Transcript Slide 1

Health Impacts of Fossil Fuels
Ethanol-Blended Fuels are Mandatory
Assoc. Prof. Ray Kearney
Dept. of Infectious Diseases and Immunology
The University of Sydney
Email: [email protected]
Phone: (02) 9351-3590 (w)
Basic Criteria for Health
• Survival
• Longevity
• Efficiency
• Well-being
Each is impacted adversely by exposure to
fossil fuel pollutants
Average Unit Pollution Health-Costs for
Inner and Outer Sydney
Note: Data are for all sources:
Vehicle, Industry, Domestic/Commercial
Band 1 (Inner Sydney) Band 2 (Outer Sydney) -
$ 8,895,927,250
$ 2,654,876,235
Av cost (Bands 1 and 2) -
$ 5.78 billion (approx)
Annual health-cost due
to vehicle pollution only
in Sydney -
$ 2-3 billion (approx)
Note: Twice as many people die in Sydney from air pollution than in road accidents
Amoako, L., Ockwell, A., Lodh, M., ‘The Economic Consequences of the Health
Effects of Transport Emissions in Australian Capital Cities’
Bureau of Transport and Regional Economics, 2003
Benefits Analysis of Particulate Matter Control
Programs – A Case Study in Tokyo
• Economic benefits of pre-control PM10 measures in
1975 (PM10 > 100µg/M3) and post-control levels in
1998 (PM10 < 45µg/M3)
Health-impact benefit
•
•
•
•
•
•
•
Cost ($A) per case
3,900 long-term deaths
8,160,000
4,700 cases of chronic bronchitis (age >30years)
441,333
7,800 cases cardiovascular disease (age > 65 years) 24,516
3,100 cases pneumonia (age > 65 years)
19,591
2,500 cases chronic obstructive pulmonary disease
16,504
390,000 asthma attacks
54.39
4,500 cases of acute bronchitis in children
76.45
Point estimate (1999) of total benefit: $A 47.5 billion
(incl. cost of lost wages)
A.S. Voorhees - J. Risk Research Vol. 8, 311-329 (June, 2005)
Ethanol & Fine Particulates: PM2.5
• Primary PM2.5 emissions are reduced by a
qualified 50 percent using 10 percent ethanol
blends.
• Primary PM2.5 linked to aromatics which
ethanol can replace.
• Primary PM2.5 linked to deposits, which are
also linked to aromatics.
• Secondary PM2.5 organic formation is linked to
aromatics which ethanol can replace.
G. Whitten et al., 2004
http://www.ethanolrfa.org/pubs.shtml
While CSIRO Looks for More Experiments with
Aussie Cars etc,
Saab (Sweden) Finds Solid Market for
E85-Powered 9-5 Sedan
At London’s Clean Energy Show (May, 2005) Saab showcased
bioethanol-fuelled car - the 9-5 BioPower:
• does not raise atmospheric levels of CO2
• delivers more power than petrol equivalent
(150bhp to 180bhp)
• cheaper fuel (25% less)
• the Saab low-pollution car qualifies for free parking in
Swedish cities
• fastest growing premium brand car in UK
Note: Other manufacturers including Chrysler, Ford and Mazda
already have flexi-cars (up to E85) in progressive countries that
have mandated ethanol.
PM 2.5 plumes
(yellow)
Coal Power
Stations,
Oil refineries,
or Smelters.
Metropolis
e.g.,
Adelaide &
Melbourne
Professor Daniel Rosenfeld, The Hebrew University of Jerusalem
"Suppression of Rain and Snow by
Urban and Industrial Air Pollution"
• Evidence by Professor Daniel Rosenfeld:
http://earth.huji.ac.il/data/pics/Science_Smoke.pdf.
• Claims by CSIRO:
http://www.casanz.org.au/pdf/%20G.%20Ayers%20May%2
02005.pdf
• Highly rigorous critique of CSIRO claims:
http://www.earth.huji.ac.il/data/pics/06_226_CAS_May_06_
rosenfeld2.pdf
Fossil Fuel - the New Asbestos!
-The Art of Perpetuating a Public Health Hazard
– “Denial” of a hazard by an expert may not imply – “the truth, the
whole truth and nothing but the truth”
M. Greenberg (J. Occup. & Environ. Med. 2005; Vol 47: 137-144)
The same techniques to support the use of white
asbestos (chrysotile) as a safe material are being used
to subvert the community into thinking exposure to
vehicle pollutants is without risk to health and well-being.
http://www.catf.us/publications/reports/Diesel_Health_in_America.pdf
Exceedances of Toxic PM2.5
National Environment Protection Council (NEPC) reported:
• "Ozone, PM10 and PM2.5 are the pollutants of concern, having
peak concentrations at or above the NEPM standards and no
consistent downward trend"
http://www.deh.gov.au/atmosphere/airquality/status/index.html
• A main problem identified is with ozone and fine particles PM2.5
” The 2001 peak PM2.5 levels are above the advisory reporting
standards at the four jurisdictions (NSW, Victoria, Queensland
and WA) that provided data”.
‘Clean’ Lung
‘City’ Lung
Adverse impacts on health and well-being
Exhaust pollution including coarse, fine and ultra-fine particles,
gaseous irritants, and polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons (PAH’s)
either alone or in combination, are known to be associated with,
for example:
» inflammatory lung diseases e.g., asthma, bronchitis
and alveolitis
»
increased cardio-vascular disease
»
risk for exercise-induced heart damage
»
limited blood flow and increased blood clotting
»
increased mucous production and airway
hyper- responsiveness
»
1/5 lung cancer deaths (USA) and accelerated tumour
growth
»
premature death
»
significant risk of ovarian cancer
Adverse impacts on health and well-being (Cont.)
» symptoms of anaemia e.g., tiredness, headaches, fatigue
and shortness of breath.
» low birth weight and small head circumference of neonate.
» intra-uterine growth retardation (for each 10 nanograms
PAH’s /M3 increase)
» certain leukaemias e.g., from exposure to benzene.
» loss in productivity, absenteeism from work and school.
» increased sensitivity to bacterial products in airways
» more severe common viral asthma
» reduced male fertility
» adverse effects on lung development for age 10 – 18 years
Health Impacts of Fine (PM2.5) Particulate
Air Pollution
• Short term exposure to PM2.5 increases the risk for
hospital admission for cardiovascular and respiratory
diseases.
• 18 cases of COPD per 10,000 individuals for every
10-µg/m3 increase in PM2.5.
• Every 10-µg/m3 reduction in PM2.5 reduces
hospitalization due to heart failure by 3156 in 246,598
annual cases (204 Counties in USA}.
F. Dominici, et al.
J. American Medical Assoc. 8 March, 2006 Vol 295 p1127-34
The Normal Alveolus
(Left-Hand Side) and
the Injured Alveolus
in the Acute Phase of
Acute Lung Injury
and the Acute
Respiratory Distress
Syndrome
(Right-Hand Side).
NEJM (2000)
342, p 1334-49
Cascade of Triggers Culminating in Acute Myocardial Infarction
Coronary thrombosis
and acute myocardial
infarction
Air-pollution triggers
predisposing to
thrombosis:
• Inc. coagulability
• Inc. inflammation
• Inc. viscosity
• Inc. vasoconstriction
NEJM (2004) 351, p1716
Pollutants Enhance the Airway Response
to Inhaled Allergens i.e., Hyper-responsiveness
Hyper-responsiveness
A
20
15
Trigger-threshold
for asthma attack
B
10
5
0
house-mite pollen
dust
pollution combined
e.g., PM2.5
A - Severe asthma
B - Episode to lower
doses of allergens
Diesel
Exhaust
Particles
(DEP)
increase
receptors
for
endotoxin
(LPS)
Enhanced
Inflammation
(LPS)
H. Takano
et. al. 2002
New England Journal of Medicine,
2002, Vol. 347, p. 417 - 428
FEV1 is the volume of air expelled in the first second of maximal forced
expiration from a position of full inspiration.
Tumour-Cell Growth and Death
Normal cell
Carcinogen
Initiation and
transformation
(e.g., PAHs)
Tumour
Tumour cell
(early growth)
Dormancy
death rate = division rate
Apoptosis
(cell suicide)
Inflammation
(e.g., PM 2.5)
Acceleration of
Tumour growth
1 mm tumour with blood supply
R. Kearney
New Scientist - 9 March, 2002
Big city killer
If the cigarettes don't get you the traffic pollution will
UP TO a fifth of all lung cancer deaths in cities are caused by tiny particles
of pollution, most of them from vehicle exhausts.
That's the conclusion of the biggest study into city pollution to date, which
tracked half a million Americans for 16 years. It suggests the impact is far
greater than feared.
The research focused on particles less than 2.5 micrometres in diameter,
known as PM2.5s. These fine particles are thought to kill by lodging deep
in the lungs.
The researchers found that the long-term death rate from lung cancer rose
by 8 per cent for every 10-microgram increase in the average
concentration of PM2.5s per cubic metre. The increased risk is comparable
with the risks to long-term passive smokers.
C.A. Pope et al: The Journal of the American Medical Association
(2002) 287, p 1132
The Global Supply/Demand Reality
• Global oil reserves equate to approx. 35 years supply
based on 29 billion barrels annually and a total global
reserve of one trillion barrels.
• Australian consumption of crude oil and condensate in
2004 could be sustained by its remaining economic
reserves for only 9.3 years (Geosciences Australia).
ACTION: Political stewardship, vision and preparedness
are needed NOW to adopt viable alternative fuels.
Implications for Australia
• Australia is highly dependent on road transport for the
movement of both goods and people.
• Currently committed almost entirely to products of crude
oil to fuel that transport
Implications:
• Great vulnerability to constraints in the global price and
supply of petroleum
• Escalating sickness-care costs
ACTION: Australia needs an urgent shift, not tokenism, in
policy from conventional fuels to more sustainable
cleaner alternatives (e.g., 20% by 2020), including
ethanol.
Human lung
in
clean-air
Human lung
In
dirty-air
Unlimited and free access
to
clean air
of acceptable quality
is
a fundamental
human necessity and right.
Greater use of clean, alternative fuels, including ethanol, is
essential to reduce costly health impacts
“You are a child of the universe, no less than the trees and the stars;
you have a right to live.…”
‘Desiderata’-1927