Transcript Title of presentation

10-year network development plan
ERGEG recommendations
Benoît ESNAULT
Commission de Régulation de l’Energie
17th Madrid Forum
Madrid, 15 January 2010
Overview of the ERGEG work on 10
Year Network Development Plan
• ERGEG’s approach
• Prepare the implementation of the 3rd package: ACER will have to give
an opinion on EU wide 10YNDP and monitor its implementation
• Focus on methodology and expected content
• ERGEG work started in 2008, in parallel with GTE+
• Documents published
• ERGEG recommendations, March 2009
• Evaluation of comments paper, November 2009
• Public consultation and workshops
• Online consultation from 25 March to 29 May 2009
• 1st ERGEG workshop on 29 April 2009
• 2nd ERGEG workshop on 27 October 2009
• Publication of ERGEG revised recommendations in the
beginning of 2010
• Network simulation project (ongoing)
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Recent regulatory developments
a key role for the 10 YNDP
3rd Package
Infrastructure
development related to
the single market
Prospective
EU 10 YNDP
 Scenarios and simulations
 Assessment of existing
infrastructures & projects
 Monitoring report
SoS Regulation
Infrastructure
standards for crisis
management
 Risk mitigation
Investment
notification
 Monitoring
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10 YNDP in the 3rd package
ACER and Gas Regulations
Community wide 10 year network development plan (EU 10 YNDP)
•The ENTSOG shall adopt and publish a EU 10 YNDP every 2 years (Art. 8 - Gas
Regulation)
•The ENTSOG shall conduct an extensive consultation process, at an early stage,
involving all relevant market participants (Art. 10 - Gas Regulation)
•The EU 10 YNDP shall include the modeling of the integrated network, scenario
development, a European supply and adequacy report and an assessment of the resilience of
the system (Art. 8 - Gas Regulation)
•The Agency shall provide an opinion on the EU 10 YNDP and monitor its
implementation (Art. 6 - ACER Regulation)
•The Agency shall review “national ten year network development plans” to assess
their consistency with the EU 10 YNDP (Art. 8 - Gas Regulation)
Regional Investment plans
•TSOs shall publish a regional investment plan every 2 years, and may take investment
decisions based on that regional investment plan (Art. 12 - Gas Regulation)
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Multiannual investment plans?
Perimeter of the region?
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10 YNDP in the 3rd package
Gas Directive
Individual TSOs 10 YNDP
• The obligations of the TSOs vary according to the unbundling model chosen by
the Member State
• The ISO has to comply with a 10 YNDP monitored by the NRA (Art. 14, Gas
Directive)
• ITO: NRA has to consult the users, examine consistency with the EU 10 YNDP
and may require amendments. NRA can take measures to ensure the realization
of an investment – Focus on three years ahead (Art. 22 Gas directive)
• NRA monitors investment plans of the TSOs and provide an assessment as
regards to their consistency with the EU 10 YNDP (Art. 41 Gas directive)
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ERGEG’s recommendations
• Objectives of the 10 year network development plan
• Provide a shared vision of the European gas dynamics to all stakeholders: tool
for transparency
• Identification of bottlenecks and investment gaps: beneficial to competition
and security of supply
• Content of the plan
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Built on assumptions and scenarios for supply/demand
Simulations of disruptions using a model of the integrated network
Map of gas flows and international bottlenecks
Include a monitoring report to identify deviations from the precedent plan
update on potential delays
• Methodology: combine top down & bottom up
• Top down: broad vision of the European gas dynamics, energy strategy and
risks, harmonization of assumptions and coherence of data (when possible)
• Bottom-up: collection of national data on supply & demand
• Importance of stakeholders consultation
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ERGEG Public consultation
Main conclusions
• 22 responses received published on http://www.energy-regulators.eu/
• Scope
• Include LNG and storage projects when cross border impact
• The EU 10 YNDP does not formally aim at influencing market dynamics
• Arbitrating between infrastructure projects could be difficult for ENTSOG
• Methodology
• Select a small number of scenarios including one based on national
forecasts and others on Community wide models
• Modelling: the model should be developed by ENTSOG in consultation with
stakeholders and consistently with the Gas Coordination Group.
• The bulk of data should be gathered at a national level – homogenisation of
data and review of their coherence at an EU level
• Harmonisation of the assumptions and definitions when possible –
assumptions on peak day and severe winter conditions should be published
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Beyond the 3rd package
10 YNDP and security of supply
• Synergies with TEN-E projects
• Contribute to identify priority infrastructures
• Security of Gas Supply Regulation project, impact on the 10YNDP
• Supply standards: supply for protected consumers guaranteed for 60 days
according to the 1 out of 20 rule
• Infrastructure standards: N-1 rule, reverse flows at all the IPs
• Risk assessment based on scenarios
• Infrastructure & supply standards will feed the 10YNDP; synergies
concerning risk assessment
• Relations with the Gas Coordination Group
• GCG could contribute to identify investment needs for security of supply
purposes
• Building the 10 YNDP is a collective process in which the GCG could play
an important role
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Conclusions
• ENTSOG will be responsible for the plan
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Implement the necessary means to be successful and associate its members
Scenarios and assumptions will have to be discussed with stakeholders
When announced, investment projects translate some commitment from TSOs
Provide elements on projects’ feasibility
• ERGEG expectations
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10 YNDP must be more than an aggregation of national plans
Be careful about the impact on the market
• Coherence between national, regional and EU wide investment plans
• Methodology: develop a pragmatic and flexible approach
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Learning by doing process, build on lessons learnt from GTE+ process and
dialogue with stakeholders
Avoid being too prescriptive about methodology from now
• Way forward
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Revised recommendations early 2010
Workshop on 26 January 2010
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Thank you!
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