(In)forming adaptation decisions: Are we doing and not learning?

Roger S. Pulwarty Climate and Societal Interactions and National Integrated Drought Information System NOAA

“Roughly 20 percent of cities around the globe have developed adaptation strategies” “Two-third of major cities are developing strategies”………..

“In the United States, city, county and state governments have developed more than 100 adaptation plans” “UN-financing initiative, wealthy nations have poured $11 billion into developing countries to help on adaptation in the past few years”

“Resilient New York”

storm surge..$19.5b” proposes more than 250 initiatives to reduce the city’s vulnerability to coastal flooding and

Adapting to what?

Appraisals/evaluations?

The Romans Ignored The AD 205 IPCC Report!

Source: InfoRoma, 2004. www.inforoma.it

DEFERRED MAINTENANCE?

Weather to Climate-A continuum and a deficit

Heat Waves Storm Track Variations Madden-Julian Oscillation El Niño-Southern Oscillation + ?????

Decadal Variability Solar Variability Deep Ocean Circulation Greenhouse Gases 30 DAYS 1 SEASON SHORT-TERM 3 YEARS 10 YEARS INTERANNUAL 30 YEARS 100 YEARS DECADE-TO CENTURY The future (2041-2060): where do the projections agree and why?

1930s 1950s

How have we adapted?

• Infrastructure/assets • Technological process optimization • Institutional and behavioral change or reinforcement • Crisis, learning and redesign

Or ignoring the risk (and the opportunity)

If it’s so easy…why is it so difficult?

The cumulative nature of hazards, extremes and disasters

• Informing warning and response: What do we expect when engaging in interdisciplinary collaborations?

Difficulties of proactive decision-making: Learning and policy windows • Learning, non-learning and response: Limits of a communications framing • What characteristics lead to successful responses? And how do we know?

Information services to support adaptation in changing environments

• Where do science and policy talk to each other and what do they say?

Assessing Drought Early Warning Systems – WMO, NIDIS, UNISDR GFDRR………(Pulwarty et al 2014)

Image- S.Zebiak

Climate Risk Management

(CRM) a large and growing body of work- climate change adaptation, disaster risk management and development sectors, among others.

Martinez et al 2012)

Tribal Principles for Climate Legislation

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Key reports: Large Water Systems

Usually requested…..

• model agreement -convergence • narrowing the projection range • higher-resolution spatial and temporal scales, and improved shorter • time-horizon projections Achievable to what degree? Alternatives

photo courtesy K. Dixon, NOAA GFDL

Taking Stock

(Clark et al 2014)

• GCM re-scaling” methods produce hydroclimate representations with too much drizzle, too small extreme events, and improper representation of spatial scaling characteristics that are relevant to hydrology.

• Choice of statistical versus dynamical downscaling is important: sensitivities obtained from the 4-km WRF simulations differ from current statistically-based guidance being provided to water managers.

• Choice of hydrologic model also affects projection outcomes,-less so if a hydrology model is well calibrated. particularly for metrics that are closely related to the objective function used in calibration.

• Projected outcomes on water resources depend significantly on subjective decisions made in calibrating hydrologic models, such as the choice of forcing data, the choice of calibration scheme, and the choice of objective function

The state of the practice does not fully recognize these uncertainties – many studies are likely ‘overconfident’

Factors that militate timely and effective use of information

•Knowledge deficits and/or usability •Planning inadequacies-personnel institutional, financial, disinterest in the future, •Strategic complexity around values- political/conflict concerns, security,, and lack of consensus •Lack of clarity regarding projected conditions (incl assumptions that go into models being compared), with and without action, and the social and technical feasibility of a proposed action

Beyond the “knowledge-deficit” model: Lessons “identified vs. Lessons learned

If win-win is the outcome, chances are the loser is not at the table Or, is on the menu Why do this if I’m already winning?

1.Acknowledge the cross-scale nature of climate, of early warning and adaptation response Decadal prediction lies between initialized weather or ENSO forecasts, and forced future climate change projections-not just a choice between “extremes” and “trends” Impact assessment and scenario development must approach climate model output far more critically-downscaling is useful but not a substitute for local monitoring-analogs and projections

2. Disciplinary challenges shape problem definitions, scenarios and recommendations

Climate Model Impacts First Vulnerability and Capacity First Scenarios

(IPCC SREX, 2012)

These result in different policy trajectories Decision points

•

operational-incremental advocacy development Cone of Uncertainty

•

constitutive-norms/values learning

“ They will never agree ” said the nineteenth-century wit Reverend Sidney Smith when he saw two people shouting at each other from houses on opposite sides of an Edinburgh street “They are arguing from different premises” A B B1 ?

C

3.

“

Communication

”

is critical but not enough

Broad societal processes that create dynamic pressures and unsafe conditions are not easy to change, yet are fundamental to human vulnerability

• Social process(es) of risk communication are more than “one way” AND more than “two-way” • The “ push ” supply of new information by would-be providers of information/technology , and the “ pull ” demand for new information from would-be learners is never linear • More challenging is an understanding the socialization of lessons learned by particular individuals and organizations through their own, direct trial and error experiences

4. Understanding the rules of the game

Rules for gathering, storing communicating, using and evaluating information are essential elements of operating procedures

Conspicuous over-consumption of information

•Surveillance vs decision modes •Scanning for surprises vs clarifying uncertainties •

Incentives for “ratcheting” over adaptation as baselines change

•

“Information use” as symbolic commitment to rational choice

Extremes in a changing climate

-

How often should criteria for “robustness” be reconsidered?

Understand adaptation as being driven by crises, learning and redesign- Role of “ surprises ” in shaping responses Generate risk profiles and a portfolio of measures-and broader economic, social and environmental benefits Approach climate model output far more critically than at present, especially for impact assessment and scenario development at the local level.

Develop information systems for critical thresholds across climate time and space scales: •Place multiple indicators within a statistically consistent triggering framework cross-correlation •Scenario planning and gaming (based on past, present and projected events)- better understand whether and how best to use probabilistic information with past data, potential surprise and cumulative risks across climate timescales

Climate risk management-governance

Accountability

CRM needs to be located with planning oversight and some fiscal responsibility-provide political authority and policy coherence across sectors.

Emergency management organizations can rarely play that role Efficiency -

only occurs when CRM is carried out in partnership with at-risk sectors and communities and organizations that represent them. Benefits are cost-effectiveness, sustainability, citizenship and social cohesion.

Monitoring and Forecasts

Understanding how decadal variability in different ocean basins impact year to year droughts-influences forecast reliability on seasonal to interannual timescales, global monitoring Improved satellite estimates and in situ measurements of soil moisture and developing a coordinated soil moisture network Estimates of Ground water/surface water interactions during drought especially affecting streamflow and river forecasts Ongoing assessment of the underlying predictability of surface temperature, precipitation, soil moisture, and streamflow affected by climate, land-use and demands on monthly to decadal time scales 24

Analysis of significant past events

Best adaptation practices may be novel configurations of land and water resources and information to support those decisions

SMART Growth Conservation costs savings- 22 water city and district water plans in Colorado-water obtained by conservation is still the cheapest option per AF for development (Kenney et al 2010)

Translation?…….Transfer?……..… Transformation?

IMPACTS VULNERABILITY DEVELOPMENT RESILIENCE Transitions from applications Private vs public

Applied Co-development can become co-optation

Social-ecological Path dependence

Adaptive

Across organizational boundaries

Joint monitoring and joint fact-finding

Key issues-improving the linkages between information and decision-making:

•Quality and Pedigree of information available to decision-makers at all levels •Factors influencing whether or not such information will be used •Factor actors influencing whether risk communications are trusted •Governance structures that facilitate better decision making practice •Prototyping strategies and practices for adapting the decision-making systems to the different levels of decision makers

Sustaining a collaborative framework between research and management

Monitoring & Research Innovation Evaluation Learning Deliberative as well as analytic capabilities Acceptable vs. statically “best” decisions

(IPCC SREX, 2012) 28

Dimensions: Network development and Sustained learning:

•

Knowledge development and management

•

Capacity and coordination

•

Product and delivery(?) systems Jointly assess what is being developed and provided

-

Local entrepreneurs/leadership Make risks and benefits transparent Post-audits

Thanks

“playing with a straight bat

”

1.

One is straightforward about one’s ideas and beliefs (and assumptions), or

2.

One avoids answering questions or giving someone the information he/she wants

Science 8 November 2013: Vol. 342 no. 6159 pp. 696-698 DOI: 10.1126/science.1239569

Are we better off?

(since the NIDIS Act, 2006 PL109-430)

• The number of states, communities, and institutions with improved capacity to inform risk management and reduce exposure to climatic risks • The number of staff in or working with those institutions trained to develop and communicate local drought information and help reduce impacts • The number of research projects that conduct and update drought impacts and user needs assessments in drought-sensitive parts of the US and • The percentage of the U.S. population covered by adequate climate risk and early warning information systems 32

If it is so easy why is it so hard?

The need to “change” in the light of new information is not widely acknowledged

I. The Colorado Basin-An innovation in “adaptation” interim through 2026 Spatial Resolution/ Time Horizon

International-Regional over Decades

Operational Activity

Long-term Planning

Decisions

Operating Criteria and Guidelines Region-wide over 1-2 years Mid-term Operations Sub-basin over 4-6 weeks Short-term Scheduling Single project over 1-7 days Real-time Control Annual Operating Plan Water and Power Schedules Automatic Generation and Control

Landscape changes Tribal Lands in the Four-Corners Region (USGS, NIDIS) Sand Dune Mobility

Stable Sand Dunes = P/PE > 0.31

Partly Active Dunes Fully Active Dunes = P/PE< 0.125

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Scenarios: Navajo Lands-preserving dignity in times and places of change

Through conversations before and during workshops, the team identified the most important and most uncertain climate drivers that will affect conditions over the next 40 years. These were combined in the following matrix. (Also note that temperature increase was a

‘

given

’

so it applies in all scenarios

Shrubland

Ecosystem becomes more susceptible to annual grass invaders. Fate of pines and other trees uncertain. Soil erosion increases. Faunal composition changes.

Flash floods entering caves more often Native grassland replaced by shrubland and exotic annuals Ponderosa pine communities more susceptible to catastrophic fires due to decreasing summer precipitation

Patterns shift – more winter precipitation relative to summer Novel Ecosystem

Climate changes quickly to something like southern SW U.S. and species migration limited. Water table drops; streams go from perennial to intermittent or gone. Soil erosion increases. Many fauna may not be sustainable.

Period of frequent, intense fire followed by decrease in fire because of lack of fuel Tough decisions regarding above-ground mission

Duration and Frequency change little Drought Severity

Changes seen as part of normal variability Other management issues dominate Streams more intermittent, trees dry out Increased evaporation decreases plant productivity somewhat; ecosystem change occurs, but more slowly and/or to lesser degree than in other scenarios.

Patterns change little Extreme Droughts become far more common

Extreme heat events – camp fire bans Decreased water availability Park culls half of the bison herd – limits on carrying capacity Forest is more restricted by moisture than currently. Megafauna capacity decreases because forage production is lower. Water table drops; spring and stream flow decreases or ceases, depending on location.

Mixed-grass Prairie Shortgrass Prairie

Climate information products supporting services (at present) Historical Climatologies Indices Status reports Near real time Data Special Analyses for CC Reviews analysis/data Publications Metadata Web accessible statistics, graphs, Maps Relative status of information STATIC DYNAMIC

Structural Management Operations Public Strategic Planning

Design Safety factors Energy Siting designs Site planning Community health and well being Hazards/warnings National drought Streamflow planning Climate related standards Hazards and health Monthly/seasonal Planning International Resource allocation Markets Food security Demand

• • •

More generally: Understanding uncertainties in hydrologic models

Motivation: The failure of MIPs 

Any two models have a large number of differences, and it is difficult to attribute inter model differences to specific modeling decisions

Approach 

Carefully scrutinize all (subjective) decisions made in model development and application, and evaluate the impact of different options at different points in the modeling process

Conclusions: Quantifying hydrologic model uncertainty  Different process-based hydrological models can be considered small permutations from a master modeling template  Different modeling options can provide the wrong results for the same reasons  Inter-model differences are overwhelmed by uncertainty in model parameters  Quantifying hydrologic model uncertainty requires considering both aleatory and epistemic errors  Given a “complete” representation of dominant hydrologic processes, uncertainty in  process parameterizations can be represented using an ensemble of model parameters.

Epistemic uncertainty associated with process interactions and scaling behavior is still important, and these uncertainties can be represented using an ensemble of different spatial configurations.

 Finally, uncertainty in forcing data can be represented using ensemble methods for spatial meteorological analysis.

 Parameter estimation must be probabilistic, multi-objective, and regionalized

Extremes in a changing climate

-Adaptation research?

How often should criteria for “robustness” be reconsidered?

Understand many adaptations as being driven by crises, learning and redesign- Role of “ surprises ” in shaping responses Generate risk profiles and a portfolio of measures-identifying the broader economic, social and environmental benefits of each measure along with its cost Develop information systems for critical thresholds across climate time and space scales: •Place multiple indicators within a statistically consistent triggering framework cross-correlation among units before a critical threshold •Scenario planning to address problem-definition and characterize multiple uncertainties-technical as well as institutional capacity

Extremes in the context of variability and change:

•Pressure for better information to support planning under changing extremes-rates and transitions •Is a threshold an emergent property of some underlying set of attributes of a system? ( models not calibrated for rapid transitions)

How does new information relate to what is already known? how often should criteria for “robustness” be reconsidered?

•Many public sector applications require a more systematic connection between early warning scenarios and recommended decisions than do private sector applications •More challenging is understanding the socialization of lessons learned by particular individuals and organizations through their own, direct trial and error experiences

Develop information systems for critical thresholds across temporal and spatial scales:

•Approach climate model outputs far more critically than at present, especially for impact assessment and scenario development to support adaptation at the local level •Place multiple indicators within a statistically consistent triggering framework-esp. cross-correlation among units before a critical threshold is reached •Scenario planning (based on past, present and projected events)- better understand whether and how best to use probabilistic information with past data, potential surprise and cumulative risks across climate timescales

Utilities Tribes Feds Energy RISAs CSCs Consultancies Interior NOAA USACE etc.