Transcript Title of presentation

ERGEG first views on GTE+ national
production, storage and demand
scenarios
Dr. Benoît ESNAULT (CRE) and Dr. Stefanie NEVELING (BNetzA)
GTE+ 2nd Workshop on the European Ten Year Network Development
Statement, Brussels, 29 April, 2009
ERGEG recommendations on the 10year network development plan
• ERGEG recommendations on 10-year network development
plan
• ERGEG proposals focus on elements of the drafting process and expected
content
• Consider the EU gas dynamics and long term energy strategy
• Based on 3rd Package requirements and GTE+ work
• Top down: developing a European perspective
• Broad vision of the European gas dynamics, energy strategy and risks
• Map of gas flows and international bottlenecks: main cross-border issues,
including priority EU projects & main congestion points to be eliminated
• Bottom up: use national data to build a European picture
• Assessment of national investment plans
• Collection of national data on supply & demand
• Coherence between national, regional and EU wide investment
plans
GTE+ 2nd Workshop on the European 10-year network development statement, Brussels, 29th April
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ERGEG approach to scenarios
development
• Building a reliable picture of gas supply and demand
evolution requires addressing:
• Economic context
• Impact of energy policies and climate change mitigation on gas consumption
• Gas prices dynamics
• Specific gas variables
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Peak demand evolution
Development of storage and LNG facilities
Technical and economical feasibility of expansion projects
Scenarios developed for the electricity sector
• Develop several scenarios taking into account security
of supply simulations
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First assessment of GTE+ ´s
National Production Scenarios
• TSO‘s were asked to provide data on production
- Not all TSOs/Countries responded on this, e.g german TSOs
- Partly only linear extrapolation, no forecast, e.g. Austria
 Full participation of all TSOs/Countries important
• First assessment of some major production countries
- NL: Decline in production of 22% until 2018 compared to 2009
- UK: Decline in production of 49% until 2018 compared to 2009
 These numbers are roughly consistent with the
numbers of IEA‘s World Energy Outlook 2008
 ERGEG proposal: further analysis by European
Regulators could be useful
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First assessment of GTE+ ´s
Storage Scenarios
• TSOs were asked to provide data on storage capacity
- Not all TSOs/Countries responded on this, e.g Germany
- Some provided incomplete data, e.g Italy (only for 2009)
• In many countries storage capacity remains constant
e.g. Austria, Belgium, Bulgaria, Sweden
• In some countries storage capacity declines
e.g Netherlands (due to declining production)
• In some countries storage capacity increases
e.g France, UK, Spain
 In sum there is growing storage capacity of + 23%
(until 2018 compared to 2009)
 Data seem to be reasonable but further assessment could
be usefull
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First assessement on GTE+ ´s
Demand scenarios
• TSO‘s were asked to provide data on demand
- Not all TSOs/Countries responded on this, e.g. Romania, Portugal
• The majority of the TSOs/countries expect an increase in
demand/yearly consumption (until 2018 compared to 2009),
e.g.
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Austria: + 29%
France: + 13%
UK: + 15%
Italy: + 21%
• One country expects a decline in demand (Germany - 4%)
 Data difficult to assess because of unclear (probably
differing) underlying assumptions, e.g. economic growth,
oil price development; increase in CCGT.
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Preliminary conclusions
• ERGEG welcomes GTE+´s work on NDS as a suitable
first approach
• But: Complete data necessary by every TSO/country
• But: Consensus on key elements (underlying
assumptions), otherwise non-coherent forecasted
development in the different Member States
 Further coherent (top down) approach by
TSO´s/GTE+ desirable
 Further ERGEG assessment on scenarios and data
planned: Study on network simulation
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Thank you for your attention!
www.energy-regulators.eu
Mark your diary for the World Forum on Energy Regulation IV
October 18-21, 2009
Athens, Greece
www.worldforumiv.info
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