Transcript NW-AIRQUEST

Northwest-AIRQUEST & AIRPACT-3
Regional Modeling Studies
Joseph Vaughan, Farren Thorpe, Ying Xie,
Serena Chung, Brian Lamb and George Mount
Laboratory for Atmospheric Research
Washington State University, Pullman, WA
Jack Chen, NRC, Environment Canada
WRAP Workshop on Regional Emissions & Air Quality Modeling Studies
Denver, CO
July 30, 2008
Topics
NW-AIRQUEST Consortium
AIRPACT-3 Air Quality Forecast System
Cartoon
Domain
Evaluation and Performance (w/ new online tool) (4)
Integration of BlueSky wildfire emissions (2)
NASA ROSES project for integration of satellite retrievals (6)
NOx-VOC sensitivity (2)
Deposition from AIRPACT-3 and EPA STAR Climate and AQ
Atmospheric Policy Trajectory program
NW-AIRQUEST
Northwest and International Air Quality, Environmental Science and
Technology Consortium
Grew out of Northwest Regional Modeling Consortium’s Air Quality
interest group using UW MM5 results for regional modeling needs
Committed to providing air-quality science and technology to address
regions policy needs!
Members:
• State agencies: ID DEQ, OR DEQ and WA Ecology
• US EPA and USDA Forest Service
• Universities
• Tribes
• Local Air Quality Agencies
AIRPACT Forecasting Framework
Standard INPUT
EXTERNAL
MODEL
AIRNow
AIRPACT
Forecast
Planned Data Flow
(Models-3/Community
Multiscale Air Quality)
Mo
So b i l e
urc
es
Point
Sources
Chemical Transport
Model
SMOKE
(Sparse Matrix
Operator Kernel
Emissions)
Biogenic
Sources
M
MISR Leaf
Area Index
and Fractional
PAR &/or
MODIS Land
Cover
Area
Sources
BlueSky
(Fire Model)
tial ns
Ini
CMAQ
it io )
nd day
Co evious
(pr
OMI
Tropospheric
Nitrogen
Dioxide (&
Ozone when
available)
Obs
Boundary
Conditions
MOZART
Global CTM
OMI, MISR,
&/or MODIS
Aerosol
Optical Depth
&/or Aerosol
Tropospheric
Column Mass
AIRS
Carbon Monoxide
(Plus Correlatives)
ash
.)
AIRPACT
COMPONENT
W /WR
e
F ather F
(U ore
niv
. o cast
fW
OUTPUT
Online
charting
Standard Data Flow
Me
teo
rol
ogy
MM
5
Satellite Product
Ch (Mete CIP
em
o
is rol
Pro try In ogyces terf
sor ace
)
LEGEND:
AIRPACT-3 DOMAIN
PM2.5 sites:
Colville, WA
Beacon Hill, Seattle, WA
Cheeka Peak, WA
Overall Daily Max 8-hr O3 Performance
MB
2.7 ppbv
Obs.Avg.
42.9 ppbv
ME
7.2 ppbv
Mod. Avg.
43.0 ppbv
R
0.55
Modeled / Measured Ratio
Daily Max 8-hr O3 Performance
10
P/O vs Observed
6
4
2
1
6
4
2
0.1
0
20
40
60
Measured (ppbv)
80
Timing errors
(running 8-hr
means)
Overall 24-hr PM2.5 Performance
EPA-AQS Stations
Obs. Avg.
11 (g/m3)
Mod. Avg.
13 (g/m3)
MB
2.0 (g/m3)
ME
8.0 (g/m3)
R
0.46
IMPROVE Stations
Obs. Avg.
6.0 (g/m3)
Mod. Avg.
8.0 (g/m3)
MB
2.2 (g/m3)
ME
5.5 (g/m3)
R
0.53
Using the on-line charting tool to compare
AIRPACT-3 forecast PM2.5 vs observed PM2.5
Wildfire
Receiving from Forest Service BlueSky system:
heat flux -- used for SMOKE plume rise;
and wildfire emissions:
PM2.5 , PM Coarse, CO, TOG, NOx, NH3, SO2
Fok-Yan Leung comparing MINX plume heights with
Bluesky-AIRPACT-3 SMOKE plume rise.
Bluesky wildfire emissions imported nightly;
and working toward use of SMARTFIRE.
NASA ROSES-funded integration of satellite data
Applied Sciences Program Approach to Integrated System Solutions for
A Comprehensive Regional Air-Quality Decision Support System for the Pacific Northwest
AIRPACT-3 Tropospheric Column NO2
vs.
OMI Tropospheric Column NO2
for March 2008
Seattle: AIRPACT-3 vs OMI NO2, March 2008
PORTLAND: AIRPACT-3 vs OMI NO2, March 2008
Vancouver, BC: AIRPACT-3 vs OMI NO2, March 2008
To recap, we’re working on
• making accurate comparisons of OMI-retrieved
NO2 to AIRPACT-3 forecast NO2 to guide improved
emissions characterization.
• just beginning to work with O3 OMI results.
• use of CO retrievals from AIRS (and MOPPIT)
with intent of setting boundary conditions for CO and
other correlated species.
• use of AOD (aerosol) observations to reset
AIRPACT-3 aerosol state for rerun to new IC.
O3 sensitivity analysis study of NOx-VOC indicators in
the Pacific Northwest -- Ying Xie
•
•
•
Objective
– Investigate the behavior of photochemical indicators (O3/NOy)
– Evaluate model predicted sensitivity by comparing to observed indicator values
– Evaluate EI using observed compound ratios in the morning urban profile
Methods
– Measurements from PNW2001 field campaign
– Rob Elleman’s CMAQ simulation as the standard scenario
– Sensitivity runs based upon the evaluation of EI
Results
– Substantial overestimation of CO emissions by 80% and overestimation of total
VOC reactivity by 30% in the EI.
– Model predicted O3/NOy ratios are closely related to VOC-NOx sensitive
conditions.
– The standard scenario over-predicted peak O3 and O3/NOy slope, suggesting an
overestimation of sensitivity to NOx, probably due to too much VOCs in the EI.
– The reduced VOC scenario resulted in better agreement with measurements in
terms of peak O3 as well as O3/NOy correlations.
O3 versus NOy from CMAQ compared with
measured values (Aug 26, 2001)
Standard scenario
Reduced VOC scenario
•
Regional Deposition Issues
A First Look at Regional
Deposition Patterns
 Low pH, elevated N deposition
measured in the Columbia River
Gorge National Scenic Area
 Concern for N, S critical loads in
high alpine lakes in the Cascade
Mountains
 Elevated Hg levels in southern
Idaho reservoirs possibly related
to high Hg emissions from
Nevada gold mines
•
Regional Modeling Approaches
 CMAQ Climate Change Modeling
Runs
 CMAQ Daily Forecast Runs
•
Negotiating CESU scope of work
with NPS for AIRPACT deposition
products
Nitrogen Dry + Wet Deposition Annual Total
Annual
• Maxima along I-5, urban
centers (~8-12 kg/ha)
• Range: 0.65-14 kg/ha
Nitrogen Dry + Wet Deposition Monthly Totals
Monthly
• Maxima along I-5, urban
centers (~1.5 kg/ha)
• {N_WETDEP max during
winter} ~ {N_DRYDEP
max during summer}
Atmospheric Policy Trajectory (APT):
Enhanced training option for Ph.D. in
Engineering Science at LAR
– to give each participating student a strong foundation in
atmospheric science along with complementary training in
environmental public policy.
• Modeling and policy course
• Policy seminars and case studies
• Internships with air & policy orientation
– to graduate students with the necessary science skills and
policy insights to become leaders in industry and
government and to undertake the public policy challenges
associated with future air quality and climate change.
– Associated N-Cycle IGERT proposal going to NSF.
Thank You
lar.wsu.edu/AIRPACT-3
[email protected]