Transcript Document

Regional Workshop on Science, Technology and Innovation
Indicators for Gulf countries
Four Seasons Hotel, Doha, Qatar
15 to 17 October 2012
STI indicators for evidence-based policy making
Michael Kahn
Research and Innovation Associates, South Africa
STI indicators for evidence-based policy making
• Evidence-based policy making
• Science, technology, innovation and change
• Basic tenets of STI policy
• Measurement of STI
Evidence-based policy making
• Tests theory - why will the policy be effective and
likely impacts if successful
• Include a counterfactual: what would have occurred
if the policy had not been implemented
• Incorporate some measurement of the impact
• Examines both direct and indirect effects that occur
because of the policy (unintended consequences)
• Separates the uncertainties and controls for other
influences outside of the policy that may have an
effect on the outcome
• Empirical validation
Why innovation?
A widely accepted view has emerged that innovation
is the key to economic growth and societal well-being.
Hence the OECD Innovation Strategy (OECD, 2010),
China’s view of innovation as contributing to the
‘green and harmonious’ development’ of a socialist
society.
President Obama’s declaration that “innovation is
more important than ever. It is the key to goodpaying, private-sector jobs for the American people.’
World Economic Forum categorizes economies
Science, technology, innovation and change
Innovation and Economic Growth
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R&D led growth: – ‘give us (taxpayers) money; we’ll
give you results’
Statist (USSR, India, China < 1978) : Academies of
Science + state laboratories
Corporatist: (Japan, S Korea, Taiwan, Hong Kong,
SA<1980, China > 1978) – government and industry
combines – zaibatsu, chaebols, mining houses define
agenda, use state protection to develop niche
technological competences.
Stagflation in the West
ICT revolution; globalization; rise of BRIC;
Innovation the new mantra
Tenets of STI policy: what is innovation?
• Government as innovator
• Social innovation
• User-driven innovation
• Informal sector innovation
Innovation policy (OECD)
“Innovation policy has developed as an amalgam of
science and technology policy and industrial policy. It
takes as a given that knowledge in all its forms plays a
crucial role in economic progress, and that innovation is a
complex and systemic phenomenon. Systems approaches
to innovation shift the focus of policy towards an
emphasis on the interplay of institutions and the
interactive processes at work in the creation of
knowledge and in its diffusion and application. The term
“ national innovation system ” has been coined to
represent this set of institutions and these knowledge
flows.”
Innovation Systems (Freeman)
•Intervention of the State through public policy;
•Impact of education on human capital development;
•Role of industrial structure
•Understand how enterprises design their strategies of
research and development (R&D);
•Rate of technical change and of economic growth
depend more on efficient diffusion than on being first in
the world with radical innovations and as much on social
innovations as on technical innovations.
•Systemic aspects of innovation influence rate of
diffusion and productivity
•Interplay between R&D and other innovation activities
An innovation System
EDUCATION
PUBLIC
TRAINING
SECTOR
SKILLS DEV
CulturalPolitical norms
UNIVERSITIES
+
BUSINESS
ACADEMIES?
STANDARDS
Associations
S.O.E.s
NGOs
INFORMAL
SECTOR
UTILITIES
GOVT. DEPTS
INSTITUTES &
MUSEUMS
Regulatory, ethical &
legal, environmental,
IPR
WORLD
SYSTEM
S&T SERVICES
Innovation activities
Acquisition of
Observing & listening
machinery, technology
& software
Invention &
prototyping
Financing
Staff training
Collaborating
Staff mobility
Reverse engineering
‘Borrowing’
Organization & process
change
Conformance
Scientific publication
R&D
IP protection
Measurement of STI
• Accountability for spending of public funds
requires:
– Informed strategy and forecasting
– Indicator-based joined-up policy
– Coordination of plans and budgets
– Monitoring
– Measurement and evaluation of
programmes and projects
– Benchmarking
– Learning
What to measure?
“The S&T system … (involves) three types of activities:
• Generation of S&T Knowledge
• Transmission of S&T Knowledge
• Use of S&T Knowledge
The dynamics of the S&T system involves the flow from the site
of the S&T knowledge generation to the site of the use, which
requires a means of transmission to get from one site to the
other, and capacities to transmit and to search and absorb.
The dynamics of S&T involves the linkages between actors
(individuals or organizations), the buying of embedded
knowledge, the hiring of employees with S&T expertise, the
acquisition of codified knowledge, and the diffusion of S&T
information. To facilitate discussion of the dynamics, there must
be a means of classifying activities, linkages and outcomes.”
Statistics Canada (1998)
Measurement
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Inputs: R&D Surveys
Inputs: Human Resource surveys
– Education statistics; Higher education statistics;
mobility; labour force survey
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Inputs: infrastructure
Intermediate outputs: scientific publications;
patents; design; copyright;
Outputs: Prototypes; Plant varieties
Outcomes: Innovation Survey
22
Source: UIS estimates, September 2009
C.I.S. Asia
Egypt
Arab States (Asia)
Argentina
Other Sub-Saharan
Arab States (Africa)
South Africa
Mexico
Israel
Africa
Other in Asia
Oceania
2002
Brazil
C.E.O. Europe
Russian Fed.
India
C.I.S. Europe
L.A.C.
United Kingdom
France
Germany
0%
N.I.E. Asia
5%
5.0%
9.2%
5.1%
6.4%
7.2%
6.1%
4.8%
3.8%
3.9%
3.3%
2.6%
2.9%
2.3%
2.4%
1.6%
2.2%
2.0%
2.1%
1.8%
1.9%
1.5%
1.6%
1.4%
1.6%
0.6%
0.9%
0.9%
0.9%
0.8%
0.8%
0.5%
0.6%
0.3%
0.4%
0.3%
0.3%
0.2%
0.2%
0.1%
0.2%
0.1%
0.1%
0.1%
0.1%
0.1%
0.1%
10%
China
15%
13.7%
13.0%
20%
Japan
European Union
Europe
25%
27.1%
32.7%
35.1%
32.4%
30.3%
27.3%
26.1%
22.9%
30%
United States
35%
Asia
40%
40.4%
37.6%
37.8%
34.7%
45%
North America
Americas
Shares of world R&D expenditure (GERD) by principal
regions/countries, 2002 and 2007 (%)
2007