Transcript Climate Prediction Center Strategy for Developing Climate Forecast Products in Cooperation with Partners Wayne Higgins and Mike Halpert NOAA’s Climate Prediction Center March 4, 2008

Climate Prediction Center
Strategy for Developing Climate Forecast
Products in Cooperation with Partners
Wayne Higgins and Mike Halpert
NOAA’s Climate Prediction Center
March 4, 2008
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Outline
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Message
Role in NOAA Climate Services
Operational Activities
Partnerships
– “White Paper”
 Climate Test Bed
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Message
 Collaborative partnerships are a key element of future
success:
– To gain a predictive understanding of climate variability and change
– To accelerate development & delivery of useful climate products
– To make climate relevant to the daily lives of users
 CPC has a framework to develop climate products with
partners:
– Climate Forecast Product Teams
– Leverage jointly sponsored NCEP and CPO initiatives, such as
Climate Test Bed, to accelerate R2O and O2R
Let’s work together as partners to accelerate development of
climate forecast products that meet user needs.
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Path to NOAA’s Seamless Suite of
Products and Forecast Services…
To Serve Diverse
Customer Base
Observe
e.g., Emergency Managers,
Water Resource Agencies…
-Process
-Assimilate
-Predict
Products & Forecast Services
Central
Guidance
Local
Offices
CPC
Respond &
Feedback
NCEP
IBM Supercomputer
Gaithersburg, MD
Distribute
Research, Development and Technology Infusion
NCEP provides operational support. CPC delivers operational climate forecast products and services.
CPO provides support for research and transition activities to accelerate improvements.
CPC Role in NOAA Climate Services
“CPC serves the public by assessing and forecasting the
impacts of short-term climate variability, emphasizing
enhanced risks of weather-related extreme events, for use
in mitigating losses and maximizing economic gains.”
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Focus: climate forecast products
(weeks, months, seasons, years)
that serve a diverse customer
base

Official Products for the Nation

Forecasts in collaboration with
other NCEP Centers, NOAA line
offices, other agencies and labs

Integral to NOAA Seamless Suite
of Products
2007/08
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Climate Prediction Advancements at NCEP
• Climate Forecast System: first dynamic operational coupled climate forecast model
(implemented Aug 2004) at NCEP
• Climate Test Bed: jointly established by CPO and NCEP in 2005 and focused on accelerating
improvements in the Climate Forecast System and related seasonal forecast products
• Increases in the skill of CPC official seasonal outlooks (20% or more; O’Lenic et al. 2007) due in
part to CFS and to CTB milestones (e.g. consolidation tool).
(0.5 Month Lead – 4 yr running avg vs. GPRA Goal)
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Operational Activities
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Monitoring Products
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Outlooks (GPRA Measure - U.S. Seasonal Temp.)
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Assessment Products
How do we accelerate
improvements in the above?
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Outreach and Feedback
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Partnerships
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Applied Research
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Transition Activities (R2O; O2R)
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Climate Monitoring Products
– Primary modes of climate variability
(ENSO, MJO, NAO, PNA, AO,...)
– Atmospheric Circulation
(global troposphere and stratosphere)
– Storm Tracks and Blocking
– Monsoons
– Oceanic Conditions (global)
– Precipitation and Surface Temperature
(global and US)
– Drought (US, North America; NIDIS)
Note:
There has been a concerted effort to improve and
expand the CPC monitoring product suite in response
to user community requests.
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Climate Outlook Products
 Tropical Pacific SSTs
 Seasonal and Monthly Outlooks for Precipitation & Temperature
(3rd Thu. of the month; Monthly update)
 Seasonal Drought Outlook
(1st and 3rd Thu. of the month)
 Seasonal Hurricane Outlooks
(Atlantic and Eastern Pacific - issued in May, updated in Aug.)
 6-10 Day (week-1) and 8-14 Day (week-2) Precipitation and
Temperature Outlooks
(updated daily 3:00pm)
 Day 3-14 Hazards Assessments (US, Global Tropics)
Note:
We recognize that we need to do more than T & P – and in
particular – more climate-weather type products, more
variables. What are your needs?
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Climate Assessment Products
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Climate Diagnostics Bulletin (monthly, available on web)
ENSO Diagnostics Discussion (monthly, PDF and MS WORD)
Weekly ENSO / MJO updates (.ppt, PDF versions available on web)
Seasonal Climate Summaries (available on web)
Special Climate Assessments (extreme events due to persistent
patterns, available on web)
 Annual Climate Assessment (multi-agency summary published in
the AMS Bulletin)
 Hazards Assessments (US, Africa, and Global Tropics) – Day 3-14
– Weather / Climate Connection
Note:
These products should connect climate to people’s lives.
How should we expand and improve the current suite of
products to do this?
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Partnerships

Collaborative partnerships are a key element of CPCs future success:
– to gain a predictive understanding of climate variability and change
– to accelerate development & delivery of useful climate products
– to enhance the value of NOAA’s climate services

The partnership “landscape” is complex.
– NOAA
– Federal Labs and Programs
– Academia
– Federal Mission Agencies
– Emergency Managers and Planners
– Federal State and Local Governments
– International
– Industry
– Media
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Partners include both the providers and users of climate information.
Regional partnerships are increasingly important.
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NOAA Center for Weather and Climate Prediction
at the UMD Research Park (M-Square)
 268,762 RSF; includes 800+ Feds,
contractors and visiting scientists
• 5 NCEP Centers
• NESDIS research & satellite services
• OAR Air Resources Laboratory
 40 spaces for visiting scientists
Construction Schedule
Date
ConstructionStart
May 9, 2007
Move Start
Dec 2008
Move Complete
Summer 2009
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CPC/CTB “White Paper”
Strategy for Developing Climate Forecast
Products in Cooperation with Partners
Table of Contents
Executive Summary
1.0 Background and Purpose
2.0 Climate Forecast Products for Decision Support
3.0 Implementation Strategy
4.0 Future Priorities
5.0 Budget
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APPENDIX A. Guidelines for Adding Models
APPENDIX B. CPC-RISA Workplans
APPENDIX C. Climate Products List
APPENDIX D. Collaborative Transition Projects
APPENDIX E. Strategic Challenges
APPENDIX F. Acronyms
APPENDIX G. Contact Information
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CPC-RISA Program
RISA
Contacts
Areas of Collaboration
Southeast Climate
Consortium (SECC)
Muthuvel Chelliah (CPC)
Jim Jones, Keith Ingram, Jim
O’Brien
Downscaling CPC Outlooks, Regional ENSO Impacts;
Crop Yield Forecasting; Applications of high resolution
GCM,CFS hindcasts.
Western Water Assessment
(WWA)
Michelle L’Heureux (CPC)
Andrea Ray
Intraseasonal forecasts and applications; Decision
support related to drought mitigation and response; user
feedback to enhance CPC products.
Climate Assessments for
the Southwest (CLIMAS)
Ed O’Lenic (CPC)
Holly Hartmann
Improve users’ ability to access and interact with, and
make decisions based upon CPC outlooks.
Alaska Center for Climate
Assessment and Policy
(ACCAP)
Jon Gottschalck (CPC)
Sarah Fleisher Trainor
Development and improved utilization of storminess
related products, aid Alaska’s drought / fire related
challenges through better application of CPC official
outlooks and the use of new precipitation databases.
Pacific Climate Information
System (PaCIS)
Luke He (CPC)
Eileen Shea, Jim Weyman
Pacific Rainfall Atlas; Climate Teleconferences and User
Training, Research for Improving Climate Service and
Forecasts for the Pacific region.
California Application
Program (CAP)
Kingtse Mo (CPC)
Dan Cayan, John Roads
Soil moisture analyses from 4 NLDASs and regional
reanalysis, CFS-based drought forecasts, MME
applications to SI forecasts, week 1, week 2 E, P, soil
moisture relationships from NLDAS.
University of Washington
Center for Science in the
Earth System (CSES)
Doug LeComte (CPC)
Dennis Lettenmaier
Enhancements to U.W. surface water monitor, Improved
tools for Drought Monitor and Drought Outlook.
Goal: to meet RISA-customer needs for climate forecast products
Activities: exchanges via CPC & RISA focal points; workplans tailored to customer needs.
Sample CPC-RISA Workplan:
RISA: Alaska Center for Climate Assessment and Policy (ACCAP)
CPC/CTB Contact: Jon Gottschalck
RISA Contacts:
Sarah Fleisher Trainor (Outreach Coordinator, ACCAP)
Area of Collaboration:
• Development and improved use of storminess products
• Aid Alaska’s drought and fire related challenges through
better application of CPC official outlooks and new
precipitation databases
Status:
• Prioritized stakeholder feedback from July 2007 storminess
related teleconference
• Ongoing research towards improved storminess guidance
at extended ranges (week 2 – seasonal)
• Strategy being finalized to aid Alaska drought / fire related
challenges
SEE POSTERS
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Conversion of CPC Monitoring and Forecast
Products to GIS Format
Viviane Silva Lloyd Thomas, Mike Halpert and Wayne Higgins
BEFORE
AFTER
Interoperability
&
Zoom In
The CPC conversion to GIS started at CPAS 2 years ago!
Climate Products List
(Compiled by Kelly Redmond (WRCC) based on NOAA RISA Program input)
General Comments:
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Output and products geared to the regional level (most recurrent theme).
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Access to all forecast elements, rather than just focusing on temperature and
precipitation at the surface, including lower troposphere, planetary boundary
layer properties, cloud cover information, daily and hourly temperature, time
series, and wind speed and direction.
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Model and forecast verification data.
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Tropical cyclone and tropical storm predictions (from a few weeks to
seasonal time scales).
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Physical basis for / elucidation of / existence of / role of / properties of / all
the “oscillations”: ENSO, PDO, NPO, AMO, SOI, AO, NAO, MJO
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More detailed and sustained interaction, formal and informal, through
workshops, seminars, and meetings.
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Climate Products List
(Compiled by Kelly Redmond (WRCC) based on input from NOAA RISA Program)
Topical Area
Variables
Hydrology
Seasonal evolution of snowpack; water budget; min T;
groundwater recharge; evapotranspiration budgets; mountain
recharge; orographic enhancement; cloud microphysics;
aerosol interactions; rain / snow levels
Coastal issues
Inundation; sea level rise; climate variability / change issues in
low-lying areas; sea breezes; upwelling and fisheries and
coastal ecosystems
Air Quality
Inversions (individual & population; trends);
Boundary layer characteristics (stability properties; trends;
transport winds; pollution sources, sinks, trajectories; smoke
dispersion and trajectories)
Drought
Soil moisture budget; evapotranspiration; causes of droughts;
feedback mechanisms; tracking mechanisms; NIDIS / DEWS
atmospheric effects on NDVI; multi-scale descriptors; SPI
Energy
Factors affecting demand (temperature, ventilation,
cloudiness); sea breezes; hydropower; wind power forecasts
and trends; solar energy forecasts and trends
Ecological Health
Fire and climate; downslope wind events (Santa Ana,
Sundowner, etc); relationships to large scale; insects; pests,
Pathogens; aquatic conditions; wildlife survival conditions;
wildlife food supply; managed agriculture
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Framework for Developing
Climate Products with Partners
(“White Paper”)
• A focused Climate Forecast Tool Development effort that
builds on the success of the CTB and includes opportunities to
develop new and improved tools; and
• Climate Forecast Product Teams that builds on the success of
the CPC-RISA program to work with partners to leverage the
improved tools and accelerate the development and delivery of
user-demanded climate forecast products.
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Climate Forecast Tool Development
Efforts to consolidate climate model forecasts have improved CPC’s official
outlooks.
Future tool development efforts will build on CPC’s consolidation:
- use new models with independent skill;
- provide objective verification of all models and official forecasts
Develop guidelines to add a new model to CPC’s consolidation:
- reproducibility on NCEP computer;
- hindcast runs;
- sufficient ensemble members and leads; key output variables;
- available in real-time for dissemination.
CTB (www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/ctb) competitive grants program provides
resources
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Climate Forecast Product Teams
CPC wants to organize two teams that will serve as the functional core of the CPC
strategy to accelerate development of climate products in collaboration with
partners.
• The “Climate Products Outreach Team” (CPOT)
• The “Climate Products Implementation Team” (CPIT)
CPOT encourages and engages partnerships. The CPOT is partially mobilized
(CPC-RISA program).
CPIT focuses on implementation.
While the two teams are charged to identify or implement climate forecast
products, respectively, they also have complementary functions. A lot has been
accomplished but additional resources are required.
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Message
 Collaborative partnerships are a key element of future
success:
– To gain a predictive understanding of climate variability and change
– To accelerate development & delivery of useful climate products
– To make climate relevant to the daily lives of users
 CPC has a framework to develop climate products with
partners:
– Climate Forecast Product Teams
– Leverage jointly sponsored NCEP and CPO initiatives, such as
Climate Test Bed, to accelerate R2O and O2R
Let’s work together as partners to accelerate development of
climate forecast products that meet user needs.
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NCEP and CPO Climate Support:
Climate Test Bed
Climate
Community
Climate
Test Bed
Research &
Development
NOAA
Climate
Forecast
Operations
Mission: To accelerate the transition of scientific advances
from the climate research community to improved
23 NOAA climate forecast products and services.
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NCEP and CPO Climate Support:
Climate Test Bed
 The CTB is a resource to accelerate scientific advances to operations
– Bridge between research & operations
– Embraces the R2O and O2R paradigms
 The CTB emphasizes high profile science activities
– CFS/GFS Improvements (CFSRR)
– Multi-model ensembles (IMME, NMME)
– Objective climate forecast products and applications (drought / NIDIS)
 Competitive Grants Program
 CTB-COLA Seminar Series
 CPC-RISA Program
 Distinguished Visiting Scientist Program (FY09)
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Ongoing Strategic Priorities
• Accelerate improvements in the CFS through the
Research to Operations (R2O) &
Operations to Research (O2R) paradigm
• Enhance NCEP’s role in the transition process
• Be a partner within the multi model ensemble
enterprise (IMME and NMME strategy)
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Challenges for CTB
 CTB infrastructure
– Computing and human support for accelerating R2O
– O2R Support – people, data access, helpdesk, training – to
accelerate R2O
 Multi-Model Ensembles
– National Strategy
 Computer resources for generating hindcasts
– Concept of Operations
 Memoranda of Agreement with partners (International and US)
for exchanges of operational models & forecast data
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Summary
 CFS and CTB advancing nicely
 NCEP’s role in R2O implies greater support for
O2R. (Research and transition activities need to
build off the operational infrastructure.)
 New NOAA Center for Weather and Climate
Prediction should help facilitate these.
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