Transcript A Look at Climate Prediction Center’s Products and Services

Climate Prediction Center (CPC)
Services, Products, Partnerships, Potential
for the
PRIDE Alaska Coastal Climatologies
Wind/Wave Workshop
Jim Laver
August 2-3, 2005
www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov
CPC Contribution to Climate Services
• Mission: Assess and Predict short-term climate variability
“short-term” = next week, month, season(s), out to 1-year;
and consider the longer term context
• Responsibilities & Scope:
Deliver operational climate “nowcasts” and predictions
Make them consistent - globally, nationally and regionally
Provide an historical context – with help from NCDC
Improve them!
• Vision: Climate services as reliable and applicable as
weather services
Climate Products
• Global Environmental Monitoring:
Where: atmosphere, oceans, land, ice
What: temperature, precipitation, circulation, drought, SST
Alaska/Arctic parameters?
• Climate Outlooks:
Where: U. S., U. S. Interests abroad, oceans
What: temperature & precipitation anomalies
hazards, drought, hurricane season, El Niño/La Niña
Probabilities of extremes? Storminess? Others for AK?
First Order, Cooperative, Automated,…
• CPC is interested in providing real-time monitoring products
• A historical climatology is required for proper historical context
• Focus has been on Temperature & Precipitation; Other Parameters??
Products – via CPC Home Page
Includes:
AO, NAO,
PDO, AAO
U. S. Hazards Assessment – Dec 2003
Example: explanation of 8-14 day forecast map.
N
50% chance A,
33% chance N,
17% chance B
33.3% chance A,
33.3% chance N,
33.3% chance B
N
A
N
N
Week2 Outlook
27% chance A,
33% chance N,
40% chance B
CAS
CDC
OCN+skill mask
OFFICIAL
Scripps
OCN
Seasonal Outlook Tools
CFS
IRI
ECCA
Improving Services & Products
Through Partnerships
• National Weather Service: NCEP centers, regional offices,
local offices (WFOs), river forecast centers
• NOAA: research labs (e.g., Boulder, Princeton, Miami),
applied research funding (Office of Global Programs)
• Inter-Agency: USDA (drought, global crops), FEMA (hazards),
NASA (outlooks; ozone), EPA & DoD (ultraviolet forecasts),
USAID (humanitarian support), DoE (degree days)
• Academic & International: universities, international desks,
bi-lateral agreements, World Meteorological Organization,
Pacific partners, International Research Institute (Columbia U.)
Potential:
Areas of Common Interest?
• NOAA’s Climate Test Bed – accelerate improvements in
climate predictions – subseasonal, seasonal, interannual,
decadal trends?
• Multi-model dynamical ensembles
• Reanalysis  Ongoing Analysis of the Climate System,
Coupled Ocean-Atmosphere, Regional, Arctic,…
• Assessment of economical benefits of long-range forecasts
• Global ocean monitoring and modeling (GODAS)
• Describe current state of the climate better - “Nowcasting”
• New product possibilities ?? - forecasts of opportunity,
extremes, Week3, Week4, Winds, Waves, Storms
Reprocessing and Reanalysis are Essential
Given the continuing improvement in our understanding
of climate observations and the need for long time
series, reprocessing is a hallmark of every climate
observing system. Europe, Japan and the US have
ongoing efforts, but risks and limitations abound.
National/international coordination
is essential to a successful program
GEOSS must have an OACS!
Workshop on Ongoing Analysis of the Climate System
18-20 August 2003, Boulder, Colorado
The Domain:
Regional Reanalysis Domain
How does it complement the
proposed Arctic Reanalysis?
The End
(extra slides follow)
CPC and NOAA’s Goals
CPC
NOAA’s Climate Program Matrix and
Relationship to 2005 NOAA Strategic Plan
Understand Climate Variability and Change to Enhance Society’s Ability to Plan and
Respond
OUTCOMES
1. A predictive understanding of the global climate
system on time scales of weeks to decades with
quantified uncertainties sufficient for making
informed and reasoned decisions
2. Climate-sensitive sectors and the climate-literate
public effectively incorporating NOAA’s climate
products into their plans and decisions
Observations &
Analysis
Climate Forcing
Predictions &
Projections
(includes CPC)
Climate &
Ecosystems
Regional
Decision Support