Transcript Slide 1

Water Productivity and Upgrading Rainfed
Results from the Comprehensive Assessment of
Co-Sponsors:Water Management in Agriculture
Setting the Scene
Most hungry and poor people live where water
challenges pose a constraint to food production
the semi-arid and arid tropics: 840 million malnourished people remaining
Hunger Goal Indicator: Prevalence of undernourished in
developing countries, percentage 2001/2002 (UNstat, 2005)
The 840 million undernourished.
Vulnerable to loss of water
Dependent on Water for Agriculture?
Smallholder farmers
Employment
Urban poor
Rural landless
Pastoralists, fishers,
forest-dependent
Lower Food Prices
Source: FAO data, graphic from SEI
Nutrition, food security, income
Investing in Irrigation
2,500
320
280
Irrigation (million hectares)
240
200
1,500
160
Food price index (1990=100)
1,000
120
WB lending (1990 constant price)
80
500
40
0
2005
2000
1995
1990
1985
1980
1975
1970
1965
0
1960
Million US$
2,000
Water Scarcity 2000
Little or no water scarcity
Physical water scarcity
Approaching physical water scarcity
Economic water scarcity
Not estimated
Reasons for poverty, hunger, water scarcity,
and gender inequity are political and
institutional, not technical
• Support institutions need to be able to better
support women to reach MDGs
• Need more informed negotiations to make
difficult choices
• More effort is required to clarify rights to
land and water to promote investments.
• No blue print approach
The Water-Food-Environment Dilemma
The Dilemma:
• Major investments in water have helped
economic growth, prevented famine and
achieved record low food prices
• But agriculture drives water scarcity and
environmental degradation.
• But poor people need more water for food
and livelihoods
• Where will it come from? Who gets it?
Debates on the way forward
• Relative investments
in small and large,
rainfed and irrigated
• Role of trade
• The prioritization of
ecosystem water
needs
• The role of
agriculture itself in
poverty alleviation
The CA combined a diverse group to
engage in these debates
The CA and the Millennium Development Goals
How can water for food be developed
and managed to…
• Help end poverty and hunger?
• Ensure environmentally
sustainable water-agriculture
practices?
• Find the balance between food and
environmental security?
How much more food – future meat demands
Meat demand in kg/cap/yr
World
Sub-Saharan Africa
East Asia
OECD
How much more cereals?
Kg/cap/yr
World
Sub-Saharan Africa
East Asia
OECD
Total food demand nearly doubles by 2050
3500
1800
2500
1600
3000
2000
1400
2500
1200
1500
2000
1500
1000
800
1000
600
1000
500
200
0
0
2000
food
400
500
2025
feed
Grain
2050
0
2000
2025
2050
2000
2025
2050
other
Sugarcane
Vegetables
Water (ET) demand doubles if no increases in
water productivity
How can we produce enough food for 2 to 3
billion more people, and meet the MDGs on
poverty, hunger and environment?
Vital Questions:
• How much more water will we need?
• Where will it come from?
• What type of water management?
Where to find the water? Options:
1. Expand irrigated areas – divert more “blue
water” from rivers and aquifers
2. Expand rainfed areas – turn more natural area
in to arable land – use more “green water”
3. Increase water productivity: produce more with
less water, i.e. more crop per drop, but also
more animal products with less water
4. Manage demand – diets, reducing postharvest losses from farm to fork
5. Trade in virtual water
Dependence on green and blue water 2000
787
219
654
239
1692
907
1505
Areas in green: agriculture
mainly under rainfed
Areas in blue: agriculture
mainly under irrigation
Circles depict total crop
depletion
August 2006
1080
114
Burkina Faso: Relation between rainfall and cereal production
250
800
National rainfall index
600
National rainfall index: Variation from trend (mm)
Cereal production
150
400
100
200
50
0
0
1960
1970
1980
1990
2000
-50
-200
-100
-400
-150
-600
-200
-250
-800
Years
Total cereal production - Variation from trend ('000 tons)
200
Water Productivity
• Physical Water Productivity
– Kilograms produce per unit of water (ET or
diverted)
• Economic Water productivity
– Value per unit of water (ET or diverted)
Water Productivity (m3/ET) per kg)
Where can gains in physical water productivity be made?
Highest potential for WP
gains, usually in rainfed
areas
3
Potential for water
productivity gains small –
already met.
2
1
22
44
66
88
Yield (kg/ha)
18
66
18
71
18
76
18
81
18
86
18
91
18
96
19
01
19
06
19
11
19
16
19
21
19
26
19
31
19
36
19
41
19
46
19
51
19
56
19
61
19
66
19
71
19
76
19
81
19
86
19
91
19
96
20
01
yield in ton/ha
Growth in yields
10
9
8
7
6
5
4
3
2
1
0
USA
SSA
L America
China
A Range of Ag Water Management Options
Upgrade Rainfed Agriculture
Water management in rainfed areas deserves more
attention
Enhance Water Productivity
Soil-water management
Supplementing rainfall with a little blue water at the
right time
Water harvesting, groundwater for source
Soil fertility plus water – synergistic effect
Investments in small scale water managements show quick
returns, do not necessarily require large public funding
Can benefit a lot of people
Making it happen
• Managing risk is a key – create a good
environment to invest in agricultural inputs
• Water at the right time is part of the risk
management strategy (storage)
• Extension – more on how to manage water
(why doesn’t Ministry of Water Resources
look after upgrading RF systems?)
• Step up the scale of research and attention to
the topic
What
about
irrigation?
Figure 1. Irrigated Area: 1961-1998
300
Wo rld
250
200
Develo p ing C o untries
150
Asia
100
Develo p ed C o untries
50
0
1955
Afric a
1960
Afric a
1965
Asia
So urc e: FAO 2000
1970
1975
Develo p ed C o untries
1980
1985
1990
Develo p ing C o untries
1995
Series2
2000
What about large scale irrigation?
The era of rapid expansion of irrigated
agriculture is over – but need to
improve existing systems
• Irrigation development - viable option
for poor countries where agriculture is
the major component of GNP
• Even if area of large scale irrigation
doubles, impact on food is small – only
8% will come from large scale irrigation
•
Are conditions right – human capacity,
institutions, markets?
Kumasi
Timbuktu
Informal, small-scale irrigation is big in Africa
Formal irrigation sector
• Area developed (22 schemes):
• Actually irrigated area:
Informal irrigation sector
• Irrigated area around
cities in central Ghana:
Source: IWMI
Ghana
8,750 ha
5,200 ha
45,000 ha
Significance for livelihood support
Vegetable irrigation
Formal
Informal
Distance from water
source
88% >500 m
65% <100 m
Cost of production
(US$/acre)
2240
160
Gross Revenue
(US$/acre)
2860
530
Net returns
(US$/acre)
620
370
B/C ratio
1.3
3.3
Source: IWMI
Economic Productivity – more value per drop
• Increasing yield per unit of blue or green water
• Changing from low to high value crops (ie wheat
to flowers)
• Reallocating water from low to higher valued
uses (ie from agriculture to cities)
• Increase benefits: health and value of ecological
services
• Decrease costs: inputs, social, health and
environmental costs
• Obtain multiple benefits per unit of water (ie use
water for drinking and agriculture)
Multiple Use Systems
More Value Per Drop
Multiple-use systems – integrating
domestic water, irrigation, fisheries,
livestock – provide income, nutrition
and health benefits, and improve water
productivity.
• Provide women with opportunities
• But irrigation needs to adjust to manage
for multiple uses
In Conclusions
• Investments in water and agriculture essential to
meet MDGs on poverty and hunger
• Upgrading rainfed and small scale water
management are keys
• Investments needed in human capacity
– Education – integrated approaches to water
management
– Research to adapt to local conditions
– Institutional reform to support sustainable agricultural
water management
Thank you
Per capita per day calorie supply
3,500
3,250
Calorie supply (Kcal)
3,000
Developed
2,750
Acceptable Level
2,500
Asia
World
South Asia
2,250
2,000
Sub-Saharan Africa
1,750
1955
1960
1965
World
1970
1975
Developed Countries
1980
1985
Developing Countries
1990
1995
Sub Saharan Africa
2000
2005
South Asia
Source: FAOSTAT, 2001
It takes a litre of water to produce every calorie, on average
Exploitable yield gap in SSA rain fed areas more than 4
tons/ha
Maize
Maximum attainable yield 6 ton/ha
8
6
high
4
medium
Actual yield 1.4 ton/ha
2
Exploitable yield gap
Tons per hectare
10
low
AT 2030
FAO data
0
1960
1970
1980
1990
2000
2010
2020
2030
2040
2050
Yield growth projections:
low = 20% of yield gap bridged; med = 40% of yield gap bridged
high = 80% of yield gap bridged
* Based on GAEZ attainable yields
Exploitable yield gap in OECD rain fed areas less than 0.5 tons/ha
10
Maize
Maximum attainable yield 9.1 ton/ha
Exploitable yield gap
Tons per hectare
Actual yield 8.6 ton/ha
8
6
FAO data
4
2
AT 2030
0
1960
1970
1980
1990
2000
2010
2020
2030
2040
2050
* Based on GAEZ attainable yields