10 year investment plan ERGEG approach and contribution

Benoît Esnault ERGEG - Gas Network and Market Task Force GTE+ workshop Brussels, 21/01/2009 Brussels, 21 January 2009

Context

• •

3rd package Security of supply as a key issue

  2008 EC Strategic Energy Review Dispute between Russia and Ukraine •  Need for improving market integration and solidarity mechanisms

GTE+ work on 10 year development statement investment development plan

  Basement of ERGEG work ERGEG approach: defining a formal drafting process and more emphasis on EU gas dynamics and long term energy strategy 2

ERGEG involvement, background

• 

3rd Legislative Package: promotion of investment is a key requirement

Coordinated long-term planning of system development • •   Publication of network development plans by TSOs

EU 10 year investment plans prepared by ENTSOG Role of the ACER

The ACER will be clearly involved in the process.  The ACER will be required to provide an opinion or to approve the plan (discussions between the European Parliament and the Council) • 

ERGEG work on 10 year investment plans Framework guidelines

based on GTE+ work and 3rd package requirements (not finalized yet )  Focus on the content and drafting methodology 3

Inputs and scope

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Factors driving investment planning

Gas demand and supply evolution Security of supply Creation and development of new entry and exit points • •    Competition development and gas integration

Scope

Investments involving at least 2 MS or impacting adjacent systems Take storage, LNG and CCGT projects into account

Challenge: diversity of investment practices in Member States

  Reliance on market mechanisms Vs planning Role of incentives 4

ERGEG approach to drafting the guidelines

• •    

Objectives of 10 year investment plan

Develop a shared vision of the future 

transparency

Diagnosis on obstacles to gas transit across Europe 

focus on cross border issues

Address priority developments and TSO projects 

visibility

Anticipation on future gas deficits and emergency procedures 

security of supply Status of the EU-10 YIP

 Built on

scenarios

on supply, demand and infrastructure development     Simulations of problems using an

model of the integrated network

Periodic revisions:

every 2 years Monitoring report

including justification of deviations between achieved and foreseen investments Binding issues at a national level 5

Methodology : Top down & bottom up

•

Top down: developing a European perspective

   EU energy dynamics and strategy Map of gas flows and international bottlenecks Risks of disruption (diagnosis + scenarios) •   Integration of national markets and European priorities

Bottom-up: from national to European pictures (GTE+ work)

Summary of national investment plans   Collection on national data on supply & demand Identification of investment gaps and technical and economic feasibility of necessary investment projects • •  Synthesis by ENTSOG

Coherence between national, regional and EU plans required Consultation of the market fundamental for consistency

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Way forward

• •

Active cooperation between ERGEG and GTE+ ERGEG framework guidelines, adoption process

  Under discussion within ERGEG Public consultation foreseen by March 2009 •    Objective: finalisation in May 2009

Future consultation procedures

Implement information collection procedures: obligation for stakeholders to provide the requested information to ENTSOG Consult on 10 year investment plan’s consistency 7