Transcript Slide 1

The AIRPACT-3
Photochemical Air
Quality Forecast
System: Evaluation
and Enhancements
Jack Chen, Farren Thorpe,
Jeremy Avis, Matt Porter,
Joseph Vaughan, and Brian Lamb
Laboratory for Atmospheric Research
Washington State University
Tomorrow’s Air Quality: AIRPACT-3
Daily Forecast System
MM5(3.7.3) numerical mesoscale
meteorological model
SMOKE(2.1): Sparse Matrix
Operating Kernal for Emissions
processing.
CMAQ (4.6): Community Multiscale Air Quality model:

SAPRC-99 O3 & toxics chemistry

Aerosol (ver.4) in Aitken,
accumulation, & coarse modes

Deposition of N, S, O3, & Hg species

12 km x 12 km grid cells, 21 layers

Forecast to 64 hours daily
PM species
Nitrates
Sulfates
Organic aerosols
Wind-Blown Dust (soon)
PM2.5 total mass
AIRPACT-3 Dynamic Emissions &
IC/BC
2005 anthropogenic
emissions (SMOKE)
MM5/MCIP
Meteorology
from UW
Weather
Forecast System
Dynamic Boundary
Conditions: spatial
& temporal
variations from
MOZART monthly
diurnal average
profiles
Updated Biogenic
Emission Model (BEIS3)
Gridded
Emissions
WSU Dairy NH3
Emissions Module
Wild and Prescribed
Fire Emissions (from
BlueSky system)
CMAQ
Daisy-chain Initial
Conditions
AIRPACT3, July, 2006 Ozone and
Biogenic SOA Formation
http://www.airpact-3.wsu.edu
Retrospective long term evaluation
Aug – Nov, 2004
(coincident with Columbia Gorge Visibility Monitoring program)
• 8 hr daily
maximum O3
•24 hr daily
maximum
PM2.5
•Speciated
PM2.5
MM5 forecast performance results
August 2004
Surface
Temp. (oC)
Wind
Direction
(deg)
Wind
Speed
(m/s)
Precip
(mm)
RH (%)
Mean error
-0.3
5
1.6
0.0
4
Mean abs. error
2.4
64
2.3
1.7
13
N
32569
24892
25476
12378
23466
Nov. 2004
Surface
Temp. (oC)
Wind
Direction
(deg)
Wind
Speed
(m/s)
Precip
(mm)
RH (%)
Mean error
0.3
8
1.8
-0.4
3
Mean abs. error
2.2
70
2.4
2.1
14
N
32956
24416
24978
10887
22931
GFS initialization, CCM2 radiation scheme, Reisner-2 moisture microphysics parameterization, KainFritsch cumulus parameterization and the MRF/Hong-Pan planetary boundary layer (PBL) scheme
P/O vs Observed
10
6
4
2
1
6
4
2
30
0.1
0
20
40
60
Measured (ppbv)
Timing
errors
(running 8 hr
means)
Percentage Count (%)
Modeled / Measured Ratio
Daily maximum 8 hr ozone results
25
80
20
15
10
5
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
Hour Difference Between Observed and Measured O 3 Peak Time
Ranked daily maximum 8 hr ozone
for selected sites (Aug/Sept, 2004)
90
NorthBend, WA
Enumclaw, WA
Talent, OR
Carus, OR
WhitneyEle, ID
Modeled O3 (ppbv)
80
70
60
50
40
30
30
40
50
60
70
Observed O3 (ppbv)
80
90
Ranked speciated PM2.5 observations and predictions
PEC
POC
50
8
3
Modeled (µg/m )
3
Modeled (µg/m )
40
30
20
10
20
30
40
EPA_AQS
IMPROVE
SWCAA
0
0
0
4
2
EPA_AQS
IMPROVE
SWCAA
10
6
0
50
2
4
3
PSO4 5
Measured (µg/m )
10
5
0
PNH4
EPA_AQS
SWCAA
3
4
3
2
1
0
0
5
10
15
3
Measured (µg/m )
20
PNO3
EPA_AQS
SWCAA
10
Modeled (µg/m )
3
15
Modeled (µg/m )
3
Modeled (µg/m )
EPA_AQS
SWCAA
8
3
Measured (µg/m )
20
6
8
6
4
2
0
0
1
2
3
4
3
Measured (µg/m )
5
0
2
4
6
8
3
Measured (µg/m )
10
Enhancements to Airpact-3
Wildfire emissions exported to Airpact-3 from the
Forest Service BlueSky System
MODIS Image
for Sept 5 2006
Predicted 24-hr PM2.5 for Aug. 200
Observed Fire
Events
WSU
BlueSky System
Pullman
at Forest Service
AIRPACT
retrieves: fire
location, fire size,
heat flux,
emissions
BlueSky fire
locations & size
SMOKE emissions
processing for CMAQ
Predicted
PM2.5 from
fires
Wildfire Contributions to Regional Ozone
O3 with NOx from
fires
O3 without NOx
from fires
Daily max O3 Sept 2 – 6, 2006
O3 difference
Further developments
Nested domains (4 km grid cells)
Enhanced automatic evaluation
NASA products
Collaborators & Acknowledgements
Collaborating research groups
USDA – Forest Service Don McKenzie & Sim
Larkin
USDA – NRCS Susan O’Neill
Funding sources
NW-Airquest Consortium
NASA ROSES Decision Support System grant
Initial evaluation results
Ozone 8 hr daily maxima
NMB = 6% and NME = 17%
Peak values correctly estimated
PM2.5 24 hr daily maxima
Daily FB range: -75% to +75%, mean FB = 3%
Daily FE range: 3% to 79%, mean FE = 50%
Speciated PM2.5
Good match with NO3 observations
Split decision for NH4: Gorge sites underestimated
SO4 underestimated
OC and EC overestimated at peak levels (associated with
wildfires)
Enhancement of Airpact using satellite data
OMI-Aura Satellite Retrievals and AIRPACT-3 for NO2
U.S. retrieval
AIRPACT-3
Urban NO2 along the I-5 corridor: OMI-AURA and
Airpact
OMI (American)
OMI (Dutch)
AIRPACT
Bias and error
maps for Aug-Sept
daily maximum 8
hr ozone
Normalized mean
bias
Normalized mean
error
24 hr PM2.5 Performance Time Series
1.0
R
0.5
0.0
-0.5
-1.0
FE / FB (%)
Modeled
Measured
FB
FE
R
100
50
0
-50
3
PM2.5 (µg/m )
30
20
10
0
8/7 8/15 8/23 8/31 9/8 9/16 9/24 10/2 10/1010/1810/26 11/3 11/1111/1911/27