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Enough Water for Enough food? Trends and Prospects in Water Management for Agriculture David Molden IWMI 3500 One liter of water produces one calorie on average Developed countries in perCalories Food capita per day) Supply (total calories FoodSupply 3000 Threshold for national food security World Asia 2500 Sub-Saharan Africa 2000 1500 1961 1966 1971 1976 1981 1986 1991 1996 2001 2006 Will there be enough water? More people – 6.5 to 9 billion people by 2050 More calories & more meat, fish, milk More food production – need to double grain production by 2050 More water for food – if practices don’t change, water needs for agriculture will double Something has to change Water Scarcity and Climate Change Some areas wetter, some areas drier Investing in Irrigation 2.5 320 280 2.0 240 July 2008 Food price index 200 1.5 160 Irrigation Jan 2009 Living Planet index Freshwater 1.0 120 World Bank lending for irrigation 80 0.5 40 Irrigation in SSA 0 0 1960 1965 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 Growth in Yields IPCC – yields in SSA will decline by 50% because of climate change United States It is possible to more than double yields in SSA in spite of climate change. China Latin America Sub-Saharan Africa Key Trends in SSA Rapid Water Development • Hydropower/energy • Rapid urban growth • The role of China • “Land and Water Grabs” • Private sector – contract farming, markets • Transboundary water concerns • Growth of informal water economies Informal Water Economies Water Management Opportunities Major Pathways to Meet Future Food & Water Demands 1. Improve water productivity (more food/water) – Irrigation systems – Rainfed systems 2. Expand irrigated & rainfed agriculture 3. Promote trade from highly productive to less productive regions 4. Manage demand, consume and waste less Get water to poor people, use it better Around 70% of the world’s under-nourished live in rural areas where non-agricultural livelihood options are limited. Improve and Safeguard Water Access Access to Technologies Irrigation potential developed: Egypt, Morocco, Somalia, South Africa > 75% Botswana, Sudan, Zimbabwe, Madagascar, Mali, Malawi, Uganda 50-75% Rest < 50% % Irrigated Land INDIA: ~50 SSA: 5 Upgrade Water Management in Rainfed Landscapes Rainfed land has the highest potential for poverty reduction and water productivity gains. Upgrade Rainfed Agriculture with a range of water management options – pumps, water harvesting, soil moisture, supplemental irrigation, irrigation. Making it happen • Seek opportunities: – AWM falls between institutional cracks – Failure to focus on women • Focus on agriculture, water access, drinking water & hydropower • Its not just about technologies, but about markets, institutions, capacity Thank you