Transcript Slide 1

Merging space, time, chemistry and
environmental media: Monitoring
challenges
WRAP Monitoring Workshop
Chandler, Arizona
May 15, 2008
Rich Scheffe, EPA-OAR
Acknowledgments
• Everyone
• WRAP-RPO’s National Level Impact on
Environmental Assessments
– Gap filling IMPROVE samplers in center of
CONUS
– VIEWS and related TSS
– NH3 emissions modeling
– Accelerating SOA treatment in CMAQ
simply, Arithmetic injustice
• Greater than 95% of air pollutant mass
is located above 100m,
yet we (air program community) focus 95 % of our
characterization on the bottom 10
meters
{compromises both predictive and current
characterization phenomena}
Topics
• Integration drivers
– Themes from 2004 NAS study
• Multiple-pollutant, - media; accountability
– Trend of lowed high volume air quality standards (O3, PM)
– Relative economic growth distribution globally
– Convergence of non-cancer causing health effect mechanisms
across pollutants
– Increasing technology
– Decreasing (relative) measurement resources
– Climate-AQ interactions
• Information technology and data integration systems
• Monitoring thoughts
Obstacles to improved observation
operations and design
• Decaying(?) infrastructure
• Reliance on compliance type
measurements and related FRM/FEMs
• Lack of market incentives
• Inadequate technology transfer from
research to operations
Emerging Challenges for Air Policy
•
•
•
•
•
Developing Multiple pollutant integrated management strategies
Assessing and Protecting Ecosystem Health
Multiple spatial scales of interest
Intercontinental and Cross-Border Transport
Maintaining AQM System Efficiency in the face of
Changing Climate
• Ongoing Assessments and feedbacks of program progress
(accountability)
Air Toxics
• History of emissions standards setting
processes
• General characterization of risk
Nexus of ozone, PM2.5 (2003-5) and air toxics (NATA 1999)
High Risk Counties often Coincide with Locations where
Criteria Pollutant Issues are Significant .
Draft
Multimedia Assessments
• Start with NAPAP (Acid rain, Title 4)
– Interest waning as ozone, then PM2.5 emerged as
dominant air quality interests starting in the late
1980’s
• 2004 NAS AQ Report driving EPA, AQ
community
– Reorganization
– Resource allocations
– New NARSTO MP-MM-ACC assessment
• NASA participation requested
Integration across pollutants and media: tradeoffs and optimum strategies?
Primary Sources
SVOC
VOC
CO
NO
(HAPs)
O3
OH
RO2
HO2
hν
OH
Hg
O3
HNO3
OH,
O3
OH
hν NO2
OH
gases
SO2
HAP
metals
Hgo,Hg2
NH3
H2SO4
particles
Organic
PM
Nitrate
PM
Sulfate
PM
Chemical
Deposition
ACCOUNTABILITY
Accountability and Indicators Pipeline
Source emissions
Direct NO, SO2, VOC,
CO, metals,
Increasing influence in
confounding factors and
perceived value to public policy
Ambient precursors and intermediates
NO, NOy, CO, VOC, SO2, metals,
radicals, peroxides
Ambient target species
O3, PM, HAPs
Secondary and deposition loads
Visibility, acidification,
eutrophication, metals
Exposures
Inhalation, digestion
Health effects
Asthma,
cardio-pulmonary ↓,
Cancer, death
Ecosystem + effects
Defoliation, Visibility
↓ biodiversity,
Metals concentration
Perceived (measured?)
Life quality
Increasing confidence
In characterization
Feedback/correction
Largest decline in ozone occurs in and downwind of EGU NOx
emissions reductions (2002-2004)
(analysis constrained by absence ambient NOx data)
Decline in “Seasonal Average”
8-Hour Daily Maximum Ozone
EGU NOx Tons Reduced
Decrease from 2002 to 2004 (Adjusted Data)
Met. Adj.
Tons Reduction
-33,000 - 0
0 - 27,000
Decrease in ppb
-3 ≤ D
-5 ≤ D < -3
28,000 - 73,000
-8 ≤ D < -5
D < -8
74,000 - 110,000
120,000
The major EGU NOx emissions reductions occurs after 2002 (mostly NOx SIP Call)
Average rate of decline in ozone between 1997 and 2002 is 1.1%/year.
Average rate of decline in ozone between 2002 and 2004 is 3.1%/year.
GOME Satellite NO2 Trends (1995-2002)
Richter et al., 2005
Courtesy NOAA, Kim et al.
Satellites provide best source of ambient NO2: Accountability and Trends
Figure 20. Left - superimposed Eastern U.S. emission and combined GOME and SCIAMACHY NO2 1997-2002 trends (Kim et al., 2006);
right - GOME NO2 trends from 1995 – 2002 (after Richter, 2005). Clear evidence of reductions in midwest U.S. and European NOx emissions, and
increased NOx generated in Eastern Asia.
Figure 21.
2004 OMI NO2 column images aggregated for all Fridays (left) and Sundays (right) indicating weekend/weekday patterns
associated with reduced Sunday emissions (source, Husar).
MANAGING MULTIPLE SPATIAL
SCALES
Evolutional change in National Air Pollution Management
Biogenics
Regional science
Initial CAA
8-hr ozone
PM2.5
(annual driver)
Regional
Rules
1970
1990
2000
New PM
Standards
Daily/annual
drivers
2010
Climate-AQ
Hemispherical
Transport
2050
Local/urban
Regional
Hemispheric
Hemispheric > 1000 km
Regional > 200km
Urban 15–50 km
Local< 5 km
metals
UFs, Source
Specific
PM, gases
PAN
Primary
PM2.5
HNO3
O3 Hg
HAPs VOC
methane
O3
Hg
Secondary
CHC
CO2
CO
POPs
Secondary
Primary
PM2.5
PM2.5
Hg
VOCs
PM2.5 dust
NOx
OC (fires)
PAN
International transport/climate
interactions Scale: global/regional
April 2001 Dust Transport Event Observed from TOMS
April 9/8
April 12/11
April 10/9
April 13/12
April 11/10
April 14/13
2006 Dust Transport Event Observed from CALIPSO
5 km
3 km
David Winker
New findings on roadway pollution
High exposure to ultrafine
particles, CO, other
pollution near roadway
Increased risk near and on
roadways
Relative Particle Number,
Mass, Black Carbon, CO
Concentration near a
major LA freeway
Example: New Haven, CT
70% of block group centroids are within 500m from a major road
>10,000 ADT
Factors affecting a health outcome
Physical State
Mental State
outcome
Pollution dose
Genetic Disposition
Diet
Moving toward
Multi-Pollutant Analytical Framework
Future = National Air Pollutant Assessment
Legend
Modeling Platform
In Place
Emissions Inventory
Control Strategies
Ambient Data
Requires development
Air Quality Modeling
Regional
Local
Spatial Surfaces
Criteria Pollutants
Exposure/Risk Analysis
e.g., PHASE
Air Toxics
Ecosystems
Exposure/Risk Analysis
Exposure/Risk Analysis
Benefits Assessment
Benefits Assessment
Benefits Assessment
Maximizing space/time/composition through systems
integration
• Integration of
systems to
improve
– air quality models
for forecast
– Current and
– Retrospective
assessments
• Global-Regional
Air Quality
Connections
• Climate-AQ
connections
Total column depth
(through Satellites)
Optimized air chemistry
AQ model results
Characterizations
Land AQ Monitors
Vertical Profiles
Integrated Observation- Modeling
Simple integration of of Model outputs and observations; Eastern U.S.fused PM2.5
surface
Parallel Information Technology solutions to
enable integrated assessments
Mercury Deposition From All Sources: 2001
Mercury – a multiple scale, multiple media
Assessment challenge
Mercury Deposition from US Power Plants: 2001
Mercury Deposition from US Power Plants: 2020 with CAIR &
CAMR
Questions
• How can efficiencies across observation networks be
enabled?
• What are reasonable roles of space-based and ground
based agencies?
• How can GEOSS and related organizing structures
help?
• How do we commit to the pain of integration?....
harmonization …beyond QA/QC..(across and within
systems and time trends)
• What drives observation design? And other top-down,
bottom-up conundrums…
Fine Particle Reductions Work
Steubenville
S
1.3
Rate Ratio
1.2
Kingston
H
St. Louis
L
Watertown
1.1
T
Topeka
P T
Portage
L
1
H
W
S
PM pollution (including
sulfates) declines
accompanied by
reduced mortality risk
0.9
W
0.8
0.7
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
PM2.5  g/m3
Layden et al (2006). Effect of Reduction in Fine Particulate Air Pollution and on Mortality: A extended follow-up in of the Harvard Six Cities Adult Cohort
relatively straightforward emissions strategy
20
SO2
Million Tons
15
10
NOx
Projected, w/ CAIR
5
0
1980
Source: EPA
1985
1990
1995
2000
2005
2010
2015
2020
Health Effects: Symmetries in atmospheric and cellular level chemistries
O2
H+
NADPH
e-
O2
-.
OC
L-Arg + O2
p47
rac
p67
.
NADP+
NADPH
+ H+
FAD
Nox2 p22
NO
FMN
FMN
CaM
Heme
FAD
CaM
Heme
F
Fe rgL-Arg e
L-A
Zn BH4
BH 4
NH
2
e-
HOO
C
FAD
FMN
O2
ONOO-
Heme
2+
Fe
Source, Harrison, 2006
L-Arg
O2-.
Atmospheric
Pathways
N
H2
NH
2
Source, Harrison, 2006
Reactive Oxidant
Cell Chemistry Processes
Hypothesized effect
Consequences of new standards
New PM NAAQS 2006
• Annual NAAQS 15 ug/m3
• 24 hour 98th percentile NAAQS 35 µg/m3
– From 65 µ g/m3
– Implications ….new definition for anomalous events
• Increased relevance of remote sensing information
• PM10 remains
• Requirements for PM10-2.5 monitoring
– focus on urban coarse PM resuspended by heavy
traffic, industrial sources, and construction
• excludes rural dust uncontaminated by urban, industrial
sources (excludes agriculture, mining, wind blown dust
Major Ozone Standard changes
• 1 hour to 8 hour standard (late 1990’s)
– Transition from urban to regional
assessments
• Recent 8 hour 80 (84) ppb to 75ppb
– Raises importance of background ozone,
transport and climate-AQ interactions
Ozone revitalization after the
PM onslaught
• Research $ exploded for PM in the late
90’s -2000’s
• What happened to fundamental oxidant
research?
We need to re-respect the
Center of the Environmental Assessment Universe…
.OH
Role in Linking Pollutants Formation : OneAtmosphere
VOC + OH -->
Orgainic PM
Fine PM Visibilit
(Nitrate,
y
Sulfate,
Organic PM)
PM2.5
.OH
C. Jang
Ozon
NOx + VOC + OH
e
+ hv ---> O3
Acid
RainSO2 + OH --->
Water
Qualit
NOx + SOx
y + OH
(Lake
Acidification,
Eutrophication)
SOx [or NOx] + NH3 + OH
---> (NH4)2SO4 [or
NH4NO3]
H2SO
NO
2 +4OH ---> HNO3
Air
Toxics
OH <---> Air
Toxics
(POPs, Hg, etc.)
Monitoring
There is a wealth of measurements, but is it aligned for current drivers?
Deposition and surface water chemistry Networks
Scarcity of routine soil and surface
water/chemistry
Consider importance of meteorological systems
e.g., Solar radiation networks
Aeronet sun photometers
UV networks
Air quality focused radar profilers
Comments on how satellite data really support
air program management – ordered attempt
• Direct incorporation into emissions inventory process
– 2002 NEI and 2005 fire components utilize
satellite data
• Inverse modeling, top-down construction of emissions
– Generally for hemispheric scale applications
• Accountability – (e.g., NOx EGU reductions)
• Constraining air quality model evaluation (and EIs) by
providing consistent vertical column information
• Direct Boundary condition Observations and conceptual
modeling of transport events
• Spatial gap filling
– Most attractive marketing item
Recommendations
(integration)
• In addition to speciated dry Hg
Sequencing Model Evaluation Steps
PBL development; Vertical/horizontal
Mixing; Temperature radiation, water
Emissions evaluation
and/or modification
Conserved species
and precursor evaluation
Intermediate
and fast reacting
species
Transformed
species
Wet and
dry deposition
Recommendation 1: Support required deployment of 75 surface stations
designed to constrain regional model evaluation, link to satellites, service
accountability and epidemiological studies (not compliance sites)
NCore network: 75 Level 2 sites of collocated trace gases and aerosol
components in “representative” mix of urban and regional areas – included in
12/06 PM NAAQS revision
NCore Measurements
Level 2: ~ 75 Multipollutant (MP)
Sites,“Core Species”
Plus Leveraging From
PAMS,
Speciation Program,
Air Toxics
L1
L2
Level 3
Minimum “Core” Level 2 Measurements
Continuous NO,NOy,SO2,CO, PM2.5,
PM10/PMc,O3,Meteorology (T,RH,WS,WD);
Integrated PM2.5 FRM, HNO3, NH3,
Level 1. 3-10 Master
Sites Comprehensive
Measurements,
Advance Methods
Serving Science and
Technology Transfer
Needs
Level 3: Minimum
Single Pollutant
Sites (e.g.> 500
sites each for O3
and PM2.5 and
related spatial
Mapping Support
Recommendation 2: Improve surface
based nitrogen characterizations
• Proposed NCore NOy – operational level
issues remain ?
• True routine low cost NO2 instruments not
available
• ambient NH3
Recommendation 3: VOCs - Ground based
complement for satellite HCHO and possibly
glyoxal
• HCHO only provided in urban high ozone locations
(dating back to 1990 CAAA)
– No routine program for regionally representative
HCHO (key surrogate for biogenic isoprene
emissions, important diagnostic species for model
evaluation)
• Glyoxal – recent importance of role in SOA formation
and leveraging opportunity with total column values
Recommendation 4: Routinely available
vertical air chemistry
• Adoption of a North American complement to
MOZAIC/CARIBE (domestic flights)
– Exploration through TAMDAR
Recommendation 5: Sustaining and enhancing “sentinel”
fixed station sites for LR transport and background
characterization support (source, HTAP interim report)
Å£Existing sites
ÅúRecommended
Å£Alert
Å£Zeppelin Mt.
Å£Pt. Barrow
Å£Sodakayla
Å£
Pallas
Åú
Åú
Åú
ţMt. Batchelor ţ Whiteface Mt.
Å£T rinidad Head
Å£ Pico-NARE
Å£ Izana
Åú
Å£Mauna Loa
Åú
Å£Mace Head
Å£Jungfraujoch
Åú
Mt. Waliguanţ ţMt. T ai
Å£Mt. Huangi
Å£
Minamitorishima
Recommendation 6: Geostationary air chemistry mission
– sustained through partnership with ground based
agencies (EPA, USDA, NPS, NOAA) – LANDSAT model
(Engel- Cox)chenistry
Recommendation 7: Harness or guide GEOSS and other
“integration” umbrellas to create effective information
technology support to enable data retrieval, archiving,
access, distribution and interpretation across disparate
informations sources (Data Fed, ESIP,…rudyworld)
EPA
CDC
NPS
NAS, CAAAC
CASAC, OMB
NOAA
PM research
NASA
Organizations
DOE
NARSTO
Enviros
Academia
Private
Sector
Lidar
systems
SIPs, nat. rules
designations
Intensive studies
PM centers
Data sources
CASTNET
Other networks:
SEARCH, IADN..
CMAQ
GEOS-CHEM
Emissions
Meteorology
AQ
forecasting
Accountability/
indicators
NAAQS
setting
Satellite data
IMPROVE, NCore
PM monit, PAMS
Health/mort.
records
Programs
Risk/exposure
assessments
Coordination
Cluster
Mess
NADP
Supersites
Eco-informatic
Test beds
PHASE
States/Tribes/RPO’s
Interstate orgs.
USDA
GEOSS
Extras
Key Gaps/Recommendations
•
Surface/soil chemistry
– Scarcity of routine, long term soil and water chemistry campaigns to associate
changes in deposition with soil/surface water responses
– Sustainability of TIME/LTM
•
Spatial and temporal scales
– Leveraging satellite observations with key surface measurements and vertical
profile systems
• e.g., HCHO, NO2, glyoxal, SO2, CO
– Poorly covered rural areas
• Link to satellite observations
• Support ecosystem assessments
• Critical for integration models and observation systems
– Support for geostationary satellite campaigns
• Enable near continuous streams of trace gas and aerosol observations, from current
(typically twice daily) “point in time” measurements
– Routine aircraft campaigns for vertical profiles
• Trace gases and aerosols
– Higher time resolved aerosol components
• Transition period between Supersites and implementation
• Acknowledge SEARCH and RPO efforts
– Strategy for near roadway exposures?
Key Gaps/Recommendations, cont.
• Multiple pollutants (atmospheric view)
– Air toxics conundrum (inhalable)
• Perceived and real significant measurement gaps
– Especially beyond mobile source BTEX compounds
• Challenging variety of source- and local scale- specific attributes
– Mercury
• Speciated “dry” (elemental gas, divalent gas, p-Hg) observation
– Needed complement to precipitation MDN program
– Initiative underway coordinated through NADP
– Nitrogen species
• Elevated importance related to 3 major MP-MM-AC themes
– (note: national scale U.S emissions strategies are N and S dominated)
• Critical need: continued lack of true NO2
– Central diagnostic specie imbedded in atmospheric reaction pathways
– Compromises leveraging satellite obs.
• Noted scarcity of rural measurements
• Slow deployment of NOy
• Extremely scarce reduced N observations (NH3 and p-NH4)
• Critical role of CASTNET
Key Gaps/Recommendations, cont.
• Multiple pollutants (atmospheric view), cont
– Sulfur and CO
• Inadequate SO2 observations
– Key to confirming treatment of modeled sulfate formation
– Input in NH3 bi-directional parameterization schemes
• Very limited trace CO observations
– demanded for model evaluation
– Indicator for exhaust gas HAPs
– VOCs
• Rethinking since PAMS of early 1990’s?
• Lacking important rural indictors (e.g., HCHO)
– Collocated “representative” MP sites
• enables increased probing of confounding associations and
constraining model evaluation
• 75 site initiative through NCORE
– Central city and key rural areas
» modest backbone, ideally catalyzing increased coverage
– Adds trace gases (CO, NOy, SO2, NH3*) to established aerosol speciation sites
– Reasonable “starting” surface link for satellite systems
Key Gaps/Recommendations, cont.
•
Other process/diagnostic species
[based on evolving knowledge and priorities]
– Glyoxal
• Precursor for cloud based heterogeneous SOA formation
• Reasonable indicator of urban based VOC oxidation products
• Surface link to satellites
–
Nitrous acid, HONO
•
•
–
Nitrate ion
•
•
Important generator of OH (morning/evening)
Diagnostic for atmospheric N balance
Important role in biogenic SOA formation
Other Accountability indicators (atmospheric view)
–
N species, Hg
•
–
N and Hg emissions reduction projections
Energy policies, e.g. shift in fuels
•
Low sulfur diesel
–
•
FOSSIL fuels to GRAIN based sources
–
•
Particle physical properties
Increased acetaldehyde and PAN
Field campaigns
– Challenge to communicating effectiveness and distributing information beyond
small circles
– Occasional comprehensive model evaluation campaigns
Aug. 14 cloud experiment
Vertical Profile (courtesy, A. Carlton, EPA)
ICARTT
PILS WSOC meas.
Base CMAQ
CMAQ w/ AORGC
Vertical profile comparison of CMAQ-predicted OC and PILS WSOC measurements