Transcript Cotton Results

Global Economic Prospects, 2007
Managing the Next Wave of Globalization in North Africa
John Panzer
World Bank
February 2007
Medium-term outlook

Growth in developing countries will remain strong,
boosted by improved policies and favorable financial
conditions

Growing role of developing countries in the next 25
years

Significant opportunities –yet countries and firms will
have to work hard to seize them
Developing countries share in global economy will rise
as global integration intensifies
GDP of high-income and developing countries
US$2001 trn
80
$72 trn
70
60
High-income
countries
50
40
30
Developing
countries
20
31%
10
16%
0
1980
Source: World Bank simulations with Linkage model.
23%
2005
2030
But at the global level, not everyone may take full advantage
Per capita incomes as percent of high-income countries
40
2030
35
30
2005
25
20
15
10
5
0
East-Asia South Asia Europe &
Pacific
Central
Asia
Middle
East &
North
Africa
SubLatin
Saharan America &
Africa
Carib.
Note: Ratio of PPP-adjusted per capita incomes relative to high-income average. PPP is fixed at base year (2001) level.
Source: World Bank simulations with Linkage model.
Realizing the potential of global integration requires an
affirmative policy response – domestically and globally


Domestic policies crucial to attract knowledge, technology and investment to
accelerate growth

Savings (opportunities from population transition)

Mobility of resources – capital and people (protect workers-not jobs)

Leverage the demand and resources of the global economy
Multilateral collaboration



Remove barriers: Doha Development Agenda
Open Regionalism
Use development aid to support integration
To take full advantage of global growth, North Africa must integrate
further in the global economy in goods trade
Exports of goods (excluding oil) as share of world trade, country averages
1.40%
16 High Performers
1.20%
1.00%
0.80%
0.60%
0.40%
0.20%
North Africa - 6
Source: Staff calculations, based on data from IMF World Economic Outlook
04
20
02
20
00
20
98
19
96
19
94
19
92
19
90
19
88
19
86
19
84
19
82
19
19
80
0.00%
High performers also expanded market share in
services…but North Africa has not
Exports of services as share of world trade, country averages
0.90%
16 High Performers
0.80%
0.70%
0.60%
0.50%
0.40%
North Africa - 6
0.30%
0.20%
0.10%
04
20
02
20
00
20
98
19
96
19
94
19
92
19
90
19
88
19
86
19
84
19
82
19
19
80
0.00%
High growth countries use global production chains to
drive exports…North Africa improving but lags
Share of parts and components in total exports of goods and services
12.00%
10.00%
16 High Performers
8.00%
6.00%
4.00%
North Africa - 6
2.00%
04
20
02
20
00
20
98
19
96
19
94
19
92
19
90
19
88
19
86
19
84
19
82
19
19
80
0.00%
Source: Staff calculations, based on data from IMF World Economic Outlook and United Nations COMTRADE
High growth countries have been successful
in attracting FDI, but North Africa’s share is
declining
Annual FDI inflows as percent of all FDI
flows to low and middle income countries,
country averages
5.00%
4.50%
4.00%
16 High Performers
3.50%
3.00%
2.50%
2.00%
1.50%
1.00%
North Africa - 6
0.50%
Source: Staff calculations based on UNCTAD World Investment Report
04
20
02
20
00
20
98
19
96
19
94
19
92
19
90
19
88
19
86
19
84
19
82
19
19
80
0.00%
How can North Africa capitalize on these opportunities?
Tariff reforms must go further
Unweighted average tariffs
30.00%
25.00%
20.00%
North Africa
15.00%
12 High
Performers *
10.00%
5.00%
0.00%
1995
2005
*) Due to data limitations, Maghreb countries only comprise Algeria, Egypt, Morocco and Tunisia. In the case of Algeria and M orocco, 1997 tariff
data had to be used instead of 1995. The group of high performers was restricted to the 12 countries for which tariff data wa s available.
Source: UNCTAD, TRAINS
Services liberalization is needed to promote trade and
investment flows, cut costs and drive key productivity gains.



Maghreb lags behind comparator countries in contestability of key service sectors
Liberalization of backbone services is essential to improve competitiveness
(telecom, financial, transport, energy)
Regulatory reform also needed to improve regulatory framework and service
efficiency
Source: World Bank
Reducing Logistics costs is essential for making North
Africa more competitive
Logistics Perception Indicators
4.5
4
3.5
3
2.5
2
1.5
1
0.5
0
SIN 1 GRC
29
Source: World Bank
THA
31
CHL TUR
32
34
POL
40
JOR
52
TUN MRT MOR
60
67
94
EGY
97
SEN
101
YEM
112
ALG
140
The Way Forward – Policies to Support
Export Growth and Competitiveness
Reduce tariffs and non-tariff barriers
 Integration and harmonization with EU and
neighbors through open regionalism
 Reduce cost of backbone services through
liberalization and competition
 To extent possible focus on protecting workers
but not jobs
