Growing Categories – By Growth

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Transcript Growing Categories – By Growth

U.S. Supermarket Trends
www.hoytnet.com
8912 East Pinnacle Peak Road • Scottsdale, AZ 85255
Phone (480) 513-0547 • Fax (480) 513-0548 • E-Mail: [email protected][email protected]
Today
 Consumer Trends
 Trade Trends
 Winning Business Models & Success Principles
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Consumer Trends –
Population & Lifestyle Changes
That Affect CPG Food Purchasing Decisions
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Key Trends
 Value Shopping – Has become a national obsession
 Time Pressures – Have changed what we eat, how we eat
and where we eat it
 Population Fragmentation – Is dictating the need to learn
how to market to different ethnic and age groups
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Value Shopping – Root Causes
2001 Distribution of Total U.S. Income By Population Fifths
Quintile
I
% Distribution of Income
20%
50.2%
40%
II
20%
23.0%
III
20%
14.6%
IV
20%
8.7%
40%
V
20%
Total U.S. Mean
3.5%
Mean Income
$146.0
73.2%
$66.8
Middle
Class
12.2%
$42.6
$25.5
$10.1
$58.2
Source: U.S. Census Bureau, 2003; Dept of Commerce
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Value Shopping – No Change In Sight
Mean Income Trends By Population Fifths, 1970-2001
(2001 Dollars – Per Household)
$140.0
$146.0
(+81%) Top 20%
$120.0
$100.0
$80.0
$80.6
(+50%)
$66.8
$60.0
58.2
$40.0 $44.5
35.9
$42.6
(+34%)
$25.5
(+28%)
$31.8
$20.0
$19.9
$0.0 $7. 3
1970
TOTAL US MEAN (+62%)
$10.1
(+38%)
2001
Source: US Census, Bureau of Labor Statistics, 2003. All data adjusted for inflation.
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Time Pressures – Root Causes
 75% of families now have two wage-earner incomes.
 65% of married women with children under six are in the
workforce.
 70% of working women say that the number of things
they have to do in a day is a big cause of stress.
 58% of consumers say convenience is a key determinant
of what they eat and where they eat it.
 40% of the population say they have no idea of what they
are having for dinner at 4:00 pm.
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Time Pressures – Impact On Family Meal
Preparation and Eating Habits:
The average time spent in meal preparation these days is less
than 20 minutes per day – down from 2.5 hours in 1960.
Time Spent Preparing Meals
3.0
2.5 Hours
2.5
2.0
1.5
1 Hour
1.0
20 Minutes
0.5
0.0
1960
1980
2000
Source: National Eating Trends Data
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For Most, Food is Now a “Low Involvement”
Purchase
Food as a % of Personal Consumption $,1960-2000
30
25
20
15
10
5
0
1960
Food
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1970
Food at Home
1980
1990
2000
Purchased Meals & Beverages
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Net On Time Pressures
 “Quick, easy and convenient” now drives the
strategy
 Must not only include “with it” product
assortments but store operations – how fast the
customer can get out the door
 Retailers must think of themselves as facilitators,
not just conduits for products
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Population Fragmentation Will Dictate The Need To
Market Discreetly To Very Different Population Segments
Chief among these are:
 Young Singles
 Hispanics
 Seniors
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Young Singles Have Emerged As A Force In Their Own Right :
2000 vs. 1970 Changing Household Size in the U.S.
1970
2000
105
81%
63
69%
40%
24%
Total HH
(Millions)
Family HH
(% of total HH)
Married HH
w/child
(% of total HH)
Between 1970 and 2000:
 The average size of U.S. households shrank from 3.14 to 2.62 persons
 Households with 5 or more persons disintegrated from 21% to 10% (52% drop)
 At the same time, one person households (singles/divorced/widowed) catapulted
from 17% to 31% (82% increase)
Source: US Census, Bureau of Labor Statistics, 2003. All data adjusted for inflation.
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The Hispanic Population Is Currently The Fastest Growing
Segment of the American Public and Is Expected To Double By 2050
Projected Population Growth by Segment, 2000 - 2050
2000
Pop. Segment
2050
MM
%
MM
%
194
70.5
213
50.7
110
Hispanic
32
11.6
98
23.3
306
Black
35
12.7
59
14.0
168
Asian/So. Pacific
11
4.0
38
9.0
345
3
1.2
12
2.8
400
257
100.0
420
100.0
152
White non-Hispanic
Other
Totals
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Index vs. 2000
13
Seniors Will Comprise the Largest Single
Segment Of The U.S. Population By 2020
Growth of 55+ Population Between 2000 and 2020
(As a % of total pop.)
30% of
total pop.
120
22% of
total pop.
100
80
97.5MM
60.5MM
60
+61% vs. 2000
40
20
0
2000 (275M Base)
2020 (325MM Base)
+18% vs. 2000
Source: U.S. Census Bureau
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Net on Population Fragmentation:
 Retailers must change their “all things to all people” and
“build it and they will come” approaches and instead
become experts at targeting specific consumer segments
 Mining one’s own data and developing close relationships
with one’s heavy users is already the peremptory starting
point
 Being willing to target and settle for a smaller piece of the
pie is currently proving to be a winning formula
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Translation to Real World Positioning:
Pick Your Ground and Plant Your Flag:
Aging Affluent
 Favor retailers who cater to taste/
lifestyles
 Variety more important than price
 Prefer smaller stores/personal service
 Not a “deal” shopper
 Courtesy and “experience” are key
Hours
0
40
Price Calibrators
 Completely disloyal
 Commodity vs. quality
 Cherry-picking an art
 Service, decor unimportant
 A continually moving target
Income
$146.0
$66.8
$42.6
$25.5
$10.1
Income
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Time Calibrators
 One-stop shopping
 Fast service is everything
 Full variety is key
 Premium quality
 Blind to deals
Hours
120
80
Up & Comers
 Value-channel stock-up shopper
 Use supermarkets for weekly variety
fill-in
 Fast service
 Key P.L. shopper
 Growing families, growing income —
soon to be affluent
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These Trends Are Easy To Spot Just By
Looking At The Current Fastest Growers
Top 10 Fastest Growing CPG Categories In 2001
2001 Dollar
Sales ($MM)
2001 % Dollar
Growth
2001 Dollar
Growth
Bottled Water
$2,282.2
19.8%
$377.2
Deli-Self Serve
$3,446.1
10.7%
$333.1
Butter
$1,276.5
23.9%
$246.2
Yogurt
$2,289.3
11.0%
$226.0
Frozen Novelties
$1,941.2
10.5%
$184.5
Refrigerated Entrees
$865.0
22.7%
$160.0
Unbreaded Frozen Shrimp
$489.2
36.9%
$129.2
Refrigerated shakes/drinks
$188.2
91.9%
$90.1
Health bars and sticks
$285.9
40.5%
$82.4
Diet Carb Beverages-Rem
$881.6
10.1%
$80.9
Source: AC Nielsen Strategic Planner: Food, Drug & Mass excluding Wal-Mart. 52 Weeks ending 12/29/2001
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Trade Trends
The Sea Change in U.S. Retailing and the
Key Trade Factors that are Driving It
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The U.S. Food Retailing Landscape in 2003
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Outlet Saturation
1950’s
Today
 No Fast Food
120K Convenience Stores
 No Mass Merchandisers
32K Supermarkets
 No Clubs
6K Mass Merchandisers
 No Supercenters
20K Drug Stores
 Independents Dominated
Drug
1K Club Stores
 A&P Dominated Food
6K Dollar Stores
 Most CPG-type Products
Sold Through
Supermarkets
McDonalds
Burger King
Wendy’s
Jack-in-The-Box
 Most Meals Prepared and
Eaten at Home
45% of Food Dollars
Spent Away From Home
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SKU Proliferation
SKU Growth: 1945 - 2000
60,000
50,000
40,000
30,000
20,000
10,000
0
1945-1964
1965-1980
New Food Items:
1981-1995
2000
1980 = 2,689
2000 = 16,390
Source: Insight Out of Chaos, 2001
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Mass Availability Of Same Items In Different
Channels
% Buyers In
Grocery
Non-Choc. Candy
Chocolate Candy
Artificial Sweeteners
Ground Coffee
Dried Fruit Snacks
HH Cleaners
Toilet Tissue
Paper Towels
Liquid Soap
Soft Drinks
79.4%
83.6%
80.2%
90.2%
83.2%
78.6%
86.4%
77.8%
55.4%
97.5%
Mass
62.0%
58.0%
21.8%
30.0%
22.8%
42.9%
50.3%
25.1%
45.0%
44.7%
Super
Centers
18.0%
16.6%
8.1%
11.3%
7.2%
12.1%
16.5%
6.6%
11.6%
16.9%
Clubs
12.6%
10.4%
11.9%
15.5%
12.7%
11.4%
10.4%
10.0%
10.3%
9.2%
Drug
C-Stores
43.5%
5.1%
5.2%
7.7%
4.2%
14.7%
19.8%
9.5%
9.9%
24.1%
9.5%
1.5%
0.4%
1.0%
0.8%
0.8%
1.6%
0.6%
0.2%
20.4%
Source: Scarborough Research, 1999-2000
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Price-Based Competition
Channel Pricing Index on Selected Consumables
(Scottsdale, AZ, 8/7/2002)
Formula 409
Pine Sol
Pledge
Lysol Disinfecting Spray
Windex
Arrowhead Water
Tea Bags
Maxwell House Coffee
Sweet ‘n Low
Equal
Hershey’s Kisses
M&M’s
Bath Tissue – 36-48 Roll
Bath Tissue – 12-24 Roll
Napkins
Towels (roll)
Food
Supercenters
Clubs
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
61
92
68
66
59
92
49
71
92
72
66
65
54
73
60
77
53
58
57
54
37
65
45
N/A
43
48
67
54
41
57
39
73
Source: Hoyt & Company Store Checks w/o 8/7/2002.
Largest sizes carried indexed to Food on a per unit (oz/sheet/count) basis.
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Other Trade Trend Tidbits:
 The most successful new product introductions are those
that save time or improve appearance or health
 RFID – radio frequency identification tags – on the
launching pad and inevitable
 Irradiated Meats – starting slowly but also inevitable
 Consolidation has slowed as supermarkets struggle to
defend against the Wal-Mart juggernaut and try to absorb
what they have already bought
Everyone installing on-premise eat-in facilities
• HEB with “Good to Go”
• Walgreen’s “Welcome Home Café”
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Value Retailers
Supercenters, Clubs and Dollar Stores
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Wal-Mart’s Expansion into Food
 The most significant factor in food retailing since the
advent of self service in 1916:
• Invents nothing but perfects everything
• Does nothing different but tries to do everything better
• Disdains emotion but rewards pragmatism, commitment and
discipline
 Between 1980 and 2001 Wal-Mart grew 35x’s faster than
the market:
1980
2001
Multiple vs. 1980
Total US Retail Sales
$957B
$3,500B
3.6 X
Wal-Mart (US only)
$1.2B
$150B
125 X
Walmart vs. Total US
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Wal-Mart’s Expansion into Food
 Wal-Mart is now the nation’s #1 food provider with 2002
food sales of approximately $80B (vs. $50B for #2)
 Objective is 30% share of every business it enters
 This week, USA Today reported one analyst’s forecast that
supermarkets’ share of the grocery business will drop to
34% by 2010 from its current 53% with the bulk lost to
Wal-Mart
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The Heart of the Wal-Mart Competitive
Advantage – Low Operating Costs
Wal-Mart vs. Leading Supermarket Financials: 2002
Wal-Mart
Kroger
Albertson’s
Safeway
Sales
$81B
$53B
$36B
$32B
Gross Margin
22.2%
27.0%
29.2%
31.1%
Operating Costs
16.6%
22.1%
24.1%
25.9%
Operating Profits
5.2%
4.9%
5.1%
5.2%
Net Income
3.3%
2.2%
1.4%
(2.5%)
Source: Company SEC filings, Kroger & Albertson’s through 3 quarters, Wal-Mart &
Safeway reflect full FY2002
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What Wal-Mart Has Done to Achieve its
Growth . . . Beyond Price
 Multi-format: Discount, Supercenters, Club, Neighborhood
Stores and on-line to address consumer purchase occasions
 Maintains and USES a massive database to understand its
consumers and their shopping behavior
• Assorts stores based on demographics
• Allows regional variances in products offered
 Retail-tainment – “Fun place to Shop”
 Bonds with suppliers to improve efficiency/lower prices
 Works to become part of the local community
• Offers parking lots for local fundraisers (HS car washes, etc)
• Charitable donations to local causes
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Other Winning Formats – Club Stores
 2001 combined food sales of approximately $38.5B
SAM’s
Costco
BJ’s
$B
# Stores
$18.4
$17.7
$2.4
498
363
130
 Business Model: Membership fees contribute as much as 80% of
operating profits enabling cost + 10% retails
 Demographic Target: Small businesses and affluent consumers
 Positioning: High quality national brands and private labels at 1030% discounts to average market prices
 Average Transaction Size: $80 - $85
 Penetration grew from 49 to 55% between 1996 and 2001; trip
frequency grew from 8 to 10
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Club Service Offerings: Customer Retention
and Margin Enhancement
Club Membership Services: 2000
Costco Wholesale
Consumer Group
Business
Exec. Consumer, Business
•
•
•
•
•
•
•
•
•
•
•
•
BJ’s Wholesale
$45 Consumer Group
$35 Business
$100
Executive Membership
2% Cash Back
Business Credit Card Processing
Business Equipment Leasing
Business Health Care
Business Line of Credit
Business Payroll Processing
All Members
Auto Buying
Business, Personal Checks &
Forms
Long Distance
Mortgage
Real Estate
Smart Office
•
•
•
•
•
•
•
•
•
•
•
•
•
SAM’s Club
$40 Consumer Group
$35 Business
Elite Consumer, Business
Premier Benefits
Auto Buying
Business Credit Card Processing
Business Payroll
Business, Personal Checks &
Forms
Car Rentals
Embroidered Apparel Service
Export
Extended Warranty
Healthcare Network
Long Distance
Pre-paid Phone Cards
Real Estate
Vacations
$35
$35
$100
•
•
•
•
•
•
Elite Membership
Roadside Assistance
Home Services
Internet Banking
Insurance
Savings Guide
Prescription Drug Program
•
•
•
•
•
•
•
•
All Members
Auto Buying
Travel Program
Boat & Recreational Buying
Long Distance
Business Checks, Forms
Mail Order pharmacy
Internet
Time Management
Source: WCF, 2000
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Other Winning Formats – Dollar Stores
 $15B channel dominated by Dollar General, Family Dollar and Dollar
Tree
Dollar General
Family Dollar
Dollar Tree
Top
100 Rank
Sales
% Prev Year
# Stores
% Per Year
39
53
90
$5.3B
$3.7B
$2.0B
+17.0
+17.0
+17.0
5,540
4,141
1,975
+10.8
+12.3
+14.2
 Business Model: Quality closeouts, liquidation merchandise priced at
30-40% below market averages
 Demographic Target: $30 - $50K, retirees and those on fixed incomes
 Positioning: “A new market beneath the standard discount market”
 Average transaction size: $9.00 (with most items priced around an
even $1.00)
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Dollar Stores (cont’d)
 Big sellers:
• Greeting cards for $1.00 (vs. $2.00 - $2.95 elsewhere)
• Soaps and detergents
• Gift bags
• Wraps
• Hair care
• Videos
• Wine (in states where legal)
 Now beginning to focus on food: Dollar General just added coolers in
1,400 stores to stock refrigerated and frozen.
 While targeted at the economically disadvantaged, Dollar Stores are
now starting to attract the affluent as everyone is looking for a
bargain these days.
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Impact on U.S. Supermarkets
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Trip Loss to Other Channels
Shopper Trips By Channel (1996 – 2001)
(Avg. # Trips/Channel/Year)
Traditional Formats
100
90
80
70
60
50
40
30
20
10
0
Value and/or Convenience Formats
95
75
29
Drug
1996
2001
180
167
11
13
23
16 15
Grocery
Total Trips
Down 2 Billion
Trips in Five
Years
8 10
Discount
Clubs
13 15
6
C&G
Dollar
Stores
Supercenter
Source: AC Nielsen Homescan
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35
Daily Conversions to Supercenters
Share/Share Chg of Supercenter Shopper $ by Channel
-0.6
A/O
30.9%
GROCERY $2MM+
30.5%
-1.2
+0.1
DOLLAR STORES
1.2%
+0.0
DRUG STORES
3.4%
CONV/GAS
1.0%
-0.2
WAREHOUSE
CLUBS
5.9%
+0.3
SUPERCENTERS
13.4%
MASS MERCH
W/O SUPERS
13.7%
-0.5
+2.1
Source: ACNielsen Cross Outlet*Facts 2000; Total US
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Huge Share Losses in Traditional Categories
Sales Lost Over 9 Year Period
Total of 9 Categories: Detergents, Hair Care, Paper Towels,
Dentifrice, Diapers, Coffee, Bath Tissue, Fabric Softener, Peanut Butter
Channel Share Trends, 1999 vs. 1989*
1989/1990
1998/1999
Grocery
75.6%
54.5%
Mass Merchants
13.1%
26.9%
Warehouse/Clubs
3.5%
9.7%
All Other Outlets
7.8%
9.0%
* 52 weeks ending in fiscal year
Source: Procter & Gamble and “Growing The Center Store” AC Nielsen
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Success Principles
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Value Retailers’ Success Ingredients – Common
Characteristics
 Business models that automatically differentiate
 No deviation from original business model
 Focus on a specific consumer group
 Fluid merchandising that maximizes quick rotation &
change – quick in-and-out, frequent “surprises”
 Below-market acquisition costs, low operating expenses &
below-market pricing consistency
 Leverage supplier dollars to keep prices low vs. enhance
profitability
 Willingness to settle for part of the pie – none attempt to
be all things to all people all of the time
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Four Supermarkets Who Buck the Trends
 H. E. Butt (San Antonio, TX) – 295 stores, $8.7B
 Publix (Lakeland, FL) – 697 stores, $4.8B
 Wegman’s (Rochester, NY) – 79 stores, $3.1B
 Stew Leonard’s (Norwalk, CT) – 3 stores $200MM
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What These Four Companies Have in Common
 Long-term thinking: All follow a strategy and resist reacting to daily
threats
 Customer Focus: Base assortment & merchandising decisions on what
their customers want, not on what their competitors are doing or on
the latest hot deal
 Strong Community Ties: All participate in & contribute to local
community events which they aggressively leverage in in-store
merchandising and advertising activities
 Market-Leading Innovation: On-premise restaurants, take-out food,
non-food merchandise “surprises”, self-scanning & self-checkouts and
“traffic directors”
 Well-trained & Courteous Employees: The customer is always king
 Store as a Brand: Customers know what to expect and can “trust” the
experience on every visit
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Moral of story:
It’s not just price; it’s a
combination of factors, carefully
blended and balanced to satisfy a
particular consumer need or
aspiration. Each retailer has to
search within its own strengths to
find the right formula. There are
no easy answers.
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We Appreciate The Time and Attention You
Have Given Us Today
Specifically, we want to thank Alan Nissalke and the
American Logistics Association for inviting us and
trust that this has been both fun and helpful.
www.hoytnet.com
8912 East Pinnacle Peak Road • Scottsdale, AZ 85255
Phone (480) 513-0547 • Fax (480) 513-0548 • E-Mail: [email protected][email protected]
Top 15 “Quick, Easy, Convenient” Categories
Based on Category Dollar Growth
Sales
($ MM)
Supermarket
Share
% Growth
vs. YA
$ Growth
($MM)
$8564.99
62.5%
7.2%
$575.3
DELI-SELF SERVE
3446.09
80.4%
10.7%
333.1
Potato Chips
2548.96
69.5%
7.3%
173.4
Sliced lunchmeat ref pkgd
2479.26
77.4%
7.4%
170.8
Precut salad mix/greens
1853.69
85.2%
9.6%
162.4
864.99
81.3%
22.7%
160.0
1724.31
82.7%
8.3%
132.1
479.24
77.0%
36.9%
129.2
BAKED GOODS FZN
1434.07
78.6%
8.9%
117.2
Frozen entrees-Italian 1 food
1215.91
78.2%
9.5%
105.5
Health bars & sticks
285.88
44.5%
40.5%
82.4
Frozen poultry
883.42
62.0%
8.5%
69.2
Ready-To-Serve Entrees
135.81
74.8%
90.7%
64.6
Snack crackers
496.64
61.2%
13.7%
59.8
Creamers-liquid
517.58
84.5%
13.0%
59.5
SNACKS CATEGORY
Refrigerated Entrees
Shredded cheese
Fzn unbreaded shrimp
Source: Progressive Grocer Annual Consumer Expenditures Study, 9/02
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Top 15 Ethnic Categories
Based on Category Dollar Growth
Sales
($ MM)
Supermarket
Share
% Growth
vs. YA
$ Growth
($MM)
$803.92
83.8%
10.4%
$75.7
Frozen entrees-Mexican-1 food
461.23
68.8%
19.4%
74.9
Frozen entrees-Oriental-1 food
437.94
76.2%
10.3%
40.9
RTS -Oriental 2 foods
234.64
83.3%
15.2%
31.0
Canned Veg-tomatoes
332.95
79.4%
9.8%
29.7
Fruit drinks canned
120.28
71.7%
32%
29.2
Juice/drinks
343.17
68.1%
9.0%
28.3
Tequila
370.83
29.6%
8.2%
28.1
93.34
71.2%
25.1%
18.7
Olives-black
222.36
81.4%
7.5%
15.5
Peppers
175.33
76.3%
9.4%
15.1
Dry-mix Mexican shells
169.21
84.8%
7.3%
11.5
Cooking sauce
137.22
78.2%
9%
11.3
RTS - Mexican specialties
76.93
80.3%
12.5%
8.5
Frozen entrees-Oriental-2 food
20.76
84.1%
66%
8.3
Dry-mix Mexican tortillas
Sauces-Misc SS
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Top 15 Health Categories
Based on Category Dollar Growth
Sales
($ MM)
Supermarket
Share
% Growth
vs. YA
$ Growth
($MM)
$2282.17
59.4%
19.8%
$377.2
YOGURT CATEGORY
2280.34
83.2%
11.0%
226.0
Yogurt
2185.06
83.4%
9.7%
193.2
Diet Carbonated Bev
881.56
79.6%
10.1%
80.9
Hot Cereal
834.38
79.2%
7.1%
55.3
95.28
77.3%
51.2%
32.3
237.19
57.5%
11.3%
24.1
Water purifiers/filters
55.62
14.0%
10.3%
5.2
Refrigerated veg juice
10.62
59.2%
80.3%
4.7
Insect repellents
36.79
24.3%
11.4%
3.8
Dietetic Choc Candy
15.25
27.7%
24.5%
3.0
Wasp & hornet killers
17.71
30.9%
20.3%
3.0
Nectars
24.74
93.0%
8.5%
1.9
Refrigerated pineapple juice
10.28
96.1%
22.0%
1.9
Flying insect spray
12.99
38.6%
12.3%
1.4
2.27
na
123.8%
1.3
BOTTLED WATER CATEGORY
Yogurt shakes/drinks
Sugar substitutes
Roach traps & motels
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Top 15 “Personal Indulgence” Categories
Based on Category Dollar Growth
Sales
($ MM)
Supermarket
Share
% Growth
vs. YA
$ Growth
($MM)
$1276.46
81.4%
23.9%
$246.2
FROZEN NOVELTIES
1941.18
81.7%
10.5%
184.5
Fresh cakes
1370.04
61.7%
7.6%
96.8
Packaged sausage - dinner
1152.09
80.1%
9.0%
95.1
Shakes & drinks/Refrigerated
188.23
84.0%
91.9%
90.1
Sour cream
622.70
85.3%
10.9%
61.2
Cream-refrigerated
426.95
83.7%
14.5%
54.1
Flavored milk - refrigerated
452.13
80.0%
12.9%
51.7
Specialty/imported cheese
408.78
77.8%
14.3%
51.1
Fresh rolls
643.73
77.3%
7.2%
43.2
Natural cheese
388.68
81.0%
10.5%
36.9
Fresh bakery
133.31
73.8%
33.4%
33.4
Natural swiss cheese
164.36
75.2%
23.9%
31.7
Charcoal
373.15
56.6%
8.4%
28.9
Frozen desserts
238.12
84.0%
11.8%
25.1
Butter
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