Transcript UPdate onf Draft 2007 AQMP Emissions

2007 South Coast AQMP/SIP
Ozone & PM2.5 Control Strategy
Laki Tisopulos, Ph.D., P.E.
Assistant Deputy Executive Officer
South Coast Air Quality Management District
NACAA Spring Membership Meeting
May 6, 2008
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1
Boundaries of the South Coast Air Quality
Management District and Federal Planning Areas
San Joaquin Kern County
Valley
Air Basin
South
Central
Coast Air Basin
Santa
Barbara
County
Ventura
County
San Bernardino County
Mojave Desert
Air Basin
Los Angeles
County
South Coast
Air Basin
Riverside County
Orange
County
South Coast
Air Quality Management District
SCAQMD Jurisdiction
San Diego
Air Basin
San Diego County
Salton Sea
Air Basin
Imperial County
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22
Demographic Projections and
Ozone Air Quality Trend
180%
300
O3 8-Hour
Design Value (ppb)
140%
250
120%
200
100%
150
80%
60%
100
Design Value (ppb)
Percent Increase in Population and
Activities
160%
80
40%
50
20%
0%
0
1980
1985
1990
1995
2000
2005
2010
2015
2020
YEAR
O3 8-Hour
Design Value
Population
VMT
Housing Units
3
3
2005 South Coast Air Basin Quality
Compared to Other U.S. Cities
200%
Percent of Standard
150%
100%
50%
0%
South Coast Houston Philadelphia New York Washington
D.C.
Atlanta
Chicago
Ozone (8-hour)
Ozone (1-hour)
PM2.5 (Annual)
PM10 (Annual)
CO (8-hour)
NO2 (Annual)
Phoenix
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4
2005 Annual Average PM2.5 Concentration
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5
PM2.5 Disproportionate Exposure
South Coast Air Basin
Population-Weighted Exposure Above NAAQS Based on
2000-2002 AIRS Data
Rest of Nation
48%
Rest of California
18%
South Coast
82%
South Coast
52%
Source: California Air Resources Board
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Recent CARB Assessment
of PM Health Effects
SCAB Cases/Year due to PM2.5 *
Premature Deaths
Hospitalizations
Asthma & Lower Respiratory
Symptoms
Lost Work Days
Minor Restricted Activity Days
5,400
2,400
140,000
980,000
5,000,000
*1999-2000 Air Quality Data
Source: California Air Resources Board
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Emissions by Major Category
SCAQMD
PM2.5, 2014
Area Sources
10%
8-Hr Ozone, 2023
On-Road
39%
Point Sources
7%
Off-Road
41%
On-Road
25%
Fugitive Dust
3%
Point
Sources
8%
Off-Road
41%
(NOx, SOx, PM2.5)
Area Sources
26%
(VOC, NOx)
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Primary Emissions Responsibility
by Agency
PM2.5, 2014
8-Hr Ozone, 2023
CARB
57%
CARB
56%
District
20%
District
23%
EPA
24%
(NOx, SOx, PM2.5)
EPA
20%
(VOC, NOx)
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9
VOC Annual Average Emissions
2014
120
107
100
78
tons per day
80
54
60
45
44
40
28
24
23
22
22
Heavy-Duty
Gasoline
Truck
Coatings &
Related
Processes
20
0
Consumer
Products
Light-Duty
Passenger
Cars
Light-Duty
Trucks
Off-Road
Equpment
Recreational
Boats
Petroleum
Marketing
Architectural
Off-Road
Coatings
Recreational
10
10
NOx Annual Average Emissions
2014
160
147
140
tons per day
120
120
100
90
80
60
48
47
40
31
27
23
23
22
Trains
Aircraft
Residential
Fuel
Combustion
20
0
Heavy-Duty Off-Road
Diesel Trucks Equipment
Ships &
Commercial
Boats
Light-Duty
Passenger
Cars
Light-Duty
Trucks
Heavy-Duty
Gasoline
Trucks
RECLAIM
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11
SOx Annual Average Emissions
2014
60
tons per day
50
48
40
30
20
12
10
2
2
1
1
1
1
0.5
0.5
Manufacturing
& Industry
Combustion
Light-Duty
Passenger
Cars
Service &
Commercial
Combustion
Light-Duty
Trucks
Residential
Fuel
Combustion
Landfills
0
Ships &
Commercial
Boats
RECLAIM
Aircraft
Petroleum
Refineries
12
12
Directly Emitted PM2.5
Annual Average Emissions-2014
25
tons per day
20
20
15
15
9
10
7
6
5
5
4
4
3
3
0
Paved Road
Dust
Commercial
Cooking
Residential
Fuel
Combustion
Ships &
Construction & Heavy-Duty
Commercial
Demolition Diesel Trucks
Boats
Dust
Light-Duty
Passenger
Cars
Light-Duty
Trucks
Wood & Paper Recreational
Boats
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Goods Movement
Growth
2001-2020
• 300 % increase in cargo
through the ports
• 170% increase in truck travel
• 150% increase in rail cargo
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Design Principles
• Expeditious Progress
• Meet Attainment Deadlines
• Minimize Cost Impacts to Degree
Practicable
• All Feasible Measure and Promote Fair
Share Responsibility
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Control Strategy Design
• Step I
– Maximum controls of SOx and directly emitted PM2.5
– Necessary NOx controls
– Modest VOC controls to ensure progress toward
ozone attainment
• Step II
– Continue NOx control programs
– Necessary VOC reductions
• Attainment Demonstration
– All grid cells
– At or below the standards
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2007 AQMP Control Strategy
• District’s Stationary and Mobile Source
Control Measures
• State and Federal Control Measures
– CARB’s Proposed Concepts
– District Staff’s Recommended State and
Federal Stationary and Mobile Source Control
Measures
• SCAG’s 2004 RTP/2006 RTIP
• Long-Term Strategy
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Plan Summary
• Inclusive Control
Strategy
– 2015 PM2.5
Attainment
– 2024 Ozone
Attainment
• 31 - Stationary
Source Measures
• 30 - Mobile Source
Measures
Emissions Reductions Needed
2014
NOx
203
(29%)
VOC
59
(11%)
SOx
24
(56%)
PM2.5
14
(14%)
2023
383
(76%)
116
(22%)
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Highlights of Control Measures
• New Development and Re-Development
Projects
• Consumer Products Certification and Use
Restrictions
• Facility Modernization
• Backstop Rule for Ports and Port-Related
Facilities
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Highlights of Control Measures
(cont)
• Cleaner Fuel in Ocean Going Vessels
Auxiliary and Main Engines
• Ocean-Going Vessels While At Berth At A
California Port
• Off-Road Engine In-use Standards
– Local Opt-in Surplus Reductions
• In-Use On-Road Heavy-Duty Diesel
Vehicles
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Market Incentive Programs
• Public/Private Investment to Accelerate
Fleet Turnover
– Carol Moyer Program
– AB923
– Prop 1B
– Others
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Challenges on the Horizon
• Revised 24-Hour PM2.5 Standard
– 65 μg/m3 to 35 μg/m3
– EPA designations finalized (12/2008?)
– AQMP due three years following final
designation
• Revisions to the 8-Hour Ozone Standard
– New standard: 0.075 ppm
– Final designations finalized (12/2010)
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22
Predicted Maximum 24-hour
PM 2.5 Concentration (2021)
55
50
Other
12%
45
PM2.5 ug/m3
40
Standard
35ug/m3
35
30
25
SO4
28%
EC
9%
OC
15%
20
15
10
NH4
10%
5
NO3
26%
Speciated PM2.5
0
2021
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Summary
• Concerted effort underway to implement
2007 AQMP control strategy
• Federal partnership needed
• New air quality standards pose significant
challenge to attainment by 2020 and
beyond
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