assessments:
Situation
Participants
Activities
Needs
Resources/Capacity
C. Policy contexts
and decision-making
processes
D. Dynamic dialogue between researchers (non-decisive)
and practitioners (decisive) on problem-definition:
shared understanding of significance and value conflicts
Constraints:
Time,$,
Rates of
change
76
A Prototype Pathway for Regional
Climate Information Services
RESEARCH
RISAs, universities, and labs
OTHER NON-NOAA
PARTNERS
&
DEVELOPMENT
&
Integrating knowledge
and products (CDC,
ETL, RCCs, RFCs, SCs)
IMPLEMENTATION
&
Operational
(RCCs, NCDC,
CPC, WFOs, SCs,
other private sector)
SERVICES
new or enhanced regional products
information delivery technology
sustained & systematic communication and feedback77
National Integrated
Drought Information System
(NIDIS)
“Creating a National Drought Early Warning System”
• Goal: To enable the Nation to move
from a reactive to a more proactive
approach to droughts.
• “WGA believes NOAA should be
designated as the federal lead for
NIDIS. NOAA should take the
initiative to convene and coordinate
all of the relevant entities, including
federal and non-federal partners, as
well as scientists, water users and
policy-makers to implement those
aspects of NIDIS that can be
accomplished under existing
authorities and funding.”
www.westgov.org/wga/publicat/nidis.pdf
78
Doing the wrong thing…more precisely
79
Climate Research Impacts Society… Unexpectedly?
80
A pathetic track record for implementation of
environmental assessment and adaptive
management:
Successful
Modeling failure
Implementation failure
81
We can now build some really
impressive looking models
Peregrine falcon
Water birds
Exotic fishes
Cowbird
Sparrows etc.
Native fishes
Aquatic insects
Terrestrial insects
Detritus
Benthic algae
Riparian vegetation
Flow
Turbidity Temperature
Water management regime
82
Early Warning (sub)Systems
• Monitoring and forecasting subsystem
National, regional and local levels
• Risk assessment sub-system
Enable disaster management authorities to generate risk and impact
scenarios
• Preparedness sub-system
Outline and inform actions required to reduce the loss and
damage expected from an impending hazard event: Who? What?
When?
• Communication and public awareness sub-system
Communication/delivery of timely information on impending events,
potential risk scenarios and preparedness strategies to vulnerable
groups
• Evaluation and feedback sub-system
Scale: Who are the actors? What are their perspectives and needs?
What are the entry points for decision-making? What decisions are83
made? How can this process be improved
National Integrated Drought
Information System
Customer defined measures of drought
Research
Monitoring
Prediction
Integrating Tools
Better informed decision making at state, local and individual levels
Proactive
Planning
Impact
Mitigation
Improved
Responses
84
Modify societal characteristics
Social system
•Variation/change
•Exposure
Adjustment process
•Perception
•evaluation
Response
•Choice
•Adoption of practice
Natural Hazard
Disaster
Natural system
Variation/change
•Magnitude
•Duration
•frequency
Hazard effects
Emergency
•Costs and losses
adjustments
•gains
Modify biophysical characteristics
85
Vulnerable
Sector or
Activity
Bounded
ecosystems
such as
coastal,
mountain and
already
stressed
Magnitude
Rates of
Change
State
magnitudes of
vulnerabili ty
for different
magnitudes of
change,
especially
thresholds,
relative to
temperature,
precipitation
or the other
critical
parameters
that create the
vulnerabili ty
State any
critical rates
of change that
affect
vulnerabili ty
Criteria for ŅKeyÓVulnerability
Persistence
Likelihood
Potential for
and
and
Adaptation
reversibility
confidence
Provide
information
on the
li keli hood
that the
vulnerable
sector will be
affected by an
irreversible
im pact and
whether it is
li kely to
persist.
Overall
confidence
and
li keli hood,
but state
confidence
also with any
specifi c
figures or
points.
State capacity
for
adaptation. Is
adaptive
capacity
suffi cient to
delay or
prevent
adverse
im pacts and
at what cost.
Distribution
Provide information
on the distribution of
im pacts Š both
physically and
socially within
countries (not in a
sim ple
developed/developing
dichoto my).
86
Hazard
Vulnerability
EVENT
PREPAREDNESS
Socio-economic National and
Political Economy International Policy
STATUS
Return period,
Duration
Magnitude,Seasonality
Uncertainty
D
building Livelihood
I
Hurricanes
Flood
Drought
Earthquakes
Volcanic
Activity
Landscape
Disease
S
A
S
T
E
R
Self protectionIncome Distribution
surplus
quality
Opportunity
Social Protection
(Building regulations
level of scientific
knowledge/use)
RESILIENCE?
Strength of assets
Generation & allocation
GENDER
Household
Security,Nutrition
Social power&control
Debt crises
Environmental degradation
CULTURE//STATE
Income,Assets Institutional
Discrimination
Support
- Regional
- Local
Recovery of
livelihood
Impacts of previous
interventions Biases, Training
HEALTH Social precaution/
Infrastructure, Individual robustness
Household activities,Access to reliable
potable water, treatment
__________________________________________________________________________________________________
87